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MLB prop betting: Don't start fading Kiké Hernandez now

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There's no football on Tuesday night. We have to wait until Wednesday for college football and Thursday for the NFL. However, it's officially that time of the year where we can survive and even thrive when there's no football on the schedule.

The NBA season gets underway on Tuesday. The NHL season is in full-swing. But most importantly, the MLB playoffs are getting down to crunch time. 

The Dodgers are -175 favorites to get in the win column at home against the Braves and the Red Sox are -130 favorites to extend their series lead over the Astros. However, if you're not feeling confident in picking a winner, you might be more inclined to get invested in the extensive prop markets at BetMGM.

Kiké Hernandez

Unfortunately, BetMGM is not offering a prop for over/under grand slams hit by the Red Sox tonight. You know we'd have to pound the over if they were. 

However, they are offering the next best thing; an over/under on total bases for Kiké Hernandez. That line is set at just 1.5 total bases.

Hernandez had his quietest night in a while on Monday in Boston's 12-3 win over the Astros. Hernandez went a pedestrian 2-4, dropping his postseason average to .615 and his postseason OPS to a measly 2.027. 

HOUSTON, TX - OCTOBER 15: Enrique Hernandez #5 of the Boston Red Sox rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run in the ninth inning during Game 1 of the ALCS between the Boston Red Sox and the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on Friday, October 15, 2021 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Michael Starghill/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Kiké Hernandez is dominating the MLB postseason. (Michael Starghill/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

Go re-read that last paragraph. His QUIETEST night in a while saw him record two hits. His .500 batting average on the day DROPPED his postseason batting average. Getting on base twice cratered his OPS, which now sits at 2.027, which is double the number any elite player posts during a regular season. 

Yes, it's a small sample size and he's bound to cool off eventually. However, I didn't fade Daniel Murphy of the Mets in 2015 and I didn't fade Randy Arozarena of the Rays in last years' playoffs. We're riding this hot streak until the wheels fall off. Give me Kiké over 1.5 total bases, again.

Charlie Morton

Charlie Morton has developed a reputation as a big-game pitcher over the past few years in his time with the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves. 

He'll be back on the bump for the Braves tonight in Los Angeles, and his strikeout prop is set at over/under 5.5 strikeouts.

In 9.1 innings this postseason, Morton has struck out 14 batters. The innings pitched would likely be even higher if he didn't make his second start against Milwaukee on short rest. Morton is on normal rest tonight, which means we should expect him to go at least six innings. From mid-June through the end of September, Morton made 19 starts. He went at least 6 innings in 15 of those starts. He went at least 7 innings in 6 of those starts.

During the regular season, Morton struck out 216 batters over 185.2 innings pitched, or nearly 1.2 batters per inning. His called strike-plus-whiff rate of 30.9% is also very solid. In his two starts against the Dodgers this season, Morton had 13 strikeouts over 11 innings. 

I'd expect Morton to give the Braves some length tonight after Atlanta was forced to go to their bullpen early and often in Game 2. If Morton gives us his usual six innings, I think he cashes over 5.5 strikeouts the vast majority of the time.