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Houston Astros (vs. Boston Red Sox - SP Martin Perez)
The highest over-under on tonight’s slate belongs to the Boston Red Sox vs. the Houston Astros. The Houston Astros are currently favored at -121 with a 10 O/U courtesy of Pointsbet.com. Both teams have been hitting the ball extremely well as of late. The Boston Red Sox will be sending Martin Perez to the mound while the Astros are sending Framber Valdez. Boston’s SP Perez has a 4.03 home ERA and allows most of his damage to opposing right-handed batters. Perez has one game start against the Astros this season. He lasted 7.2 innings allowing only six hits, and no earned runs while striking out four batters. Here’s the catch, this game was in his last start on June 3rd just five days ago. Baseball is a sport of muscle memory. Batters who face the same pitcher two times in one week have significant advantages, talented hitters are able to adjust. The Houston Astros will not allow Perez the same dominant performance that he had in their last match-up. I expect Houston to come out swinging in Fenway. Remember, the Green Monster is tall but it’s much closer to home plate compared to other stadiums’ left field fences. Against a left-handed pitcher, this provides an advantage for right-handed power meaning normal pop-ups often turn into home runs because of the Green Monster. I expect the Astros to hit multiple home runs against Boston’s Martin Perez tonight. Boston’s bullpen has struggled mightily at times throughout the season, the Houston Astros could be looking at 7+ runs if they are able to send Martin Perez towards the dugout sooner rather than later.
Bargains: Myles Straw
Cincinnati Reds (vs. Milwaukee Brewers - SP Adrian Houser)
The Cincinnati Reds have a great match-up tonight against Adrian Houser of the Milwaukee Brewers. Cincinnati’s Tyler Naquin, Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, and Nick Castellanos are batting a combined 19 for 42 with nine total home runs against Houser. Winker alone is batting .615 in 13 at-bats against Houser with five home runs. This might be one of the most impressive BvP advantages that I’ve ever seen. Houser has done nothing to impress me over his last three starts. In the month of May, Houser allowed five total home runs. Cincinnati last saw Houser on May 21, 2021, when they tagged him for six earned runs off three home runs over 4.0 IP. The Cincinnati Reds are on a four-game winning streak after sweeping the St. Louis Cardinals in St. Louis. The Reds have 49 total home runs at home while batting .265 as a team. On such a large MLB slate it’s hard to say which teams will have the highest ownership percentage, I believe Cincinnati could go under the radar despite such impressive indications. For now, I will categorize them as a GPP play but there is a real possibility that Cincinnati could be a highly rostered stack, even on a big 15-game slate.
Bargains: Tucker Barnhart
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1B Yandy Diaz
SS Niko Goodrum
OF Eric Haase
OF Myles Straw