MLB K Props, August 29th: Luzardo, Montgomery

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Jesus Luzardo O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Reds

Yes, if you follow me, you knew this was coming.

I want to root for Jesus Luzardo, but since being traded, there is nothing to root for but Unders and the one Over we hit (thanks Cubs).

In August, Luzardo has five starts and a 2-3 record, but it gets worse.

Luzardo owns a 9.67 ERA, .337 OBA and 20 strikeouts to 17 walks in 22.1 innings pitched. He has allowed 24 earned runs in that five-game span and gone Under 4.5 strikeouts in three of the five starts and Under 5.5 Ks in four.

The Marlins youngster has permitted at least three earned runs in all five starts with Miami and five or more runs in three of those five.

Luzardo will meet the Reds for the first time. Luzardo has only faced Asdrubal Cabrera on that roster. Cabrera owns two hits and an RBI in two at-bats versus Luzardo, so not a solid start for Jesus.

NBC's model projects Luzardo to record 4.8 strikeouts in 5.0 innings pitched. When Luzardo made it 5.0 innings, he has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts every time in 2021, but that has been the problem.

I grabbed the Under 5.5 Ks and with NBC's model at 4.8, I like the value there.

Jesus Luzardo
Jesus Luzardo

Only four of the last 10 LHP to face the Reds have made it 5.0 innings pitched. In general, Cincinnati has been solid versus LHP.

Six of the last 10 LHP (60%) or seven of the last 11 LHP (63.6%) went Under 4.5 strikeouts against Cincinnati, per statmuse.

Eight of the last 10 LHP went Under 5.5 strikeouts (80%) -- even better.

CIN vs LHP
CIN vs LHP

There is not much reason to back Luzardo's Overs this season. His spin rate keeps dropping, per baseballsavant.com, plus his K% and chase rate are below league averages.

Keep fading Luzardo and ride the Reds here as only Sandy Alcantara has had phenomenal success from the Marlins rotation against Cincy.

Zach Thompson and Nick Neidert combined for five strikeouts in three starts and Elieser Hernandez had six Ks in 4.2 IP versus the Reds.

I like Luzardo's Under once again and will have to ride his trend here and what Cincy has done versus LHP. I would play the 4.5 for +100 or better at a half-unit (0.5u).

Pick: Jesus Luzardo Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)

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Jordan Montgomery O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Athletics

This line is not out yet but I am hoping to get a 6.5 strikeout number, if not, for a good price I would play the 5.5.

For everyone's purpose, I will cap this at 5.5, but update on Twitter with the play.

The Oakland Athletics cooled the New York Yankees off yesterday, finally breaking the Yanks' winning streak at 13 games. As New York tries to put together a new winning streak, they toss Jordan Montgomery to the mound.

It's worth noting that the A's are another solid team against LHP. I didn't trust my gut and bet Nestor Cortes Under 4.5 Ks yesterday, and he finished with four, so today I will trust it on Montgomery.

Seven of the last 10 LHP have gone Under 5.5 strikeouts against Oakland and nine of the past 10 Under 6.5 Ks, per statmuse.

LHP vs OAK
LHP vs OAK

Montgomery has posted a tough stretch of starts in August. He started with a pesky Marlins team before starting versus the Red Sox and Braves. Now he faces the Athletics during their AL Wild Card chase.

Oakland is 3.5 games back of Boston for the final wild-card spot. Yesterday's win over New York was a solid starting point to try and turn things around since the A's are 3-7 SU in the last 10.

While Oakland is not hitting the best in the past week, they can make contact with Montgomery.

The Yankees' 28-year-old LHP owns a 3.07 ERA in August's three starts, along with a .212 OBA and 13 strikeouts to seven walks in 14.2 innings pitched.

Montgomery has gone Under 5.5 strikeouts in his last three road starts and three of the past four games overall. His lone Over was six strikeouts against Boston.

On the road in general this season, Montgomery went Under 5.5 strikeouts in 9-of-13 (69%) and Under 6.5 strikeouts in 11-of-13 (84.6%).

Away from New York, Montgomery owns a 3.97 ERA, .243 OBA and 0.95 strikeouts per inning. All of those are his worst splits, besides his day start ERA is 5.20 and this will be primetime and the final game of the day/evening.

He lasted 5.1 innings and struck out six against Oakland (6/20) two months ago. In that meeting, Montgomery only struck two out the first time through the order and four the second time through.

Montgomery's numbers are actually worse the first time through the order, which is always good for an Under in a competitive game. Ride the Under 5.5 or 6.5 strikeouts, whichever number you can find.

I will update on Twitter if I find a O/U 6.5 or PointsBet throws us one.

Pick: Jordan Montgomery Under 6.5 or 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)

Ranger Suarez O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Diamondbacks

This will be Ranger Suarez's second meeting as a starter for Philly versus Arizona.

The previous came two starts ago (8/18). Suarez finished with 4.2 innings pitched, 86 pitches and two strikeouts compared to eight hits, three earned runs and four walks.

Suarez will start his sixth game of the season for the Phillies. As a starter, he has pitched 21.1 innings and recorded 18 strikeouts to 11 walks and five earned runs for a 2.11 ERA and .224 OBA.

Those are pretty solid numbers going up against Arizona, who has 70 strikeouts in the last seven games.

Although those 70 Ks are the most of any team over the past seven days -- Suarez just hit this for the first time in his previous start.

As a starter, Suarez is 4-1 to the Under 5.5 strikeouts and 4.5 strikeouts.

He totaled four or fewer in four straight starts before putting up seven on the strikeout-prone Tampa Bay Rays. His previous start was also the first game he went 5.0 innings or longer, lasting a season-high 6.2 innings and 99 pitches in a no-decision.

NBC's model projects Suarez to record 4.1 strikeouts in 4.1 innings against the Diamondbacks, hitting the Under.

Ranger Suarez
Ranger Suarez

Every time Suarez has gone below 5.0 innings, he has hit the Under. As a relief pitcher before August, he failed to strikeout out more than four in every game.

Suarez owns a below-average chase rate and whiff % for the season and we've seen him come back down to Earth with wxOBA as the starter.

Arizona has held the last six of the last 10 starting LHP Under 5.5 strikeouts, per statmuse. The DBacks faced 10 LHP in August and only three made it beyond 5.0 innings pitched.

LHP vs ARZ
LHP vs ARZ

Believe it or not, when the LHP is at home (like Suarez), welcoming the visiting DBacks, seven of the last nine starting pitchers went Under 5.5 strikeouts (77.8%). That is a positive sign with Arizona on the road to meet Suarez.

I think this is a good spot to fade Suarez after career-highs and hope he does not go back-to-back six strikeout games for the first time all season.

I would play this down to 4.5 for +100 or better and a half-unit (0.5u). I prefer paying the juice of the 5.5 if possible but not beyond -160 for this. The 5.5 is a great number to have.

Pick: Ranger Suarez Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)

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