NASCAR betting: Is Kansas where Tyler Reddick breaks through?

When the NASCAR Cup Series circuit visits 1.5-mile tracks, Tyler Reddick is a factor. Reddick has steered the No. 8 Chevrolet to five-straight top-10 finishes on these ovals.

That run began in May at Kansas Speedway, site of Sunday‘s Hollywood Casino 400 (3 p.m. ET on NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), the last race employing the 550-horsepower, high-downforce package on the 2021 NASCAR schedule. In other words, this is Reddick‘s last best opportunity to break through to Victory Lane for the first time in his Cup career. He‘s priced at 25-1 odds or better around the betting market to do that.

KANSAS: Betting odds | Weekend schedule | Paint schemes

Over those five races, Reddick‘s 7.4 average finish ranks fourth in the series, and the 200 points he has collected are fifth best. He‘s running up there with the big boys at these tracks, making his long odds look awfully enticing.

Here are odds to win this weekend at Kansas from NASCAR‘s three official betting partners — Barstool Sportsbook, BetMGM, and WynnBET. As of Friday morning, Barstool has the nicest price on Reddick:

OK, we know by this point in the season it‘s rare for anyone not from the Hendrick, Gibbs or Penske teams to win a Cup race. It has happened only five times in the 33 races so far — two of those outliers have occurred on restrictor-plate tracks and one emerged from the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course.

Still, at 25-1 odds or better, a gambler can‘t be blamed for taking a shot on Reddick.

There are, of course, more realistic ways to invest in the No. 8. Here‘s a handful to consider from around the betting marketplace.

• Top-three finish, +750 (Barstool)

• Top-five finish, +325 (WynnBET)

• Top-10 finish, -122 (Barstool)

• Reddick -121 over Christopher Bell (Barstool)

• Reddick -120 over Alex Bowman (WynnBET)

• Reddick +110 over Kevin Harvick (SuperBook)

• Reddick -110 over Joey Logano (SuperBook)

TIGHTENING LARSON

We wrote in this space last week that oddsmakers were tempting bettors by offering Kyle Larson at better than 3-1 odds at Texas Motor Speedway. Larson delivered for chalk players with his eighth win of the season.

The sportsbooks aren‘t being as generous this week, tightening Larson to the +225 to +250 range.

While Larson has won on all kinds of layouts this year, his dominance has been more pronounced on 1.5s. In the eight races on these tracks this season, he has three wins and five top fives, and he has led an astounding 1,187 laps; Denny Hamlin‘s 225 laps led are a distant second.

Larson‘s price is pretty skinny this week, though, and with his spot in the Championship 4 secured, it‘s fair to wonder how the Hendrick garage and No. 5 team will approach Sunday‘s race — do they go all out for a Larson win, or do they put their resources behind Chase Elliott and save Larson‘s best stuff for Phoenix Raceway?

AROUND THE GARAGE

Kyle Busch. At 8-1 odds, Kyle Busch deserves a look. He won the spring race at Kansas, and he has been stellar on 550-horsepower tracks, never finishing outside the top 10 in 11 starts (including the two races at Pocono Raceway and one at Michigan International Speedway). In addition to the Kansas win, Busch has a victory at Pocono, two second-place finishes and three thirds. In the eight races on 1.5-mile tracks, his 4.4 average finish leads the series (Larson is second at 7.0).

William Byron. After finishing second and leading 55 laps at Texas, Byron has gained respect with the betting market. Priced in the +1600 to +1900 range last week, the No. 24 Chevy is a consensus +1000 at Kansas. Byron won at Homestead-Miami Speedway and has six top-10s, including three in the top five, on 1.5s this season.

Kevin Harvick. Harvick is searching his first win of 2021, but priced around 15-1, the No. 4 still commands a measure of respect among oddsmakers and bettors. He does have an excellent history at Kansas; his 9.1 average career finish tops in the field. His 9.0 average finish at 1.5s this season keeps him in the mix, but ninth is a long way from first and cashing tickets at those long odds.

Marcus DiNitto is a writer and editor living in Charlotte, North Carolina. He has been covering sports for nearly two-and-a-half decades and sports betting for more than 10 years. His first NASCAR betting experience was in 1995 at North Wilkesboro Speedway, where he went 0-for-3 on his matchup picks. Read his articles and follow him on Twitter; do not bet his picks.