NBA DFS Plays: Thursday 7/1

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Here we go with the single-game slate for Bucks-Hawks Game 5 on Monday. The Bucks are listed as 3 point home favorites with a 214.5 over/under. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 ET.

In the sections below, we will run through the top overall plays, appealing bargains, and best strategy when assembling a single-game lineup for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo.

NOTES

Giannis Antetokounmpo is DOUBTFUL. Giannis left with a knee injury after playing 24 minutes last game. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday will see a boost in usage, while Bobby Portis should get more opportunities as well. *UPDATE: Giannis Antetokounmpo is out as expected.

Trae Young is QUESTIONABLE. If Young ends up playing, there’s a decent chance he’ll be less than 100%. If he’s out, then Lou Williams and company will take on a bigger role. Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kevin Huerter, and Cam Reddish would see a boost as well. *UPDATE: Trae Young has been ruled out as suspected.

Clint Capela is QUESTIONABLE. There’s optimism that he will play through the injury, but we’ll need confirmation closer to tip-off. *UPDATE: Clint Capela will play.

TOP PLAYS

Khris Middleton - SF - Milwaukee

As mentioned earlier, Antetokounmpo is doubtful for this game. It’s going to be the Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday show in this crucial Game 5. Those two were very strong fantasy plays even with Antetokounmpo doing his thing, and now they will need to pick up the extreme usage void of their MVP. Middleton already hit 56+ fantasy points in three of his last six games, and he’s poised to go off tonight. He’s the best candidate for your top pick in this single-game slate.

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Jrue Holiday - PG - Milwaukee

Middleton is the top pick tonight according to our NBA DFS Optimizer, but Jrue Holiday isn’t far behind. I’m assuming that Middleton will be the most popular Captain/MVP/SuperStar, so taking Holiday in that role could give you some leverage in tournaments. Holiday’s over/under props tonight look like this: 22.5 points, 9.5 assists, 5.5 rebounds. Middleton has been outperforming him lately, but Jrue will be asked to initiate more of Milwaukee’s offense with Giannis out. Both of them make for fantastic picks tonight, it just comes down to sequencing them within the multiplier bonus. Middleton is the chalk top pick while Holiday represents GPP leverage.

BARGAINS

Lou Williams - SG - Atlanta

If Trae Young is out, then Lou Williams is an easy pick - potentially even climbing as high as your third multiplier spot ... If Young plays, there’s still some tournament value in Lou, assuming the Hawks will utilize him to relieve Trae at less than 100%. Sure, the salary has increased for Williams, but it’s nowhere near offsetting his upside if Young is out. That goes without saying after his 41 FP performance on Tuesday. *UPDATE: Trae Young has been ruled out. Williams is set for another big night.

Bobby Portis - PF - Milwaukee

Portis is easy to like with Giannis doubtful. He’s cheap with plenty of upside and we are expecting more minutes from him tonight. Granted, Portis didn’t cash in on Giannis’ early departure last game, putting up only 13 fantasy points in 20 minutes. I don’t think it’s a stretch that he’ll see around 25 minutes tonight, which puts him in a nice position to succeed. Portis is not shy on offense, and he should have plenty of opportunities to make his mark on that side of the ball. Roster him with confidence as a utility pick tonight.

ADDITIONAL NOTES

Brook Lopez (C - MIL) hasn’t been good this series. Part of that is because he’s only averaging 24 minutes per game vs. Atlanta. I think we’ll see that boosted (at least) over 30 tonight. Antetokounmpo’s minutes need to trickle into several players, and I believe Lopez will see a boost. We know he can shoot threes and block shots, giving him upside for tournaments.

Let’s talk about Clint Capela (C - ATL). He’s questionable, but there’s a decent chance he plays tonight. Meanwhile, his price keeps dropping on DFS sites. Maybe the Hawks will be able to feed him more minutes while not worrying about mismatches now that Giannis is doubtful. This could definitely be an interesting buy-low opportunity for the ATL big man. *UPDATE: Clint Capela will play as expected.

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