Are you willing to bet against a Hendrick Motorsports driver at Dover?
Chase Elliott won the 2022 race at the track as three of the team’s four drivers finished in the top 10. A year earlier, Alex Bowman won the race as Hendrick drivers finished 1-2-3-4 at the concrete one-mile oval.
Hendrick has long been the dominant team at Dover and the betting odds don’t think that will change ahead of Sunday’s race (2 p.m. ET, FS1). Kyle Larson is the favorite while William Byron and Chase Elliott are right behind him.
Last year’s race at Dover was the first with the current Cup Series car and it was a lot different than previous Dover races. Drivers struggled for grip as the race featured eight cautions for wrecks or spins. The 13 total cautions during the race were the most for any Dover race since there were 15 cautions in the spring of 2017. That race, coincidentally, was won by Hendrick Motorsports’ Jimmie Johnson. It was his final Cup Series win.
Going back further, the 2022 race was also just the fourth since 2011 with 10 or more caution flags. Dover has a recent history of relatively few cautions. And one race with the new car isn’t enough of a sample size to guess whether or not that will start to change or if last year was an outlier.
Here’s what you need to know to bet Sunday’s race. All odds are via BetMGM.
Kyle Larson (+600)
William Byron (+700)
Chase Elliott (+700)
Denny Hamlin (+900)
Martin Truex Jr. (+900)
Larson has the best average finish of any active driver at Dover and is really, really good at the track. He has a win, seven top-fives and 11 top-10 finishes in 14 starts. His average finish is 6.9. Elliott has the second-best average finish at 9.8, while Byron has been fast this year but hasn’t had much Dover success. He has three top-10 finishes in eight starts. Truex has three wins in 32 starts at the track, while Hamlin has just one win in 32 starts. That win came in 2020 when Dover hosted two 311-mile races in the same weekend.
Good mid-tier value
Kyle Busch (+1600)
Tyler Reddick (+2000)
Busch is tied for the lead among active drivers with three wins at the track and has 21 top-10 finishes in 34 starts. Reddick crashed out of last year’s race and has just one top-10 finish in four starts, but we think he’ll be a contender on Sunday.
Don’t bet this driver
Bubba Wallace (+3300)
We’re not so sure about Reddick’s 23XI Racing teammate, however. Wallace has never finished in the top 10 in eight Dover starts and his average finish is outside the top 20. We’re much more comfortable considering Wallace at superspeedways and intermediate tracks.
Looking for a long shot?
Daniel Suarez (+5000)
We had to do a double-take at these odds for Suarez. He has five top-10 finishes in 10 Dover starts and his average finish is 13.3. Yeah, he’s led just 22 laps in those 10 starts, but 50-1 odds on a guy with that top-10 rate is worth a shot.