National Retail Properties, Inc.'s (NYSE:NNN) On An Uptrend But Financial Prospects Look Pretty Weak: Is The Stock Overpriced?

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National Retail Properties' (NYSE:NNN) stock is up by a considerable 23% over the past three months. However, we decided to pay close attention to its weak financials as we are doubtful that the current momentum will keep up, given the scenario. In this article, we decided to focus on National Retail Properties' ROE.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

View our latest analysis for National Retail Properties

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for National Retail Properties is:

8.0% = US$322m ÷ US$4.0b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2022).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.08 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

National Retail Properties' Earnings Growth And 8.0% ROE

When you first look at it, National Retail Properties' ROE doesn't look that attractive. However, given that the company's ROE is similar to the average industry ROE of 6.9%, we may spare it some thought. We can see that National Retail Properties has grown at a five year net income growth average rate of 2.7%, which is a bit on the lower side. Remember, the company's ROE is not particularly great to begin with. Hence, this does provide some context to low earnings growth seen by the company.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that National Retail Properties' reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 12% in the same period, which is not something we like to see.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Is NNN fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is National Retail Properties Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

National Retail Properties seems to be paying out most of its income as dividends judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 71% (or a retention ratio of 29%). However, this is typical for REITs as they are often required by law to distribute most of their earnings. Accordingly, this suggests that the company's earnings growth was lower as a result of the high payout.

Additionally, National Retail Properties has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth.

Summary

On the whole, National Retail Properties' performance is quite a big let-down. Because the company is not reinvesting much into the business, and given the low ROE, it's not surprising to see the lack or absence of growth in its earnings. That being so, the latest analyst forecasts show that the company will continue to see an expansion in its earnings. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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