NBA DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Saturday, January 28
It's rare to see such a large slate on a Saturday, but here we are! We have 11 games in total, with nine making up the main card starting at 7ET. That leaves us with plenty of players to pick from, but there's one team we want to exploit. It'll be easy to understand who that is, so let's get started with the biggest beneficiary in that sensational spot!
Guards
Spencer Dinwiddie, DAL at UTA ($27)
Luka Doncic has been dominating touches in Dallas since he was drafted, but this is Dinwiddie's show now. In the last game where Doncic went down, Dinwiddie collected 36 points, six rebounds and nine assists. A gem like that is less surprising when you look at some of his previous games without Luka, scoring at least 31 Yahoo points in all four of the games Luka has sat en route to a 39-point average in those outings. He had an even higher average last year when Doncic was out, and he shouldn't have any issues against a Utah team that ranks 23rd in points allowed and 26th in defensive efficiency.
D'Angelo Russell, MIN at SAC ($24)
It's hard to understand why Russell remains below $25. This guy has been a stud since Karl-Anthony Towns went down, averaging 34 Yahoo points per game across his last 31 outings. His recent form is even more ridiculous, scoring at least 36 fantasy points in five straight fixtures. This former All-Star's usage has skyrocketed since KAT went down, and we're not scared of him facing a 25th-ranked Sacramento defense. In their last matchup, D-Lo dropped 52 Yahoo points!
Guard to Avoid
Dennis Schroder, LAL at BOS ($21)
Schroder has actually had a few sensational games recently, but it will be a tough endeavor for him from here on out. Now that Anthony Davis is back and fully healthy, Dennis the Menace is the fourth option in this offense. That's scary when you look at his early season form, averaging just 20 Yahoo points per game through his first 31 outings. That would be a terrible total from a $21 player, and it seems more likely against a Top-5 Boston defense. In their one matchup earlier this season, Schroder scored just 4.7 Y! points in one of the worst games of his career.
Forwards
Tim Hardaway Jr, DAL at UTA ($17)
We like Hardaway for all the same reasons as Dinwiddie. Dallas is missing 30 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists and 40 percent of the team's usage with Luka out, and that'll likely make Hardaway one of the focal points of the offense. With Luka and Christian Wood off the floor this year, Hardaway has a 27 percent usage rate. That's on full display when you see that THJ has at least 27 Y! points in three of the four games Luka has missed while averaging nearly 35 fantasy points per game when Doncic was out last year. That's absurd from a sub-$20 player, and we're not worried about him facing this 26th-ranked defense.
Keegan Murray, SAC at MIN ($15)
It was a slow start for this rookie, but Murray has been playing much better recently. The versatile forward has scored at least 23 Yahoo points in 11 of his last 12 games, generating a 27-point average in that span. He's also got a 33-point average across his last four outings, and it's hard to believe Murray remains at just $15 with this sort of surge. Facing the Timberwolves is far from terrifying, with Minnesota ranked fourth in pace while surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing PFs.
Forward to Avoid
Naji Marshall, NOP vs. WAS ($22)
Marshall has been incredible filling in this season, but we need to see a price drop now that Brandon Ingram is back in the lineup. In the first game with BI back, Marshall had just 17 Yahoo points across 27 minutes. That's the guy we saw earlier in the season when this roster was at full health, with Marshall maintaining a 14-point average through the first 19 games. With Naji and Ingram playing the same position, there's no chance that Marshall will be a 30-minute guy, and that means he should be nowhere near $22, either.
Centers
Deandre Ayton, PHX at SAS ($28)
Ayton has always frustrated me with his lack of energy, but he's really turned it on over the last two weeks. The big man has scored at least 37 Yahoo points in five of his last seven games, tallying 46 or more in back-to-back games. That's the dominance we've been waiting to see, and it's likely to continue with Devin Booker out for the foreseeable future. Squaring off with San Antonio is the best possible matchup too, ranked dead-last in both points allowed and defensive efficiency. In their one matchup earlier this season. Deandre dropped 40 Y! points.
Wendell Carter Jr, ORL vs. CHI ($20)
Carter doesn't go off much, but he's way too consistent to sport a salary this low. The Orlando center has scored at least 27 Yahoo points in 11 of his last 13 games, generating a 32-point average in his 27 starts this year. A strange bench stretch lowered his average, but this big man is a stud in his usual 30-minute starting role. A revenge game against Chicago should keep him surging, with WCJ scoring at least 33 fantasy points in all five of their meetings since the start of last year en route to a 39-point average.
Center to Avoid
Onyeka Okongwu, ATL vs. LAC ($18)
All of the avoid guys have something in common. They have inflated price tags because they were balling out when their respective rosters were beat-up. All of them should regress with starters returning to the lineup, with Okonwgu relegated to bench duties for Clint Capela. That's led to OO scoring 20 or fewer fantasy points in four of his last five games, playing just 20 minutes in his most recent outing. That's no surprise since he averaged 19 Y! points per game through the first 15 games of the year, and he simply shouldn't be this close to $20 in a 20-minute bench role.
