NBA DFS Plays: Wednesday 7/14

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Here we go with the single-game slate for Bucks-Suns Game 2 on Thursday. The Bucks are listed as 4.5 point home favorites with a 221 over/under on PointsBet. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 ET. 

In the sections below, we will run through the top overall plays, appealing bargains, and best strategy when assembling a single-game lineup for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo.

NOTES

Dario Saric is OUT. Cam Johnson, Torrey Craig, and/or Frank Kaminsky could get a few more minutes. Saric was only playing around 10-13 minutes, so spreading that playing time across multiple players probably won’t move the needle for DFS purposes.  

TOP PLAYS

Giannis Antetokounmpo - PF - Milwaukee

It’s safe to say that the knee injury is fully behind him. Antetokounmpo has rolled out 68 and 71 fantasy points respectively over the last two games, and I don’t see a reason to fade him as the top fantasy scorer again tonight. Giannis has posted 40+ points with 12+ boards over the last pair of games, and you better believe he’ll come out aggressive while trying to even the series at home. Go ahead and grab him as your Captain / MVP/ Megastar. 

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Jrue Holiday - PG - Milwaukee

Milwaukee’s big three came through last game, and a similar story could easily play out tonight. The Bucks’ offense is so concentrated through Antetokounmpo, Middleton, and Holiday that you can comfortably take all three in the same lineup. Holiday has notched 44+ fantasy points in two straight games, and he has accessible upside through points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals. Jrue shot much better last game (8-14 FG, 5-10 3PT), and another performance like that would make him the second-highest fantasy producer behind Giannis. 

Chris Paul - PG - Phoenix

Devin Booker has the highest upside outside of Antetokounmpo on this slate, but he’s pretty expensive when considering the wide range of fantasy outcomes. Paul is priced similar to Booker and Middleton on all three DFS sites, but he’s actually cheaper than that duo on DraftKings. CP3 and the Suns flopped in Game 3, and the underwhelming fantasy total was somewhat blowout-related. That shouldn’t be the case again tonight, so we’ll bank on Paul resuming his 40+ minute workload while looking to maintain the 44 FPPG average over his six previous outings. 

BARGAINS

Cameron Johnson - SF - Phoenix

Johnson is one of the best bargains of the night. It doesn’t matter which site you are looking at, he’s a nice value choice on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo alike. Johnson is averaging 24 minutes and 20 fantasy points per contest in this series, and that’s a realistic baseline once again. His fantasy profile stands out compared to similarly priced bargains like Pat Connaughton, P.J. Tucker, and others. 

Jae Crowder - PF - Phoenix

Crowder has produced 32+ fantasy points in two straight games. Because of that, his salary has risen on some DFS sites (ahem - DraftKings). I still believe Crowder is a strong value choice on FanDuel while holding some merit on Yahoo as well. He’s in the conversation on DraftKings, although the salary is cumbersome over there. Crowder’s fantasy ability usually comes down to making three-pointers (which he has been doing), but it’s encouraging to see him grab 16 boards over the last two games combined. Playing 32-36+ minutes doesn’t hurt either. 

ADDITIONAL NOTES

Brook Lopez (C - MIL) didn’t really get in on the fun for Game 3, scoring just 15 fantasy points in 21 minutes. I’m guessing that was more a product of the blowout than a sign of things to come. Lopez is an interesting tournament asset while hoping he can rediscover his 30+ FP upside from earlier in this series.  

This entire slate could swing with Devin Booker (SG - PHX). He has the ability to compete with Giannis as the top fantasy scorer, or he could fade into the background if his shot isn’t falling. I’m not sure which version we’ll see tonight, but Booker could have some tournament leverage with people shying away due to a disappointing effort in Game 3.  

Pat Connaughton (SG - MIL) and P.J. Tucker (PF - MIL) are two more bargains to keep an eye on. Honestly, I’m tired of writing about them for DFS purposes throughout the playoffs. You know the deal here: both of these guys are nothing but value fillers to round out your lineup. Neither is known for their fantasy production, but they could make something happen within a 30-minute role.