This has been one of the strangest weeks of scheduling I've ever seen. We had almost every team in action on Monday, Wednesday and Friday but had virtually no one playing on Tuesday and Thursday. This is actually one of the few regular slates, with seven games making up this Saturday card. Unfortunately, only four make up the main slate beginning at 8ET. Nevertheless, there's still plenty to discuss and numerous great options, so let's get started with the greatest shooter of all time!
Stephen Curry, GSW vs. HOU ($47)
You've been losing money if you haven't used point guards against the Rockets. Houston has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing PGs this season, which is precisely what they did last year as well. That's no surprise since they sit 25th in points allowed and 28th in defensive efficiency. It's not like we need an excellent matchup to use Curry anyway, scoring at least 40 Yahoo points in all but one game this season. He's also got a 51-point average for the year, dropping a season-high 75.2 Y! points in this matchup just two weeks ago. With all that said, if Curry is rested in this back-to-back, be sure to get Jordan Poole into your lineup!
Collin Sexton, UTA vs. POR ($16)
It's hard to understand why Yahoo is keeping Sexton below $20. This guy was a $25 player as a starting point guard in Cleveland, and he's stepped into the same role in Utah. It took an injury to Mike Conley (leg) to get him that job, but Sexton has responded with the best stretch of his season. In fact, Sexton has at least 27 Y! points in five straight games, posting a 32-point average in that span. Not many $16 players are averaging 20 Y! points per game, but it's no surprise since this is the starting point guard for one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA.
Guard to Avoid
Markelle Fultz, ORL at TOR ($13)
We actually think Fultz will be a good value in this price range shortly, but there's no chance he plays here. Markelle started at point guard on Friday, dropping 22 Yahoo points across 30 minutes. We expect that to be a regular thing in the future, but this has been one of the most injury-prone players in the NBA. He's only played in more than 19 games one year since being drafted in 2017! He will likely be sitting here in the second half of a back-to-back set. Even if he does miraculously play, he'll probably be limited in a game that has serious blowout potential.
Justise Winslow, POR at UTA ($16)
Strangely, Winslow has been the biggest beneficiary of Damian Lillard's (calf) injury, but it's made the southpaw a fantasy-relevant option. The versatile forward has started the last five games, averaging 28 Yahoo points per game across 36 minutes a night. That 36-minute role is the most impactful variable because most players in this price range are barely getting 20 minutes off of the bench. We believe that could be his floor here because Josh Hart (ankle) is also expected to miss this game. Utah is an unbelievable matchup, too, sitting 21st in points allowed and 23rd in defensive efficiency.
Kyle Anderson, MIN vs. OKC ($13)
Here we are with another injury fill-in. Sadly, the most impactful variable in DFS is the injuries, but it's imperative to react quickly to those and use the direct fill-ins. These sites can't respond quickly enough to adjust these prices, with Anderson seeing the most significant boost with Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) going down. KA got the start for him in Minnesota's most recent game, collecting 29 Y! points across 39 minutes of action. He did that damage despite shooting 3-of-11 from the field, but it's no surprise with how he stuffs the stat sheet. We also don't mind that Oklahoma City allows the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing PFs.
Forward to Avoid
Paolo Banchero, ORL at TOR ($32)
Banchero will win Rookie of the Year, but we expect his usage to drop as the season progresses. This team was obliterated by injuries early on, but they just got back Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony and Terrence Ross back. Those three high-usage players will undoubtedly lead to some negative regression for the rookie. My biggest concern is the matchup, with Toronto sitting seventh in points allowed. The Raptors are also a massive favorite, and many of these Orlando players may sit in the fourth quarter if this game gets as lopsided as I anticipate.
Jusuf Nurkic, POR at UTA ($26)
Nurk is one of my favorite players in the NBA, and it's hard to understand why he's still below $30. He's become one of the focal points in this offense with Lillard out, posting a 26 percent usage rate with the superstar off the floor. It's also led to one of the best stretches of Nurk's career, averaging 35 Yahoo points per game across his last eight outings. He's seeing a ton of touches in the post in this expanded role and should feast against a Jazz team that's surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers. Nurkic is averaging over 38 fantasy points per game in their last three matchups!
Rudy Gobert, MIN vs. OKC ($24)
I refuse to believe Rudy is a $24 player. This guy is usually closer to $40, but the worst stretch of his career has plummeted his price tag. Now that Towns is out, this team needs him to step up. We saw Gobert gobbling up boards before this one-week slump, averaging 36 Y! points per game through his first 17 games in Minnesota. That would be a massive total from a $24 player, and it seems more likely here, with Oklahoma City sitting 28th in defensive efficiency ratings. He's faced this terrible Thunder frontcourt nine times over the last three years, scoring at least 35 fantasy points in all of those!
Center to Avoid
Thaddeus Young, TOR vs. ORL ($13)
Young was incredible when he filled in for Pascal Siakam, but with the All-Star back in action, Young is impossible to trust. That forced Thaddeus back to a bench role, playing just 19 combined minutes over the last two games. You can't use anybody who might not even crack double-digits in minutes, especially since he played just four minutes in Toronto's most recent outing. Let Young fall back to the minimum and ride him when players are injured or resting.