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NASCAR odds this week for Nashville: Kyle Larson still favored; Chase Elliott still in need

Sometimes, they tell us, you just can’t win for losing.

That’s not entirely true, for even the worst of slumps (who you lookin’ at?) will eventually end if you just keep taking your cuts.

And so it did, when Martin Truex Jr. won on Sonoma’s road course and turned my (theoretical, of course) $50 wager into a (um, yes, theoretical) $1,500 payout.

What’s that? First you’re hearing about it?

Well, wouldn’t you know it, I pick a winner for the first time in many weeks and, due to the ensuing off-week, couldn’t crow about it for a fortnight!

But here we are, with ol’ Money Bags here hoping any semblance of momentum survived the down time and strikes up a winning tune on the outskirts of Nashville, where Year 3 of the Ally 400 runs Sunday night (yes, night).

A look at the odds board tells us the Boys in Bookmaking have bought into Truex’s recent production. But he’s not the favorite. Nope. Sometimes I think Kyle Larson could roll to the grid in a Kia Soul and still be favored.

Let’s graze on some numbers …

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NASCAR QNA From Nashville to Watkins Glen and beyond, busy weekend coming up

Martin Truex wasn't the only one celebrating after that Sonoma win.
Martin Truex wasn't the only one celebrating after that Sonoma win.

The Favorite(s)

Kyle Larson +500, Martin Truex +700, Kyle Busch +750, William Byron +850, Denny Hamlin +850, Chase Elliott +850

For a guy who hasn’t won since mid-April at Martinsville, Larson sure draws a lot of action from the bettors. Since that last win, Kyle has more finishes of 30th or worse (three) than he does top-fives (two). This reminds us, in auto racing, there’s a lot more that can go wrong than go right. Meanwhile, the Chase Elliott Checkered Flag Hunt continues.

The Chase Elliott countdown continues. He needs a win over the next 10 weeks to earn a spot in the playoffs.
The Chase Elliott countdown continues. He needs a win over the next 10 weeks to earn a spot in the playoffs.

Better payoffs, but who’s worth the gamble?

Ross Chastain +1,100, Christopher Bell +1,100, Ryan Blaney +1,200, Tyler Reddick +1,600, Joey Logano +1,800, Kevin Harvick +2,000, Bubba Wallace +2,200

Bookmark this group and let’s consider a revisit shortly.

Worth a look

Like last year, we might have to wait until August in Daytona to put some money on Austin Dillon.
Like last year, we might have to wait until August in Daytona to put some money on Austin Dillon.

Ty Gibbs +3,500, Brad Keselowski +4,500, Austin Dillon +10,000

You still have to worry about missing the Ty Gibbs train once it breaks loose and those odds come tumbling down. Kez is in a mini-slump but likely took advantage of the week off to find answers. And Dillon? RCR teammate Kyle Busch sorta indicates the cars aren’t an issue, so you have to figure Dillon will look up some Sunday and realize he’s among the leaders.

Some props

DraftKings offers wagers on manufacturers each week. Chevy is the heavy favorite nearly every race, and this week that camp sits at -105 to win, meaning a $100 wager would net you $95. Toyota is +190 and Ford is luring us at +330, though you’re basically putting your hopes on just three guys — Kevin Harvick, Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano.

The Chase Elliott-versus-Martin Truex prop is the most intriguing head-to-head matchup, with both at -115. I'd have to lean Truex there.

Last Race

As you may have heard, that $50 Truex wager paid off at Sonoma. As mentioned that was worth $1,500, which can also be described as 1.5 thousand dollars, or as I prefer to call it: .0015 MILLION bucks.

But just to make sure things didn’t go too well at Sonoma, the $50 prop on Denny Hamlin’s top-five went behind the wall in the later laps, but only after first going into the wall.

This Week

A reminder on the new format. Two bets and that’s all, totaling $100: $50 on a winner, the other $50 on any prop bet available.

Let’s prop $50 on Joey Logano to finish in the top five. He’s had back-to-back finishes of third, with the first coming at Gateway in St. Louis, where the track, like Nashville, sits in the notch between 1 and 1½ miles — Gateway is 1.25 miles, Nashville 1.33.

Fifty bucks on Joey at +200 would net us $100, which isn’t a ton but you get what you pay for.

Ryan Blaney
Ryan Blaney

And for the win, I’m going with the one driver in that second group of favorites who I thought should’ve been in the first — Ryan Blaney. That would be worth $600, and I know what a reasonable person might be thinking.

“If you think Blaney will win, why not take the entire Ford camp, at +330, in the team prop and sweep the weekend?”

Easy answer: I don’t necessarily think Blaney will win, I just think he’s the best possibility at the best payoff price.

And never, ever question a man on a one-week winning streak!

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR odds this week: Kyle Larson favored at Nashville, Elliott needy