It’s hard to describe just how much of a favorite Joey Chestnut is in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.
Chestnut, 37, is going for his sixth consecutive win in the contest and his 14th victory in the last 15 years. And no one is expected to come close to beating him on Sunday in the annual July 4 extravaganza (noon ET, ESPN).
Chestnut is an incredible -5000 favorite to win the men’s event at BetMGM in Colorado. His odds mean that you have to place a $5,000 bet on Chestnut just to win $100. To put that bet into perspective, England is -250 to beat Ukraine on Saturday in Euro 2020, Clemson’s football team is -900 to win the ACC in 2021, and the Tampa Bay Lightning are -1400 to win the Stanley Cup after winning the first two games against Montreal.
The only two major bets we could find with odds equal to or smaller than Chestnut’s to win were the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish in the top two of the NFC South (-5000) and the Kansas City Chiefs to finish in the top two of the AFC West (-10000).
Chestnut’s odds are also against the field. BetMGM’s wager to win is simply Chestnut or everyone else. You can take any other competitor in the competition to win at +1100. That’s a remarkable return for a bet like that.
The more even hot dog contest wager involves the number of hot dogs that Chestnut will eat. He set the world record of 75 hot dogs in 10 minutes at the 2020 event and the odds are in his favor that he’ll at least come close to that number again. The over/under is set at 73.5. If you think Chestnut is going to eat 74 or more hot dogs and maybe set another record, the odds are at -225. If you believe he’ll come up short, you can get under 73.5 at +170.
On the women’s side, Michelle Lesco is also a big favorite — but nowhere near Chestnut’s status. Lesco is -900 to win the women’s contest while the field is at +500.
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