NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks for Tuesday, April 27th | Luka Doncic

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Eric MacPherson
·6 min read
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks for Tuesday, April 27th | Luka Doncic
EMac gives his favorite NBA DFS picks for Yahoo, DraftKings + FanDuel daily fantasy basketball lineups, including Luka Doncic | 4/27/21
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NBA DFS action on Tuesday, April 27, locks at 7 p.m. ET with a six-game main slate on Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel. Before locking in lineups, make sure to check out Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball picks, rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some NBA DFS picks and daily fantasy basketball, including Luka Doncic, Jaylen Brown, Khem Birch and more.

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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks, Tuesday, April 27th

Yahoo Play of the Day — Khem Birch: Toronto Raptors vs. Brooklyn Nets

  • Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 24.78 | DraftKings: 24.46

  • Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 37.4% | FanDuel 20.0% | DraftKings 18.8%

  • DFS Salary: Yahoo $11 | FanDuel $4,900 | DraftKings $4,700

Chris Boucher will be out through the weekend with a knee injury. This has secured 28 to 30 minutes in the rotation for Khem Birch. In the last six games Birch has started for the Raptors, he is averaging 28.5 minutes while producing 9.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 2.7 combined blocks/steals. While this may not seem like a lot, he has topped 25 Yahoo fantasy points in four of these games. Tonight the Raptors have an excellent matchup against Brooklyn, and they are going to need Birch to battle with DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin as well as protect the rim from Kyrie Irving drives.

Jaylen Brown: Boston Celtics vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 44.38 | DraftKings: 46.25

  • Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 34.4% | FanDuel 45.8% | DraftKings 29.0%

  • DFS Salary: Yahoo $37 | FanDuel $8,100 | DraftKings $8,400

Robert Williams will be missing a seventh straight game with his knee injury. Tonight, he will be joined on the sidelines by Jayson Tatum, who is managing an ankle issue, and Kemba Walker, who is dealing with a sore mid-section. Even with these key players out, Boston is still favored by nearly a dozen points. Jaylen Brown is averaging 1.14 Yahoo fantasy points per minute this season. NBA WOWY shows that Brown’s rate increases by nearly 20% to 1.34 fantasy points per minute when both Tatum and Walker are off the court. If he draws the start, rookie Payton Pritchard would become a viable NBA DFS punt option on both Yahoo and DraftKings, where he is near the minimum salary.

Luka Doncic: Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors

  • Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 52.35 | DraftKings: 56.13

  • Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 11.2% | FanDuel 14.0% | DraftKings 17.8%

  • DFS Salary: Yahoo $54 | FanDuel $11,300 | DraftKings $10,900

This will be the third game in four nights for the Mavericks, who lost in Sacramento on Monday after besting the Lakers at home on Saturday. Kristaps Porzingis and Josh Richardson have both missed the last two games and are currently listed as doubtful. Maxi Kleber and Dorian Finney-Smith are also dinged up and will be game-time decisions. Finally, Doncic is listed as questionable as well, though he is expected to play.

Doncic disappointed his backers in each of the last two games, with fantasy outputs in the low-40s. Ideally that will keep his popularity in check, as he has 55- to 60-fantasy-point upside. Surprisingly, over their last 15 games, the Warriors have a top-five defensive efficiency rating. However, they also play at a top-five pace, and Doncic leads the league this season at 35.6% usage. There will be enough NBA DFS value picks that gamers can roster a couple of luxury options tonight. Doncic can also be paired with Stephen Curry and/or Draymond Green as part of a synergistic strategy that could pay off handsomely if this game stays close.

Good Value

Toronto Raptors vs. Brooklyn Nets

This is going to be a key spot to watch, as the Raptors played last night and have been resting some of their players on back-to-backs. Chris Boucher and Paul Watson are out with knee injuries, and Gary Trent Jr. will be missing a second straight game with a lower-leg issue. Toronto is very much in the mix for the play-in game and when they are fully healthy they are far better than teams like Washington, Chicago and Charlotte. One could also make this same argument when comparing them to Atlanta, New York and even Boston. The point is that the Raptors are not tanking, and they have lost significant players to both injuries and a COVID outbreak, which has led to some uneven and heavy workloads.

After this game, Toronto is heading out on a four-in-six road trip against the Western Conference. Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Kyle Lowry and O.G. Anunoby are all solid NBA DFS picks in tournaments tonight, but if any of this quartet it out, the remaining players would all see a boost in their fantasy opportunities and become core plays in a great matchup against Brooklyn. Malachi Flynn is in this category as well.

Risky Value

Kyrie Irving: Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors

  • Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 45.96 | DraftKings: 47.09

  • Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 8.0% | FanDuel 20.2% | DraftKings 22.4%

  • DFS Salary: Yahoo $50 | FanDuel $10,200 | DraftKings $9,500

The Awesemo Boom/Bust tool is not particularly fond of Kyrie Irving today. However, that has more to do with his lofty salary than his actual raw fantasy projection, which is in the mid-40s. The wild card here is that Kevin Durant is expected to play 28 to 30 minutes tonight as he continues working his way back to full health.

There is a 12.4% probability of Irving being in the DraftKings optimal lineup. When comparing that with his projected popularity of 22.4%, that gives him a leverage score of -6.6. Though that is not awful, there is just a 14.9% likelihood of booming at 57.5 DraftKings points. Conversely, there is a 51.6% chance of him falling below his bust threshold of 47.5 DraftKings points. Let other gamers take this risk tonight.

Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies

  1. Jaden McDaniels: MIN at HOU – $10

  2. Edmond Sumner: IND vs. POR – $12

  3. Armoni Brooks: HOU vs. MIN – $10

Final Thoughts on the Tuesday, April 27th NBA DFS Slate

Four teams are on the second legs of back-to-backs and three teams are on the front end. This will likely lead to late-breaking news that needs to be monitored tonight. Keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a slam-dunk play on Yahoo may be a below-average NBA DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.

The post NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks for Tuesday, April 27th | Luka Doncic appeared first on Awesemo.com.