It’s a modest six-game evening in the NBA this Monday, but there’s still plenty of DFS value to be mined. From guys you almost must target to potential punt plays, we're here to break down the biggest values. Keep in mind I’m looking primarily for players with salaries around $6,000 or cheaper. Let's start with a quick look at Vegas' expectations for today’s slate.
Wolves at Pistons
Mavs at Celtics
Grizzlies at Spurs
Rockets at Pelicans
Raptors at Clippers
Derrick Rose (FD $5,800 – DK $5,800)
The Pistons are desperate for guard help with Reggie Jackson sidelined by a back injury, and getting Rose back on the same day as Blake Griffin (who said he’s playing tonight) could work wonders for their offense. Rose has been great when healthy this year with consistent 6x value, so it makes sense to target him against an up-tempo Wolves team – there’s even a minor ‘revenge game’ narrative. It’s also a night without many cheap, compelling PG plays.
Norman Powell (FD $4,300 – DK $4,200)
His price has gone up a bit, but not enough to prevent him from massive ownership in DFS on Monday. He’s starting with Kyle Lowry (finger) on the sidelines, and is coming off a game with 14 points, 5 rebounds, two assists and two blocks in 26 minutes. The game before that, he put up 18 points with four rebounds and one steal. I’m not too excited about his ceiling in DFS but the price is too good to ignore. If you need to save money, Powell could be your guy.
Alec Burks (FD $5,600 – DK $5,200)
This is another player whose price has risen, but not enough to scare me off him. Yes, it’s almost certainly the slowest-paced game of the night and Burks will be up against a Jazz defense that ranks second in Defensive Efficiency. Not ideal. However, the Warriors are simply desperate for production beyond D’Angelo Russell and Eric Paschall, the latter of whom is probable with a bruised hip. Burks’ past three games in FanDuel have been 46.1, 33.3 and 40.0.
Derrick Favors (FD $5,300 – DK $4,700)
Favors is coming off a solid game with 10 points, 10 rebounds, three assists and two steals. However, he’s been battling injuries since the preseason and isn’t priced as a pure punt, so I don’t expect high ownership tonight. The keys for me are that he looked good while playing 29 minutes vs. Charlotte, and I also want exposure to the Rockets/Pelicans game. With a ludicrous over/under of 244.5, it should be a fast-paced bonanza of counting stats. Favors isn’t ideally suited to a running game, but the Pelicans don’t have many alternatives.
Chris Boucher (FD $4,100 – DK $3,400)
Boucher has gone down in FanDuel somehow, and his price for DraftKings remains incredibly low. Serge Ibaka is out indefinitely with a serious ankle sprain, and Boucher was up for the challenge on Sunday with 15 points, three blocks, two steals, two rebounds and one assist in 24 minutes off the bench. The Raptors can’t overload Marc Gasol, particularly in the second of back-to-back games, so Boucher is in a great position. I don’t see any low-end centers with nearly his upside tonight.