NBA DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Sunday, November 20
After a slow slate Saturday, we're back to normal here with eight games and seven making up the main card beginning at 6 p.m. EST. We have many superstars in the DFS pool, and it's going to be challenging to pick the right ones. We also want to offer up some value plays to pair with those studs, but we'll kick things off with two top guards.
Guards
Stephen Curry, GSW at HOU ($46)
We assumed Curry would take it easy after his Finals run last year, but he's on a mission. The former MVP has scored at least 40 Yahoo points in every game this season while generating a 52-point average. Those are career-best numbers from the best shooter of all time, and it's clear Curry knows he needs to carry the load for this underwhelming offense. His biggest asset here is a matchup with Houston who are ranked 24th in points allowed and 28th in defensive efficiency. They're also surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing PGs, with Chef Curry cooking up 66 Y! points in their most recent matchup.
De'Aaron Fox, SAC vs. DET ($37)
Fox has taken his game to another level this season, and it has Sacramento looking like a legitimate team. The speedster has produced at least 36 Yahoo points in all 12 games he's finished while averaging 46 per outing across 34 minutes a night. Fox's one dud was a first-quarter injury, and it makes him impossible to fade against Detroit's disastrous defense. The Pistons rank 27th in points allowed and 29th in defensive efficiency. Fox has faced them four times over the last two years and has posted at least 45 fantasy points in each one.
Tyus Jones, MEM at BKN ($11)
It's unfortunate Ja Morant went down with an ankle injury on Friday, but it should force Jones into another start at point guard. He's been a stud in that role of late by averaging 38 Yahoo points in two starts this season. Tyus also averaged 29 Y! points per game in 23 starts last year, and it's clear Memphis is comfortable putting the offense in his hands. He should succeed against Brooklyn's subpar defense that gives up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing PGs.
Guard to Avoid
Jordan Poole, GSW at HOU ($21)
Poole has been inconsistent all season, but it's easy to understand why. He's been stuck on the bench behind Curry and Klay Thompson while seeing his usage and production drop in this diminished role. You might be encouraged by Poole's 52-point gem last week, but that was when all the starters were rested. He's actually averaging 43 Y! points in three starts this year with 22 in 13 outings off the bench. Poole's also cracked 27 fantasy points in only two of those, making it hard to trust him in this salary range.
Forwards
Max Strus, MIA at CLE ($20)
This Miami lineup has been devastated by injuries. They ran a seven-man rotation on Friday, and it's no surprise with Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo and Gabe Vincent all hurting. That forced Strus to log 45 minutes and take 24 shots, which is something you usually see from a $40 player. He couldn't buy a shot then, but boasts a 27-point average across 35 minutes a night over his last 12. That role is unheard of from a player in this salary range, and Miami needs Strus to carry the scoring load with so many big-name players sidelined.
Royce O'Neale, BKN vs. MEM ($17)
O'Neale has been a solid value solely based on his workload, but he's finally getting some offensive responsibility. The defensive stud posted the first triple-double of his career on Thursday en route to 40 Yahoo points. That gives O'Neale a 28-point average across 36 minutes over his last 10. You can't ask for any more from a sub-$20 player, and Brooklyn needs him to go 35-40 minutes to slow down a potent Memphis offense. The Grizzlies represent a great matchup as they're also ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency ratings.
Forward to Avoid
Caris LeVert, CLE vs. MIA ($18)
We're fading LeVert for all the same reasons as Poole. He's also been much better when the stud guards have been out, but he's been difficult to use when this roster is at full health. In fact, Caris has registered 14 or fewer fantasy points in three of his last four while averaging 9.3 Y! in his previous two outings. You need triple that to gain value from an $18 player, and it's clear there's not enough usage to go around with Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland dominating the touches. Miami is a terrible matchup too sitting 25th in pace and eighth in points allowed.
Centers
Kristaps Porzingis, WAS vs. CHA ($36)
It was hard to understand why Dallas traded Porzingis, and Mavs' fans surely have some regrets after his fantastic start to the year. KP is averaging over 40 Yahoo points per game while dropping 53 or more four times. That ceiling is ridiculous, and it looks even better since he's managed at least 44 in four straight appearances. That's one of the best stretches of Porzingis's career, but it should continue since he's taking nearly 20 shots a night. Facing the Hornets is great as they're ranked 23rd in defensive ratings while surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers. And in their two head-to-heads since the start of last year, KP has posted a 45-point average.
Jakob Poeltl, SAS at LAL ($28)
Not enough people realize just how good Poeltl is. The Austrian has scored at least 28 Yahoo points in 11 of 16 games this year, with four out of five being massive blowouts. We don't expect that to be the case against a four-win Lakers team, with Poeltl providing a 40-point average in the other 11 outings. That's an absurd total from an affordable player, and we obviously don't mind he faces an LA side sitting sixth in pace and 21st in points allowed. They're also surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers, with Poeltl posting a 34-point average in their three matchups last year. If he ends up sitting in this B2B, don't forget about Keita Bates-Diop and Charles Bassey in expanded roles.
Center to Avoid
Nicolas Claxton, BKN vs. MEM ($20)
I love Claxton as a player, but the role is not there right now. He's been ceding center minutes to Ben Simmons and Kevin Durant while logging just 22 minutes a night over the last five. He's scored fewer than 23 fantasy points in four of those, and it's tough to produce value with such a limited role. The matchup with Memphis isn't terrible, but facing Steven Adams and Jaren Jackson Jr. represents the toughest part of their defense.
