🏀 NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks for Tuesday, March 23rd | Damian Lillard
NBA DFS action on Tuesday, March 23, locks at 7:00 p.m. ET with a six-game main slate on Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel. SuperDraft is locking at 7:30 p.m. ET with a five-game slate. Before you lock in your lineups, make sure to check out Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball picks, rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some daily fantasy basketball picks, including Damian Lillard, Julius Randle the Nets and more.
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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks, Tuesday, March 23rd
Yahoo Play of the Day – Damian Lillard: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Brooklyn Nets
Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 47.04 | DraftKings: 50.63
Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 11.8% | FanDuel 34.9% | DraftKings 15.1%
DFS Salary: Yahoo $48 | FanDuel $9,400 | DraftKings $10,000
This is a phenomenal matchup for the Trail Blazers, and they have nearly a 120-point projected team total. Brooklyn is going to be short-handed without Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Landry Shamet. There is also a chance that James Harden will be out with a neck issue. Brooklyn has tightened up its defense somewhat, but it is still in the bottom third of the league for most metrics. Brooklyn has won 15 of its last 17 games, which is impressive.
Damian Lillard has led the Blazers to an 8-2 record over their last 10 games after dragging the team out of a four-game tailspin. Portland was waxed on Sunday by the visiting Mavericks, and none of the Trail Blazers starters saw minutes in the final frame. This has depressed Lillard’s salary across the various DFS sites.
Since C.J. McCollum has returned, coach Terry Stotts has been staggering the rest time for his star backcourt duo. Lillard has been getting 6 to 7 minutes wrapping up the first and third quarters without McCollum. Conversely, McCollum has been seeing 5 to 6 minutes to start the second quarter and 4 to 5 to start the final frame while Lillard gets a break. This helps maximize the fantasy production for both players, which is nice for DFS gamers.
Julius Randle: New York Knicks vs. Washington Wizards
Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 44 | DraftKings: 46.93
Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 10% | FanDuel 16.9% | DraftKings 10.2%
DFS Salary: Yahoo $46 | FanDuel $10,000 | DraftKings $9,900
Today there is an intriguing dichotomy of playing styles between the Knicks and the Wizards. This season the Wizards are playing at the fastest pace in the league, with 104.9 possessions per 48 minutes. Their 114 points allowed per 100 possessions has them as the fourth-worst team in defensive efficiency rating. On the flipside, the Tom Thibodeau-led Knicks are playing at the league’s slowest pace, at 96.45 possessions per 48 minutes. They also have been a stalwart defensive squad with a 108.3 defensive efficiency, which is among the league leaders. In the first meeting between these squads, it was a 109-91 Knicks victory in Washington. Bradley Beal did not play in that game.
Tonight’s environment is a dream scenario for Julius Randle. This season Randle is posting career highs across the board and is second in the NBA with 37 minutes per game, behind only James Harden. This is the most he has played in any season, and it is contributing to some phenomenal numbers. The improvement in his all-around game has been impressive as well, with his 23 points, 11 rebounds, 6 assists and 4.6 3-point attempts (41.4% from 3). The Knicks could see the return of Elfrid Payton (hamstring) and Derrick Rose (health and safety), though that should not be an adverse impact to Randle’s fantasy production.
Good Value
Brooklyn Nets at Portland Trail Blazers
We will need to plan ahead if we do not know the availability for Harden at lock. He is currently listed as questionable with a neck issue. If we get a mid-day update on his status to probable or doubtful, that will help guide our decision making. If he remains questionable with no updates, we will want to be sure to have contingency plans for a 2-v-2 swap with other players involved in the two late games to maximize our salary usage. If Harden plays, he is a phenomenal NBA DFS pick. Since joining the Nets Harden is averaging 1.43 Yahoo fantasy points per minute. Looking at NBA WOWY, we can see that this increases to 1.62 Yahoo fantasy points per minute when Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are off the court.
With Durant, Irving and Landry Shamet all out tonight, we are going to want to roll with quite a few of the Brooklyn understudies on our rosters. Without two of the three Nets superstars on the court, Joe Harris sees a 10 to 15% increase in his fantasy production. Harris has been phenomenal this year from beyond the arc, with a 48.7% success rate. Among players taking at least 5 attempts per game, this trails only Joe Ingles, who is making half of his 3-pointers.
Bruce Brown, Nicolas Claxton, Jeff Green and DeAndre Jordan are all solid NBA DFS picks in all formats across the daily fantasy sites. On this late slate we can look to Tyler Johnson as well. It is going to be hard to consider Blake Griffin, who may only be playing 15 to 20 minutes as he continues to work his way back into shape after a long injury layoff.
Philadelphia 76ers at Golden State Warriors
Unfortunately, we will not get to see the Curry brothers square off tonight, as Stephen Curry is out with a bruised tailbone and Seth Curry is out with an ankle sprain. The 76ers are also without Joel Embiid as he recovers from a hyperextended knee. Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are NBA DFS picks to target in this fantasy-friendly environment. For discounted options we can consider Furkan Korkmaz, Tony Bradley and Shake Milton. In tournaments we can also consider Dwight Howard and Danny Green, though Howard is not cheap and Green is wildly inconsistent.
James Wiseman, Kevon Looney and Eric Paschall are all slated to return from the health-and-safety protocol. This is going to pinch some of the minutes that had been disbursed across the other ancillary Warriors. Draymond Green is still fine at his increasing salary levels. In 21 games since the beginning of February, Green is averaging 7.1 points, 7.9 rebounds and 9.9 assists with 2.9 combined blocks and steals. This has him flirting with 40 fantasy points most nights. Kelly Oubre and Andrew Wiggins are always in play, as they tend to see an increase in shot attempts with Curry is off the court. Finally, Jordan Poole looks to be back on the parent club for good after spending most of February in the G-League Bubble.
Risky Value
Dennis Schroder: Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans
Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 32.44 | DraftKings: 35.78
Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 28.0% | FanDuel 16.9% | DraftKings 22.7%
DFS Salary: Yahoo $24 | FanDuel $7,000 | DraftKings $6,600
The Lakers are, of course, without LeBron James, who has joined Anthony Davis on the sideline, and both have undetermined return dates. DraftKings and FanDuel have increased the salary for Dennis Schroder, and he does not appear to be as good of a tournament option as his current projected roster popularity indicates.
Looking at the Awesemo Boom/Bust Tool, we can see that there is an 16% chance that Schroder is in the optimal DraftKings lineup. His popularity tonight is 6.5% higher than the probability of this outcome. While Schroder is not a bad play by any stretch of the imagination in a good matchup with the Pelicans, the salary increase has eliminated most of his upside potential from a point-per-dollar aspect.
There is an 8.3% chance of Schroder exceeding his boom score of 43.0 DraftKings points. On the flipside, there is a 56.3% likelihood that he fails to clear his bust threshold of 33.0 DraftKings points. This makes sense when we consider that in the 22 games where he has played at least 30 minutes, he has topped 33 DraftKings points just eight times. The upside potential is somewhat muted when we also realize that in 39 games this season he has exceeded 40 fantasy points only twice.
Yes, the Lakers’ two stars are out, but this also will impede the overall offensive efficiency for the Lakers, even as it makes more opportunities available for the remaining ambulatory players.
Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies
Bruce Brown: BKN at POR – $10
Alex Caruso: LAL at NOP – $10
Nicolas Claxton: BKN at POR – $11
SuperDraft Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks
Julius Randle: NYK vs. WAS – 1.20x multiplier
Brandon Ingram: NOP vs. LAL – 1.35x multiplier
Dennis Schroder: LAL at NOP – 1.45x multiplier
Final Thoughts on Tuesday, March 23 NBA DFS Slate
Tonight we have a manageable six-game slate, though there is a three-hour window for tip-offs. Fortunately, nobody is on the second leg of a back-to-back, which should limit the crazy last-minute news somewhat. Keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a slam-dunk play on Yahoo may be a below-average NBA DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
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