Woulda, coulda, shoulda
We hear the same question every time a young hot-shot driver breaks onto the Sprint Cup scene: Is he the next Jeff Gordon?
Right now, the "it" driver is Joey Logano, who isn't even 18 yet. Still, that doesn't stop speculation about how good he could be.
Invariably, it's never the driver tooting his own horn – unless handing out business cards a la Carl Edwards can be considered as such – but rather a team owner, the media or even a fellow driver. It was, after all, Mark Martin who first started talking up Logano when he was only 15.
Instead of enjoying the real Jeff Gordon, our own impatience demands to see the next Jeff Gordon. And so we speculate, harnessing unsuspecting talents with expectations they never asked for but will heretofore be saddled with like a sled dog in the Iditarod.
Frankly, after nearly a decade, we still haven't found the next Gordon, as very few of today's Cup drivers – with perhaps the exception of Kyle Busch – have really come close to living up to their advance billing of supposed future greatness. That doesn't mean that they're busts or bad drivers, but the difference between expectations coming into the series and reality after a few seasons of racing in it can be stark.
Oftentimes, it's not necessarily the driver's fault. If he joins the wrong team, particularly those at a performance or funding disadvantage, a potential championship career could be derailed before it ever gets started.
With this in mind, Y! Sports looked at drivers over the last decade who arrived with much fanfare, yet have fallen short of expectations to one degree or another.
Counting down from 10th to first (along with a few honorable mentions), here's Y! Sport's top 10 list of woulda's, coulda's and shoulda's – those drivers who have yet to live up to their advance billing.:
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: When you're Dale Earnhardt Jr., you're expected to win every single week. So it's virtually impossible for Junior to live up to expectations. And while he has developed into a good racer – 17 career Cup wins proves that – he's still seeking that one elusive prize that separates him from being good (just his father's son) and being great (his own man): a Cup championship.
OUTLOOK: At DEI, odds were probably 50-50 at best that Junior would ever win a Cup title. Now at Hendrick Motorsports, it's not a matter of if Junior will win a Cup title, it's more a matter of when – and ultimately, how many. This year? With the way it's started, it could be his best shot yet, which would forever strike him from lists like this.
9. Kevin Harvick: How he's fared since he came to the Cup ranks in 2001 hasn't entirely been Harvick's fault. He faced one of the toughest roles any NASCAR driver has ever gone through, replacing the late Dale Earnhardt. Harvick has shown signs of greatness at times, including winning the 2003 Brickyard 400 and the '07 Daytona 500. And even though he's won two Busch Series titles, Harvick has yet to do what Earnhardt Sr. was so adept at: winning Cup championships.
OUTLOOK: Harvick has matured into a championship contender. But when adversity strikes, he and his team have struggled to overcome it. While he has the talent and the organization (Richard Childress Racing) to win at least one Cup title, there's still that nagging doubt that he may become the Mark Martin of his generation: a great, winning, successful driver who never earned the sport's biggest prize.
8. Casey Mears: Has a great pedigree, being the son of one of the great off-road racers (Roger Mears) and nephew of a four-time Indy 500 champ (Rick Mears). Team owner Chip Ganassi surprised the NASCAR world by hiring Mears to drive a Cup car in 2003 after just one season in the Busch Series (when Mears finished a less-than-impressive 21st in the standings).
But since making the move to the Cup series, Mears hasn't been able to add much to the family trophy case. He finally broke through for his first career win last May in the Coca-Cola 600, but more is expected, especially when you're driving for Hendrick Motorsports. Last year, his first with Hendrick, he recorded five top fives, 10 top 10s, but more often than not he wound up with a mediocre finish.
OUTLOOK: If Mears' performance doesn't improve, could this be his last season at HMS? If he can't be a success at Hendrick, it's doubtful he'll be one anywhere else on the Cup level. If he's given the boot, Mears is still young enough (30) to consider going back to the reunified Indy car series.
7. Brian Vickers: He caused quite a stir when he joined Hendrick Motorsports fresh out of high school. But since then, he has only one career Cup win, and a controversial one at that when he inadvertently wrecked then-teammate Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. to win at Talladega two years ago.
Feeling he'd be stuck as the No. 4 driver at HMS for too many seasons still to come, Vickers left for Red Bull Racing shortly afterward, a place where he struggled considerably last season (when he failed to qualify for 13 of 36 races). He's made the show every week this season, and considering the uphill battle his team faces every week, his 19th-place standing in the points is solid. Still, much more was expected.
OUTLOOK: At 24, he’s still a work in progress. It's far too early to think he'll always be an also-ran. As Vickers and his team mature together, he has potential for greatness. Could he eventually win a championship? Sure. But I'm not totally convinced it'll be with the Red Bull camp. Somewhere else? Quite possibly.
6. Dave Blaney: An outstanding sprint car driver, including winning the 1995 World of Outlaws national championship, Blaney has suffered from poor teams and poor funding through much of his Cup career. He's kind of the Rodney Dangerfield of NASCAR: he just doesn't get any respect (and when he does, bad luck typically erases that).
He's had three unimpressive stints with Bill Davis Racing; was victimized when then-Jasper Motorsports struggled for performance and funding; lasted less than two seasons with Richard Childress Racing before being dumped in favor of then-rookie Clint Bowyer; and once again finds himself looking up from the bottom (37th in owner points).
OUTLOOK: If Blaney knew how rough NASCAR would be, maybe he might have stayed in the sprint car world. He likely would have been much more successful. But now, he's at an age (45) where there's little choice but to play out his string in the Cup series for as long as he can.
5. J.J. Yeley: After an outstanding career in sprint cars and dirt track racing, including joining former teammate Tony Stewart as the only drivers in history to win USAC's triple crown (capturing the Midget, Sprint Car and Silver Crown titles) in 2003, Yeley moved to Cup racing in 2005 based largely upon Stewart's recommendation to Joe Gibbs Racing.
Unfortunately, Yeley's transition to stock cars hasn't been so successful. He's yet to win and has only one top-five finish in 86 career Cup starts.
With that lack of performance, it's not surprising JGR released him at the end of last season to make way for Kyle Busch. While Yeley landed at JGR satellite Hall of Fame Racing, the change of scenery hasn't helped: his best finish this season is 25th (twice).
OUTLOOK: Like Mears, given how little success he's had to date, Yeley is still young enough (31) to go back to either the sprint car world or potentially the IRL, where he dabbled for several races earlier in his career.
4. Elliott Sadler: Sadler has been tabbed for success at each of his three stops on the Cup circuit – first at the Wood Brothers, then Robert Yates Racing and, most recently, Gillett Evernham Motorsports. But other than finishing ninth in the first Chase in 2004 and a couple of roof-top finishes at Talladega, Sadler's career has been pretty uneventful.
OUTLOOK: This is a perfect example of not being with the right organizations for much of his career. But failing to significantly improve his lot at GEM, where he's got the best resources and support staff he's ever had, could mean Sadler simply is not destined for Cup greatness.
3. Kasey Kahne: His talent was in such demand that two manufacturers – Ford and Dodge – went to court for rights to his services. (The latter ultimately won out.) Even though he picked up the nickname "Krash Kahne" for 11 wrecks in his first two years, Kahne showed his talent when he won a Cup series high six wins in 2006. However, he went winless in 2007 and hasn't been a threat to win yet in '08
OUTLOOK: Like Vickers, Kahne is still a work in progress. But how long will he remain at GEM? If a bigger, more successful organization beckons in the future – like Hendrick, Gibbs or even Childress – Kahne may jump teams if it means getting in better equipment to give him a better shot at winning a Cup championship. At the same time, he might mirror Harvick and be yet another Mark "close but no cigar" Martin when it comes to doing so.
2. Jamie McMurray: Perhaps the biggest anomaly on the circuit today. The former Midwest late model racing star came into the Cup series as a fill-in for the injured Sterling Marlin and made a huge splash, winning in only his second start. Team owner Chip Ganassi promised big things from McMurray, but his young driver from Joplin, Mo., delivered only sparingly.
Big things were expected of McMurray when he moved to Roush Fenway Racing in 2006, but he floundered almost from the start. Though he finally won his second Cup race last summer at Daytona, he wound up 17th in the standings.
He has the talent, organization and resources to be a big success, yet isn't anywhere close – and no one can figure out why.
OUTLOOK: If McMurray, currently 26th in the standings after eight races, doesn't markedly improve by season's end, don't be surprised if Jack Roush sends him packing – particularly since RFR has to cut its number of teams from five to four by the end of 2009 due to NASCAR mandate.
1. Casey Atwood: Has become the subject of a whatever-happened-to question. Atwood picked up the "next Jeff Gordon" label when Ray Evernham brought him into Cup racing at 19. Two years later, Atwood was history, booted from the Evernham camp.
OUTLOOK: There is no outlook for Atwood, at least not right now. After a few years kicking around the then-Busch Series, Atwood is no longer in any of the three professional classes of NASCAR racing.
Honorable mention: Robby Gordon left the Indy car world for NASCAR in 1997. But based upon his overall lack of success on the Cup circuit – three wins, just 14 career top-five finishes in 278 starts, and has yet to finish a season higher than 16th (average season finish over nine years is 31st) in the standings – one has to wonder if Gordon might have been a more successful racer if he stayed in the open-wheel world. … Ditto for John Andretti, another driver whose surname preceded him, no matter what racing series he's competed in. He has talent and skill of his own right, but will forever be compared to his more famous uncle Mario and cousin Michael. … After finishing fourth in the Busch Series in 2005, Reed Sorenson was promoted to Cup racing the following year by team owner Chip Ganassi. Unfortunately, the Georgia native has had a tough time of it, finishing 24th as a rookie, 22nd last season and currently sits 31st after this season's first eight races. Rumors are starting to fly that if he doesn't substantially pick up his performance, Sorenson will be replaced at season's end by Indy car superstar Dan Wheldon. … After his impressive win at Kentucky in the Busch Series in 2006 with a low-budget team prompted interest from several Cup teams, David Gilliland joined Robert Yates Racing to replace Sadler (who jumped ship to the Evernham operation). While Gilliland has not set the world on fire, he has shown slow but steady progress. He comes to Talladega this weekend ranked 21st. … Scott Pruett developed a great rep in Indy car racing, but his tenure on the Cup circuit was short-lived: just one full season (in 2000 when he failed to qualify for six of the season's 34 races, ultimately finishing 37th in the final standings) before Cal Wells released him. Pruett still makes an occasional road course start in either the Cup or Nationwide series (like he did this past Sunday in Mexico), but he's a perfect example of a guy who should have stayed where he was in open-wheel racing.
