Nationals vs. Mets Prop Bet: Rich Hill strikeouts over/under

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Prince's Props: Rich Hill strikeouts vs. Nationals originally appeared on NBC Sports Washington

* NBC Sports Washington editor Prince J. Grimes picks his favorite prop bet from today's action.

Prince's Prop: Rich Hill Under 4.5 strikeouts (-130)

The Mets have used consecutive series against the NL East-bottom dwelling Nationals and Marlins to push within one game of .500 and five games of the division-leading Braves entering Friday.

Riding a five-game winning streak, New York (66-67) has a chance to continue climbing the standings with another weekend series against the Nats, only this time the teams will play five straight games thanks to a double-header Saturday which includes a make-up from April.

Friday features a pitching matchup between lefties Sean Nolin for the Nats and the Mets' Rich Hill, whose last start came against Washington last week. That game, an eight-strikeout performance, makes Hill's strikeout line for Friday so hard to project. PointsBet Sportsbook has it at 4.5 strikeouts, with tempting -110 odds on the over. But prior to those eight strikeouts, which were his highest total since May, Hill hadn’t eclipsed four strikeouts in any of his previous eight games. So there’s also good value on the under at -130 odds.

Despite what Hill was able to do in his last start, I favor the under in this matchup. Looking at that last game, those eight strikeouts came against seven different batters, but the one man who struck out multiple times, Victor Robles, is no longer on the Nats’ major league roster. Additionally, the 41-year-old Hill had seen a virtually similar version of this young Nationals lineup two weeks prior in a long relief appearance where they were able to work counts and make him throw 74 pitches in just three innings of work. He obviously made some adjustments the following game, but I expect Washington to be ready to counter this time around. Outside of one or two new faces in the lineup, most of the Nats have seen enough of the slow-throwing Hill recently.

Outside of that eight-K game, starting pitchers have maxed out at five strikeouts against the Nats over the last nearly three weeks. And the lineup has heated up a little their last two games, chasing the Phillies’ Aaron Nola and Matt Moore before either could eclipse four innings pitched. The NBC Sports Edge projection model gives Hill a 5.6 strikeouts projection in six innings pitched. He’s gone over 64% of the time this season.

Odds provided by our partner, PointsBet