NBA DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Saturday, January 21

NBA DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Saturday, January 21

This is one of my favorite cards of the year. It usually takes me 15-20 minutes to pick the players I want to write up, but I found all of these guys in less than five minutes. They all just popped off the page, and all of these guys are way too low on the salary chart in such incredible circumstances. Most of these players will be below $30, so let's get started with a couple of guards!

Guards

Terry Rozier, CHA at ATL ($27)

The Hornets have had a nightmarish season in terms of injuries, but Rozier should step up with LaMelo Ball (ankle), Kelly Oubre Jr (wrist) and Miles Bridges (personal) all sidelined. Rozier has a robust 32.7 percent usage rate with those guys off the floor. That means he should be in line for 35-40 minutes, 20 shots and nearly all ball-handling duties. That's great since he's already been playing well alongside Ball, averaging 35 Yahoo points per game this season. That should be his floor in this matchup, with Atlanta ranked 21st in points allowed while allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing guards.

D'Angelo Russell, MIN vs. HOU ($23)

Strangely, Russell remains at just $23. This guy has stepped up since Karl-Anthony Towns went down, scoring at least 28 Y! points in 22 of his last 27 games. Russell also registered a 33-point average in that span, seeing more shot attempts and usage with KAT sidelined. That makes him a worthy play against anyone, but Houston is the best matchup in the NBA, ranking 28th in total defense while surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing PGs. In their five matchups since the start of last year, D-Lo has a 38-point average against them!

Guard to Avoid

Tyrese Maxey, PHI at SAC ($25)

Maxey is an incredible player who's probably got too much talent to be $25, but his role is terrible right now. The former Kentucky guard has been relegated to bench duties, failing to crack 30 Yahoo points in seven straight games. That's sad because he's averaging over 31 Yahoo points per game for the year, but it's clear Philly wants to have him as a spark off the bench, with Joel Embiid and James Harden dominating all the touches in the starting unit. Maxey will be a great option if he starts or if there's an injury, but he's tough to trust until then.

Forwards

Evan Mobley, CLE vs. MIL ($25)

It was shocking to see Mobley in this price range. The Rookie of the Year runner-up has been just as good as last year, averaging 33 Yahoo points per game. That alone is a tantalizing total from a $25 player, but it looks even better since Mobley has at least 27 Y! points in seven straight outings, generating a 36-point average in that span. Of course, that's no surprise since he's being asked to do more with Donovan Mitchell out, and more players could be sitting here in the second half of a back-to-back set. Mobley's done well versus Milwaukee's tough defense throughout his career too, averaging over 28 fantasy points per gam.

Damion Lee, PHX vs. IND ($13)

It's sad what's happened to the Suns this season, but it's given us some excellent value in DFS. Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Landry Shamet, Cameron Payne and Cameron Johnson are all on the injury report right now, leaving Lee with the most prominent role of his career. Damion played a season-high 38 minutes in his most recent outing, averaging 27 Yahoo points per game across his last five outings. That's an absurd total from a $13 player, and it should continue since Indiana ranks 22nd in points allowed and 25th in defensive efficiency.

Forward to Avoid

Bol Bol, ORL at WAS ($18)

You might see Bol's impressive 26-point average and pivot to him below $20, but this guy's role has not been the same since his return from injury. Bol hasn't cracked 20 minutes in any of his three games since returning, and he logged just eight minutes before playing the whole fourth quarter in a blowout on Friday. That's an ominous sign with this roster at full health, and it wouldn't be shocking to see this guy out of the rotation altogether in the coming weeks.

Centers

Joel Embiid, PHI at SAC ($53)

I've offered up every player below $30, so let's get one of the studs into our lineup! Embiid is just that, averaging over 56 Yahoo points per game this year. His recent form is even more ridiculous, scoring at least 43 Y! points in 26 straight outings while posting a 60-point average in that span. That fantastic form will likely continue in this stupendous matchup, with Sacramento sitting 24th in both points allowed and defensive efficiency. Joel has scored at least 52 fantasy points in eight of their last nine matchups, averaging over 55 Y! points per game.

Naz Reid, MIN vs. HOU ($13)

If Rudy Gobert is out again, Reid needs to be in everyone's lineup. That leaves Naz as the only center left in Minnesota with KAT out as well, averaging 21 Y! points per game across 18 minutes a night in a reserve role this year. That's premier production in a limited role, and it looks even better since Reid is averaging nearly 35 Yahoo points per game in his six starts. He's actually flashed a 50-point upside in two of those, and that could be in play with the Rockets ranked 25th in points allowed and 28th in defensive efficiency.

Center to Avoid

Clint Capela/Onyeka Okongwu, ATL vs. CHA ($22/$20)

These guys are fantastic individual players, but they're impossible to use when both guys are healthy. They essentially split the 48 center minutes in half, leaving both players as tough options from a DFS perspective. Okongwu is averaging 15 Yahoo points per game across 26 minutes a night in the two games since Capela's return, while Clint is averaging 26 Y! points per game across 22 minutes a night. I actually anticipate those roles swapping at some point, but neither guy is worth it if they're not going to play 30 minutes.