NBA DFS Building Blocks for DraftKings & FanDuel | Monday, January 25th

Eric MacPherson
·6 min read
EMac gives his favorite NBA DFS picks for DraftKings + FanDuel daily fantasy basketball lineups including Bam Adebayo for Monday 1/25
EMac gives his favorite NBA DFS picks for DraftKings + FanDuel daily fantasy basketball lineups including Bam Adebayo for Monday 1/25

NBA DFS action on Monday, Jan. 25, locks at 7:00 p.m. EST with a robust 10-game main slate. Before you lock in your lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft, make sure to check out Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some NBA DFS picks, including Aaron Gordon, Bradley Beal, Clint Capela and more.

Don’t forget to head over to the Awesemo NBA DFS HOME PAGE for more great written content, including the FREE Deep Dive — the most in-depth article in the industry.

Awesemo’s Key NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks | Jan. 25

Nikola Jokic: DraftKings $10,800, FanDuel $11,200, Yahoo $54

Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 57.18 | Yahoo and FanDuel: 54.09
Awesemo’s Preliminary Ownership Projections: DraftKings 10.2% | FanDuel 13.3% | Yahoo 12.2%

Tonight there are 20 teams in action, which should provide for a seemingly endless number of value options. Now that Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee are in Detroit, Nikola Jokic is averaging a career-high 35.7 minutes per game. This season Jokic is second with 9.6 assists per game, sixth with 12.0 rebounds and 12th with 25.8 points. This is culminating in 57.5 Yahoo/FanDuel and 60.0 DraftKings points per game. And tonight we are putting his baseline projection — which is the highest on the slate — under his season average. There is not much else to add to this recommendation.

Damian Lillard: DraftKings $10,300, FanDuel $9,700, Yahoo $45

Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 57.18 | Yahoo and FanDuel: 53.22
Awesemo’s Preliminary Ownership Projections: DraftKings 19.1% | FanDuel 38.5% | Yahoo 41.0%

Borrowing directly from yesterday’s analysis: On Yahoo Damian Lillard should be a $50 player when we remember that C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic are both out for the foreseeable future. Utilizing NBA WOWY, we can see that Lillard gets a 10% increase in his fantasy points per minute over his baseline when both McCollum and Nurkic are off the court. Lillard is third in the league with 28.9 points per game, and he is 11th with 6.8 assists. Without his compadres, his usage rate climbs to the mid-30s, which would land him in the top three.

Last night he rolled up 39 points, five rebounds, eight assists and a steal in 35 minutes. He has scored 35-plus points in four of his last five games. Tonight’s opponent, the Thunder, are also on a back-to-back, and they are in the bottom-third of the league in points allowed per 100 possessions at 108.9.

Bam Adebayo: DraftKings $8,500, FanDuel $9,600, Yahoo $38

Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 48.58 | Yahoo and FanDuel: 47.39
Awesemo’s Preliminary Ownership Projections: DraftKings 23.8% | FanDuel 16.1% | Yahoo 29.8%

Once again the Heat will be without Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Maurice Harkless, Avery Bradley, Myers Leonard and Chris Silva. In this same matchup on Saturday, Bam Adebayo dropped a career-high 41 points. He was 14-for-20 from the field and 12-for-14 from the line. He also had a heat-check 3-pointer for his first of the year. While I do not expect him to drop 41 points again, I think he will have more than five rebounds, and it will be a disappointment if he does not reach 50 fantasy points.

Good Value

Goran Dragic: DraftKings $6,200, FanDuel $5,800, Yahoo $22

Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 35.46 | Yahoo and FanDuel: 33.36
Awesemo’s Preliminary Ownership Projections: DraftKings 25.7% | FanDuel 29.0% | Yahoo 22.4%

The pricing is quite favorable for Goran Dragic on Yahoo and FanDuel, and it is appropriate on DraftKings. Miami will once again be short-handed, which should secure 30-32 minutes for Dragic. He is dealing with a sore right foot, and keep in mind that it was his left foot that he suffered the torn plantar fascia in Game 1 of the NBA Finals last season. Dragic should have a floor around 25 fantasy points with a reasonable fantasy point outcome in the low-to-mid 30s. The one thing missing is fantasy upside, as the 34-year-old veteran has topped 40 fantasy points only once this season.

Delon Wright: DraftKings $5,500, FanDuel $5,600, Yahoo $15

Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 31.54 | Yahoo and FanDuel: 32.01
Awesemo’s Preliminary Ownership Projections: DraftKings 22.7% | FanDuel 14.3% | Yahoo 43.2%

On Yahoo Delon Wright is a steal, and on DraftKings his PG/SG designation grants him access to four of the eight roster slots. Derrick Rose (knee) will not be playing tonight, which opens up additional minutes for Wright. On the season he is averaging around 0.85 fantasy points per minute, and he should see between 32 and 34 minutes against Philadelphia. On Saturday, in this same matchup, he had a solid 27 fantasy points. That is a reasonable expectation again, with very attainable upside in the 35-fantasy-point range.

Risky Value

Jeff Teague: DraftKings $3,700, FanDuel $3,800, Yahoo $10

Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 18.49 | Yahoo and FanDuel: 18.20
Awesemo’s Preliminary Ownership Projections: DraftKings 19.9% | FanDuel 4.5% | Yahoo 2.0%

Kemba Walker is out for rest, and rookie Payton Pritchard (knee) is out with a sprained MCL. That means Jeff Teague will likely draw the start tonight. Teague is averaging 0.82 fantasy points per minute, but that is buoyed by a monster game in the season opener when he dropped 37.6 Yahoo/FanDuel points in 25 minutes. In his last four games, he has averaged 15.7 minutes and 6.9 fantasy points.

Using the Awesemo Boom vs. Bust tool that allows daily fantasy basketball players to see what a player’s likelihood is of appearing in the optimal NBA DFS lineup compared against their ownership, Teague has a 7.1% chance of ending up in the optimal lineup but is getting 19.9% ownership on DraftKings. This gives him a -12.8 leverage score. That score shows that he is projecting to be over-owned on DraftKings. However, he also has a 50.1% chance of busting and coming in with less than 5x his DraftKings salary in fantasy points. He has a 5.5% chance of a boom performance of 5x + 10, or 28.5 DraftKings points. For perspective, he has 28.5-plus fantasy points in just once this season, and he reached that threshold in 16 of 59 games last year with the Timberwolves, where he was getting regular playing time.

Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies

  1. Patrick Williams: CHI at BOS – $10

  2. Delon Wright: DET at PHI – $15

  3. Derrick Jones: POR vs. OKC- $10

SuperDraft Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks

  1. Enes Kanter: POR vs. OKC – 1.85x multiplier

  2. D’Angelo Russell: MIN at GSW – 1.45x multiplier

  3. Stephen Curry: GSW vs. MIN – 1.20x multiplier

Final Thoughts on the Monday, Jan. 25 NBA DFS Slate

Value options will abound tonight with 20 teams in action. Keep in mind that player pricing is not consistent across the DFS sites, and some players who are a great play on one site may be a bad play on another.

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