MLB K Props, August 24th: Heaney, Luzardo

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ANDREW HEANEY O/U 6.5 STRIKEOUTS VS. BRAVES

Since being acquired by the Yankees, Andrew Heaney has a 6.55 ERA, .210 OBA over four starts.

In that span, Heaney has 22 strikeouts in 22.0 innings and 16 hits to 17 earned runs.

However, the worst stat is his home runs. Heaney has allowed nine home runs in four starts and all have come at Yankee Stadium. This matchup will be his first road start with New York.

On the year, Heaney has a 5.23 ERA on the road along with a .240 OBA in nine games.

NBC's model projects Heaney at 6.8 strikeouts in 6.2 innings against Atlanta.

Heaney is 5-of-7 (71%) to the Under over his last seven road starts to the 6.5 prop and 3-1 to the Under (75%) in the last four for New York.

Heaney away 2
Heaney away 2

Since June 1st, Heaney has only played in three different ballparks on the road beside Yankee stadium.

Heaney pitched 13 games since June 1st, so yes, that means 10 starts were home games.

I am worried about how he might perform and based on how LHP fares against the Braves -- I have to back the Under two consecutive times on Heaney.

Per statmuse, the previous 19 LHP went Under 6.5 and 5.5 strikeouts versus the Braves -- All 19.

The last eight LHP that visited Atlanta has stayed Under 5.5 and 6.5 strikeouts.

LHP vs ATL
LHP vs ATL

The only Braves hitters Heaney has faced more than three times are Jorge Soler and Guillermo Heredia.

Heaney owns both Atlanta hitters through 26 at-bats with nine combined strikeouts. If those two can hold it together, I like the chances the Under 6.5 strikeouts cash.

I would play the Under 6.5 or the Under 5.5 strikeouts for +100 or better if that is the only available prop.

Pick: Andrew Heaney Under 6.5 Strikeouts (1u)

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JESUS LUZARDO O/U 5.5 STRIKEOUTS VS. NATIONALS

Since being traded to Miami, Jesus Luzardo's ERA sits at 9.68 with a .309 OBA over four starts.

Luzardo has lasted 17.2 innings in those four starts with 17 strikeouts to 16 walks and 19 earned runs.

We hit on three straight Luzardo props and try to make it four today.

Opposing starting pitchers have struggled versus Washington, but specifically LHP.

Going over the LHP list versus the Nationals (see below), they struggle mightily to hit five or six strikeouts.

Since the All-Star break, 12 of the last 13 LHP went Under 5.5 strikeouts (92.3%) and 11 of 13 Under 4.5 Ks (84.6%), per statmuse.

LHP vs WSH
LHP vs WSH

Luzardo has a home ERA of 6.94 and OBA of .280, terrible numbers over seven starts and 11 appearances.

NBC's model projects Luzardo at 4.7 strikeouts in 5.0 innings.

Luzardo has made it 5.0 innings twice in the last four starts, coming against the Cubs and Mets. He failed to make it 5.0 innings against the Braves and Rockies and I expect that to happen here versus the Nationals.

He is 3-1 (75%) to the Under 5.5 strikeouts since being traded and 2-2 to the 4.5 number (50%).

As a starter, Luzardo is 5-5 (50%) to the Under 5.5 strikeouts on the year and 6-4 to the Over 4.5 Ks (60%).

Luzardo 2
Luzardo 2

The Nationals had a day off on Monday to get right entering this contest.

They are one of the hottest offenses in baseball and rank first, second or third in batting average, strikeouts, walks, OPS, OBP and SLG.

Washington is hitting .297 over the last five games with a .896 OPS, plus 33 runs scored and 49 hits to 26 walks and 37 strikeouts.

The Nats have the fewest strikeouts (37) over the past week and the third-most walks (26). Washington averages 5.2 walks and 7.4 strikeouts per game in the last five, promising numbers versus Luzardo.

Luzardo should struggle with the Washington lineup, so play the Under 5.5 strikeouts or grab the 4.5 for +100 or better if that is the only available play.

Pick: Jesus Luzardo Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)

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