MLB K Props, August 28th: Suarez, Brault

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Steven Brault O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Cardinals

This will mark Steven Brault's third start versus St. Louis in 19 days.

The Pirates LHP lasted a combined 9.0 innings and allowed 10 hits, three earned runs and seven strikeouts to two walks for a 3.00 ERA and .278 OBA.

He is 1-1 to the Over 4.5 strikeouts versus St. Louis and 3-1 to the Under on the season.

St. Louis has a history versus Brault beyond 2021. However, Brault has only started five games because of injury this season. This is not the same pitcher as in the past and St. Louis has noticed.

In 2020, Brault posted a complete game with eight strikeouts and over 110 pitches in a 5-1 win versus the Cardinals -- the only time he went a full 9.0 innings.

Before 2020, Brault went four straight starts Under 4.5 strikeouts versus St. Louis. You would have to go back to his first start as a rookie to see an Over and it was five strikeouts.

Overall, the Cardinals have a collective group of 16 hitters and pitchers who have faced Brault. The squad of batters hit .230 with a .712 OPS and 30 strikeouts to 15 walks in 142 total plate appearances. That's a lot of history.

This season, Brault went Over 4.5 Ks (six) in the first meeting since his complete-game performance against the Cardinals, then Under in the next with one strikeout in 4.0 innings (81 pitches).

That gives him a career 5-3 (62.5%) record to the Under 4.5 Ks against the Cardinals and a 50% hit rate at 1-1 this season.

Lately, St. Louis has held six of the last 10 (60%) starting LHP Under 4.5 strikeouts, including four of the last five (80%), per statmuse.

LHP vs STL
LHP vs STL

When the LHP is at home versus the Cardinals (like Brault tonight), the Under is 5-5 in the last 10.

Brault's only home start was the six strikeout performance against the Cardinals this season. Other than that one game, he has 13.0 innings pitched with seven strikeouts and four walks in three starts.

NBC's model has Brault at 4.6 strikeouts in 5.1 innings pitched and shows a 75% hit rate to the Under thus far.

Brault
Brault

With this contest being a back-to-back versus St. Louis for him and the third facing one another in not even three weeks, I will back Brault's Under.

St. Louis has 43 strikeouts in the last six games, the second-lowest total of teams that have played six games in the past week. The 43 Ks are tied for the fifth-fewest total strikeouts in the last seven days.

Pick: Steven Brault Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

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Jose Suarez O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Padres

The Angels just lost a series to the Orioles 2-1, then lost to the Padres 5-0 last night -- talk about bad.

Los Angeles is in a tough position with the AL MVP but not much else.

Their rotation is withering, and Jose Suarez draws his ninth start of the season, the first against San Diego.

The Padres held seven of the last 10 starting LHP to go Under 4.5 strikeouts, per statmuse.

LHP vs SD
LHP vs SD

Suarez has never pitched against San Diego and with the Padres backs against the wall -- I'm not sure this is a great matchup for Suarez.

Of course, I cannot ignore the fact that San Diego is hitting an MLB worst .159 in the last week (five games) and .176 in the past 15 days (12 games).

Looking over the Padres schedule, I will cut them some slack.

They had series versus the Dodgers, the Rockies at Coors, the Phillies and their tough pitchers, plus a disappointing 1-3 series loss against the Diamondbacks. That kicked a stretch of 3-11 baseball that was not forgivable for season win total Over backers (me).

However, Suarez has allowed six or more hits in four of the last five games and that's what the Padres need. He's also surrendered at least one home run in five of the previous six games and six of his eight starts.

On the season, Suarez has gone Under 4.5 strikeouts in six of his eight starts (75%) with Overs against the Rangers and Yankees -- both on the road. He is 4-0 to the Under at home as a starter and 2-2 on the road.

Suarez became a starter in July, so everything below is how he has performed this season in the starting rotation, per NBC's model.

Suarez
Suarez

Oddly, Suarez has a far worse ERA at home (5.68) compared to on the road (3.38), plus a .280 OBA versus .220.

His numbers get worse at night compared to day starts as well and this will be the nightcap of the MLB schedule along with the Dodgers and Rockies.

Since becoming a starter, Suarez posted 5.82 ERA in July and lowered it to 5.40 ERA in August with fewer than one strikeout per inning.

Those numbers are worth fading as the Padres have a great chance to emerge from their slump in this series against the Angels -- we already saw Joe Musgrove go a complete 9.0 innings last night.

Let's roll with Suarez Under five strikeouts to end our night.

Pick: Jose Suarez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

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