NBA Betting Cheat Sheet for March 21

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Corey Parson
·4 min read
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The big news in the NBA yesterday was the high ankle sprain suffered by LeBron James. The League’s MVP market has responded. On PointsBet, Nikola Jokic is now a -110 favorite for the league's MVP award. My money though, will be on James Harden at +1000.

The New Orleans Pelicans play the Denver Nuggets this afternoon in Denver. Both teams are in a bad ATS spot. New Orleans struggles on the road ATS (8-11), while the Nuggets struggle at home ATS (8-12). The total in this game opened up at 234.5; it has been bet down to 230.5. The Nuggets are on a 3-game winning streak. The over has cashed in all three wins. The total is high for a Nuggets game, but I think it has been bet down enough to hit the over. Edge: Over 230.5

The Boston Celtics are currently the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference. They have lost four out of their last five games — something is not right in Boston. The Orlando Magic have one win in their last 10 games. Orlando is 9-10 ATS on the road this season; I would say Orlando is undervalued on the road in a normal spot. The problem is you can't overvalue the Celtics right now. Boston is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games. There is no way I can lay points with them. Orlando, on the other hand, is 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Edge: Orlando +8.5

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The Brooklyn Nets have the weird habit of playing to the level of their competition. For example, on Friday night, they lost to the Orlando Magic. Today the Nets play the Washington Wizards, who have beaten them twice this season. In the Wizards' last game, they beat the Utah Jazz, and that win snapped a 5-game Washington losing streak. The total in this game is 248.5. Sounds high, right? in the previous two games between these teams, they have gone over 241 and 244, so they can definitely get over this number today. The better wager is on Brooklyn to lay the 8.5. Edge: Nets -8.5

The Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons play tonight in a game between Central Division rivals. The last time these two teams met, the Bulls scored a three-point home victory. The Detroit Pistons are 10-6 ATS as home underdogs this season. Edge: Pistons +3

Edge Finder Tip: In games where the Detroit Pistons are home underdogs, the under has cashed 62% of the time.

The Toronto Raptors, who are on a 7-game losing streak, face the Cleveland Cavaliers today. COVID-19 issues have hit the Raptors hard. They should have their full team today, but money doesn't grow on trees, so I will not be laying 7.5 points on a team that has lost seven in a row. The Raptors and Cavaliers have played in 28 games this season with a closing total between 215 and 200; the over has cashed in 60% of those games. Edge: Over 217.5

The New York Knicks play the Philadelphia 76ers in Madison Square Garden tonight. This game will have playoff-like intensity. Ben Simmons and Seth Curry are both questionable for the 76ers. This game is essentially a pick'em. Edge: Under 213.5

The Los Angeles Lakers, minus LeBron James, play the Phoenix Suns in Phoenix tonight. The Suns have a realistic chance to be the top seed in the West when the playoffs start. Look for the Suns to make a statement today. Edge: Suns -10

The Dallas Mavericks and Portland Trail Blazers play tonight to conclude a two-game set. Portland won on Friday night. The Mavericks are a 2-point favorite tonight, just as they were on Friday. That means the Trail Blazers will be a trendy underdog tonight. I fade trendy underdogs. Edge: Mavericks -2

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