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MVP awards 2018: Sizing up the finalists and making our picks

In baseball awards season, they save the biggest and best for last. This year, though, they may not be saving the most suspenseful award for last.

MVP awards in the American League and National League will be handed out Thursday and unlike the Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year and Cy Young awards, these seem pretty tightly locked up.

We have six finalists — a group that includes Mookie Betts, José Ramírez and Mike Trout in the AL, then Nolan Arenado, Javier Báez and Christian Yelich in the NL — but it would be a shocker if Betts and Yelich didn’t walk away with the awards.

They each have solid cases, with credentials that span both traditional stats and advanced metrics. And they pass the eye-test. The awards will be handed out at 6 p.m. ET in a live TV special on MLB Network. Before that, though, here’s a look at all six finalists and picks from our writers:

Mookie Betts is looking to become the Boston Red Sox first MVP since Dustin Pedroia in 2008. (AP)
Mookie Betts is looking to become the Boston Red Sox first MVP since Dustin Pedroia in 2008. (AP)

American League

Mookie Betts — Red Sox

Is there anything Mookie Betts can’t do? The heart and soul of the Red Sox lineup took several steps forward again in 2018, further cementing his status as a perennial MVP contender and one of baseball’s best all-around talents.

Betts, who finished with a .346 batting average, won the Red Sox first battling title since Bill Mueller in 2003. In doing so, he became the first batting champion in MLB history to also record a 30-30 season (32 homers and 30 steals). Betts also led the league in runs scored (129), slugging percentage (.640) and was second in extra-base hits (84), while adding an All-Star selection, his third Gold Glove award and second Silver Slugger to his list of accolades.

Cleveland Indians infielder José Ramírez has become a perennial MVP contender. (AP)
Cleveland Indians infielder José Ramírez has become a perennial MVP contender. (AP)

José Ramírez — Indians

José Ramírez remains one of MLB’s most underappreciated stars, which is difficult to imagine given his consistent high-end production. He often takes a backseat to his own teammate, Francisco Lindor, but that should change after putting together another MVP caliber season in 2018.

Ramírez’s 2017 was one of the best offensive seasons in Indians franchise history. He took that to another level in 2018, boasting career highs in home runs (39), RBIs (105), on-base percentage (.387), stolen bases (34) and walks (106). The latter stat more than doubling his previous career high. In fact, Ramírez joined Betts as the only 30-30 players in MLB this season. The competition is stiff, but Ramírez has proven he belongs in the conversation.

Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout could be on the verge of his third AL MVP award. (AP)
Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout could be on the verge of his third AL MVP award. (AP)

Mike Trout — Angels

Another year meant another MVP caliber season for Mike Trout. The Los Angeles Angels outfielder overcame a minor wrist injury to post perhaps his best season to date. That says a lot considering he’s already won two MVPs and finished top five in the voting in each of his six full seasons.

Trout posted a .312 batting average to go along with a league-leading .460 on-base percentage, .628 slugging percentage, 1.088 OPS and 199.OPS+. The slugging number was one point behind his career best. That the Angels failed to make the postseason again was clearly more about how the team was constructed than how Trout performed. He’s firmly established himself as the best baseball player walking the Earth, and he’s quickly moving up the ranks of the all-time best. Oh, and he’s still only 26.

Nolan Arenado is looking to join Larry Walker as Colorado Rockies MVPs. (AP)
Nolan Arenado is looking to join Larry Walker as Colorado Rockies MVPs. (AP)

National League

Nolan Arenado — Rockies

The Rockies have only had one MVP during their 26-year existence. That was Larry Walker in 1997. Playing in Coors Field sometimes seems to push voters away from Rockies players, but Arenado’s reputation as an all-around player (six-time Gold Glove winner, four-time Silver Slugger) keeps him the in the yearly mix.

Arenado looked like a front runner for most of 2018, but did tail off late when a shoulder issue seemed to drain some of his power. The sluggish finish, coupled with teammate Trevor Story having a similar season, probably knocks him down a peg. But man, the numbers are still plenty juicy. Arenado posted a .297/.374/.561 while hitting an NL-leading 38 homers, and was also named the NL Platinum Glove winner as the league’s best defender. If not for Yelich, who knows.

Javier Báez did it all for the Chicago Cubs during an MVP caliber season. (AP)
Javier Báez did it all for the Chicago Cubs during an MVP caliber season. (AP)

Javier Báez — Chicago Cubs

In a Cubs lineup filled with superstars like Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras, Javier Báez always finds a way to stand out. Why? Because he’s productive, versatile and ridiculously fun to watch. That all remained true in 2018, and it’s why Báez is a finalist for MVP.

The 25-year-old infielder did a little of everything for manager Joe Maddon. That included playing elite level defense at three different positions — second base, third base and shortstop. At the plate, Baez had been a little less consistent coming into this season but every bit as dynamic thanks to an aggressive approach and an ability to hit to all fields. This year, Báez really put it all together, posting a .290/.326/.554 (all career highs) line, to go along with an NL-leading 111 RBIs.

Will Christian Yelich's hot September for the Milwaukee Brewers be enough to earn NL MVP? (AP)
Will Christian Yelich’s hot September for the Milwaukee Brewers be enough to earn NL MVP? (AP)

Christian Yelich — Brewers

Christian Yelich was an MVP sleeper most of the season. Then September came. During the season’s final month Yelich leapfrogged a large crowd of contenders while helping lead the Brewers to their first postseason berth since 2011.

In September and Game 163 in Chicago on Oct. 1, Yelich posted a ridiculous .370/.508/.804 slashline with 10 home runs, 34 RBIs and 24 walks. Milwaukee went 20-7 during those games while rallying from a 3.5-game deficit to steal the NL Central from the Cubs. Make no mistake, Yelich was a contender even before that stretch. But it elevated him to a near triple crown level. He won the NL batting title (.326) and led the league in OPS (1.000), OPS+ (164) and total bases (343).

Our Picks

Chris Cwik

AL — Mookie Betts: I don’t think Betts is an easy choice. While his average and slugging percentage were better than Trout’s, the Angels outfielder actually posted a higher wRC+, an advanced stat that measures offensive performance. It was close, though, which means one of the main reasons Betts lead Trout in fWAR this year was his defense. Relying on defensive metrics in a one-year sample is often dangerous, but Betts has been elite defensively for multiple seasons — the stats and the scouts agree on that.

NL — Christian Yelich: Jacob deGrom had a legitimate case for NL MVP, so it’s disappointing to see him left out of the finalists. Of the offensive players considered, Yelich set himself apart from the pack with an unreal second half. The 26-year-old slashed .367/.449/.770, with 25 home runs after the All-Star break. The race between Yelich and Arenado was exceptionally close in mid-September, but Yelich hitting .370 during the month gave him the push he needed to take home the award.

Mike Oz

AL — Mookie Betts: In these debates, we so often wrestle with new stats vs. old stats. In this case, Betts can be a great crossover. He led MLB in Wins Above Replacement (his 10.4 was better than Trout’s 9.8) and hit the most traditional eye-test metric: He was the best player on the best team. This is Mookie easily for me.

NL — Christian Yelich: Yelich put this away in September like my colleagues have said, and here’s the reason I don’t think this will be particularly close: Voters tend to give more weight to the second half. Yelich did everything you want in that sense. He took a team on the brink and helped them over the hump.

Mark Townsend

AL — Mike Trout: He’s still the best player in baseball. The numbers continue to back it up. It should never be too boring or too predictable to give him this award when he keeps earning it.

NL — Christian Yelich: Sometimes timing matters when it comes to these awards. Yelich was the best player in baseball when it mattered the most to his team. He basically willed Milwaukee to the postseason, which is what I feel breaks him away from this talented pack.

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