MLB K Props, August 25th: Josiah Gray vs Miami

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Josiah Gray O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Marlins

Today's slate is not the greatest, but of all K props, this is my favorite play and one that NBC's player projection model favors as well.

This will be Josiah Gray's lucky No. 7 start of his rookie year. The 23-year-old stud has established his fastball and is continually working on his secondary pitches, the curve and slider.

He has come a long way with each start and I have been watching from the sidelines, waiting for a time to hit his O/U -- Tonight is the night.

NBC's model projects Gray to record 6.5 strikeouts in 6.1 innings versus the Marlins.

NBC model
NBC model

I think both of those predictions are on the money as he has hit 6.0 innings in two straight starts and six or more strikeouts in two of the past three.

Game log
Game log

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Gray has hit Over 5.5 Ks in four out of six starts (66.7%) and his only road game as a rookie.

Gray hit rate
Gray hit rate

Gray visited Atlanta and racked up a career-high 10 strikeouts to four hits, two walks and one earned run.

The Marlins and their hitters have never faced Gray and that will be an advantage for him on the road.

Over the last six games, Miami has the fifth-most strikeouts with 61 Ks (10.1 per game) and a .223 batting average (22nd). The Marlins have 16 walks (T-22nd) in the same span and a league-worst .592 OPS.

Looking over what the past RHP have done versus the Marlins -- I feel comfortable backing Gray here.

In the last 14 days, Miami faced 10 RHP. Six of those 10 RHP went Over 5.5 strikeouts (60%). One RHP hit five strikeouts, so at least seven had five Ks, per statmuse.

RHP vs MIA
RHP vs MIA

In the previous five games versus RHP, the Marlins allowed four to hit Over 5.5 strikeouts, with the lone Under getting hooked at five Ks.

Six of the last 10 overall starting pitchers to face Miami has hit the Over 5.5 Ks (60%) and four of the last six visiting Miami -- which is a positive sign for Gray.

He went 4.0 innings each in his first two starts, 5.0 innings each in the next two and 6.0 innings each in the last two -- looks like 7.0 innings is up next.

The last nine RHP against Miami have gone at least 5.1 innings pitched. Seven went 6.0 innings or more with 6.0 innings reached in five straight and six of the past seven.

Gray has yet to reach 90 pitches but hit 87 apiece in his last starts, marking a season and career-high.

Washington could loosen the leash a bit against Miami after Erick Fedde went for a career-high 10 strikeouts last night in 6.1 innings versus the Fins.

Ride the RHP wave against the Marlins and back the 23-year-old Josiah Gray to hit six or more strikeouts as he should see 5.0-plus innings of work.

I might add the Over 16.5 outs prop to my card today (available elsewhere) -- but we shall see. Follow @Vmoneysports on Twitter for the update or more plays when lineups are released.

Pick: Josiah Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)

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