Mussatto: Revealing my NBA awards ballot, which includes MVP consideration for SGA
Expect the Thunder to be well-represented as NBA individual award winners are unveiled this week and next.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a Most Improved Player finalist and All-NBA lock. Guard Jalen Williams is a Rookie of the Year finalist and All-Rookie lock. Mark Daigneault is one of three finalists for Coach of the Year.
All three of those names, along with one other Thunder player, appeared on my official NBA awards ballot.
Here’s how I voted.
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NBA Most Valuable Player voting
1. Joel Embiid, 76ers
2. Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
4. Jayson Tatum, Celtics
5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
Why Embiid over Jokic? Embiid had the best offensive season of his career, narrowing the gap between him and Jokic — who’s still on a level unto himself offensively. Meanwhile, the defensive edge Embiid has over Jokic widened.
I had Antetokounmpo third, but he has as good of a case as Embiid or Jokic. Antetokounmpo is the best player on the best team.
Tatum is on his own island — well behind the top-three, and well ahead of No. 5.
I voted Shai Gilgeous-Alexander fifth. This is not a homer pick. I cover the Thunder as objectively as I can, because if I didn’t, my coverage wouldn’t be worth a darn.
Now, is there an inherent bias? Probably so. I watched every minute Gilgeous-Alexander played. I saw far, far less of the three other players I considered for this spot — Donovan Mitchell, Domantas Sabonis and Luka Doncic.
SGA led the Thunder, a team I picked to win 20-something games, all the way to the play-in. No team outperformed its projected win total more than the Thunder.
Gilgeous-Alexander finished fourth in scoring at 31.4 points per game, and his defensive improvement was even more drastic than his offensive output. Mitchell, Sabonis and Doncic aren't even close to the defender SGA is.
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NBA Defensive Player of the Year voting
1. Jarren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies
2. Brook Lopez, Bucks
3. Draymond Green, Warriors
Unlike the MVP ballot, which requires a top five, the rest of the individual awards are limited to a top three.
The case against Jackson is simple. He played 63 games to Lopez’s 78.
But here’s my case for Jackson. The Grizzlies allowed 106.6 points per 100 possessions with Jackson on the court. That equates to the best defense in the NBA by a good margin. When he was off the court, the Grizzlies allowed 111.6 points per 100 possessions.
Jackson is the reason why Memphis has such a good defense. Lopez was elite defensively this season and is my easy No. 2 pick, but he also plays alongside two other top defenders in Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday.
Green’s on/off splits are even more drastic than Jackson’s. The Warriors have a bottom-10 defense in the NBA when Green is off the floor. When he’s on the floor, the Warriors have a better defense than the Cavaliers, which boast the best defense in the NBA.
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NBA Most Improved Player voting
1. Lauri Markkanen, Jazz
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
3. Jalen Brunson, Knicks
Would you be more surprised if Markkanen or Gilgeous-Alexander made the All-Star Game? Would you be more surprised if Gilgeous-Alexander finished fourth in scoring, or if Markkanen finished 12th? Would you be more surprised if Gilgeous-Alexander had 51/35/91 shooting splits (field goal %, 3-point %, free throw %), or if Markkanen had 50/39/88 shooting splits?
If you asked me any of those questions before the season, my answer would’ve been Markkanen.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s leap is more impactful, more franchise altering, but Markkanen’s leap is more stunning, at least to me. I knew Gilgeous-Alexander was a star. I didn’t know Markkanen would ever be more than a serviceable journeyman with untapped upside.
Brunson was a tough All-NBA cut for me, but I was glad to put his name on the ballot here. He brought stability to the Knicks. The Knicks!
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NBA Sixth Man of the Year voting
1. Malcolm Brogdon, Celtics
2. Immanuel Quickley, Knicks
Brogdon and Quickley are going to finish first and second. I gave the slightest of edges to Brogdon, who had a remarkably efficient season captaining Boston’s bench.
Their numbers are nearly identical, although Quickley does have the advantage in games played — 81 to 67.
After a clear top two, there’s nothing clear about No. 3. All sorts of names are going to appear on the ballot. I went with Powell, who led the NBA in bench points (17.6 per game).
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NBA Rookie of the Year voting
1. Paolo Banchero, Magic
2. Jalen Williams, Thunder
3. Walker Kessler, Jazz
I didn’t have much trouble with this one.
For as good as Williams was, Banchero averaged 20.0 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.7 assists over a 72-game stretch, all while being Orlando’s first or second option.
Was he efficient? No, not even close to Williams in that category, but Williams was asked to do far less for the Thunder.
That’s no knock on Williams. Not at all. The Thunder drafted a Rookie of the Year candidate at No. 12. That’s good business. And he was the third player the Thunder drafted, behind Chet Holmgren (No. 2) and Ousmane Dieng (No. 11).
Kessler, drafted 22nd, was another terrific value. He reminds me of another former Jazz center.
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NBA Clutch Player of the Year voting
1. De’Aaron Fox, Kings
2. Jimmy Butler, Heat
3. DeMar DeRozan, Bulls
The NBA limited the pool of players eligible to win this award, which is being given out for the first time.
Fox is going to be the runaway winner. He had 194 points in clutch time. Second was DeRozan with 159. Third, you got it, Jimmy Butler with 151.
Listen, I take my vote seriously and do a ton of research, but I tried not to overthink this one. It’s kind of a silly award.
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NBA Coach of the Year voting
1. Mike Brown, Kings
2. Mark Daigneault, Thunder
3. J.B. Bickerstaff, Cavaliers
Brown and the Beam Lighters were/are the best story in the NBA.
Around here, we thought Daigneault was a good coach, and this season only solidified that. He led the most surprising turnaround in the NBA. He’s a tactical genius and his players love him. Check and check.
The Cavaliers of Cleveland were the second-best team in the NBA by net rating. Donovan Mitchell is a star, as is Darius Garland, and Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are dominant defensive players. Bickerstaff brought out the best in all of them.
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NBA All-Rookie first team voting
Paolo Banchero, Magic
Jalen Williams, Thunder
Walker Kessler, Jazz
Jaden Ivey, Pistons
Keegan Murray, Kings
All-Rookie, unlike All-Defense and All-NBA, isn’t voted on by positions.
I touched on Banchero, Williams and Kessler, who finished one through three on my Rookie of the Year ballot.
Ivey finished third among rookies in points and first in assists. Murray’s case is ironclad. He starts for the No. 3 seed in the West.
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NBA All-Rookie second team voting
Andrew Nembhard, Pacers
Jalen Duren, Pistons
Jabari Smith Jr., Rockets
Mathurin ranked second to Banchero in rookie scoring. Eason is a mad man, and I mean that in the best of ways. Nembhard, picked 31st, was second among rookies in assists and third in steals. Duren looks and plays like he’s 25 (he’s still 19). I’m still a believer in Smith, who averaged 12.8 points per game and was third among rookies in rebounds.
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NBA All-Defensive first team voting
G: Jrue Holiday, Bucks
G: Alex Caruso, Bulls
F: Draymond Green, Warriors
F: Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies
C: Brook Lopez, Bucks
Jackson, Lopez and Green were on my Defensive Player of the Year ballot.
It’s hard to measure impactful defense, both by the eye test and by the numbers, but Holiday and Caruso shine no matter the metric.
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NBA All-Defensive second team voring
G: Derrick White, Celtics
G: Lu Dort, Thunder
F: Jimmy Butler, Heat
F: Evan Mobley, Cavaliers
C: Nic Claxton, Nets
White, not Marcus Smart, was Boston’s best defensive guard.
Defense, like I said, is hard to judge. But Damian Lillard said Lu Dort is the best defender in the NBA and Luka Doncic said Dort is a top-three defender. Lillard and Doncic know more about scoring baskets than I do, so take their word for it.
Butler is still the elite defender he’s always been, and Mobley and Claxton are two of the best young rim protectors in the game.
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All-NBA first team voting
G: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
G: Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers
F: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
F: Jayson Tatum, Celtics
C: Joel Embiid, Sixers
Four of my top-five MVP finishers plus Mitchell, who had the best season of his career, averaging 28.3 points on 48% shooting in his first year in Cleveland.
I voted Embiid over Jokic for MVP, which naturally slides Jokic to the second team.
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All-NBA second team voting
G: Luka Doncic, Mavericks
G: Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers
F: Jimmy Butler, Heat
F: Lauri Markkanen, Jazz
C: Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
Doncic has better raw numbers than SGA, but SGA is slightly more efficient, and SGA is a much, much better defender. And Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder made the play-in over Doncic’s Mavericks.
The Blazers stunk it up despite their franchise star having the best season of his career. Here’s how good Lillard was. The tanktastic Trail Blazers had a positive net rating when Lillard was on the floor.
We don’t talk enough about Butler, but advanced analytics rightfully adore him. Probably because he shot 54%, by far a career-best, while barely turning the ball over. His 1.8 steals ranked second in the NBA.
Markkanen was my pick for Most Improved Player. He averaged 25.6 points and 8.6 rebounds per game.
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All-NBA third team voting
G: Stephen Curry, Warriors
G: De’Aaron Fox, Kings
F: Jaylen Brown, Celtics
F: Julius Randle, Lakers
C: Domantas Sabonis, Kings
Curry only played in 56 games, but I had to include him. He shot 43% from 3-point range on 11.4 attempts per game. That’s absurd.
Fox and Sabonis both deserved spots for leading the Kings out of the desert. Fox played in 73 games and Sabonis played in 79. Sabonis led the league in rebounding and Fox averaged 25 points on 51% shooting.
I flip-flopped on my third-team forwards spots about 17 ½ times. I ended up going with Brown, the second-best player on the second-best team in the NBA, and Randle, who averaged 25.1 points, 10.0 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game.
Randle was my “last player in.” Is he fun to watch? Not always. Does he take the occasional bad shot? Sure does. But he also played 2,700 minutes on a really good Knicks team.
LeBron James and Kevin Durant were my other candidates for Randle’s spot. James and Durant are simply better than Randle. They’re all-timers. Icons. Giants of the game. All things Randle is not.
But James played 1,954 minutes. Durant played just 1,672.
By availability alone, I gave Randle the nod.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Revealing 2023 NBA awards ballot, with nod to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
