MLB DFS Stacks: Tuesday, 6/22

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SLATE NOTES:

Paying up for pitchers tonight is seemingly unavoidable. This could make lineup construction difficult if you cannot find an affordable stack to pair with top pitchers like Gerrit Cole and Lucas Giolito. The NBC Sports Edge MLB DFS optimizer has high projections for affordable players including; Houston’s Tony Kemp, and Michael Brantley as well as Washington’s Kyle Schwarber. Other cheap options that are in our optimal cash lineup include Max Stassi and Raimel Tapia. Ty France comes in as the cheapest option in our optimal lineup at a salary of $2,900 on DraftKings. He’s projected for 8.9 FP. France has a salary of $3,500 on FanDuel and $19 on YahooFantasy. Finding a four-man stack to pair with these elite pitchers will be tough tonight, but let’s see what we can figure out. First off, let’s check out the two games with the highest over-under for tonight, the Houston Astros vs. the Baltimore Orioles & the Oakland A’s vs. the Texas Rangers.

CASH STACKS

Oakland A’s (vs. Texas Rangers - SP Taylor Hearn)

The A’s will be facing Taylor Hearn. Hearn has a 3.45 home ERA. He’s allowing right-handed batters to hit .304 while left-handed batters are only batting .196. Seven of Hearn’s eight allowed home runs are against right-handed batters. It is clear that if you are going to invest in the Oakland A’s tonight, right-handed batters are where you’re going to want to look. Hearn has yet to face Oakland this season but I am fully expecting Oakland’s power right-handed batters to exceed value on DraftKings, FanDuel, and YahooFantasy.

Top plays: Sean Murphy, Mark Canha, & Matt Chapman

Value: Jed Lowrie & Elvis Andrus

Houston Astros (vs. Baltimore Orioles - SP Jorge Lopez)

The Houston Astros are expected to be a very popular stack tonight. Even with rain in Baltimore last night, roughly 20 to 25% of the daily fantasy community was willing to take a risk on these Houston Astros. Why take this risk? Because the Houston Astros have been on fire as of late, with favorable matchup after the favorable matchup. Tonight they face Jorge Lopez. Lopez has a 6.16 ERA at home. Lopez has allowed relatively even home runs numbers to lefties and righties but right-handed batters are hitting .291 in 148 at-bats compared to lefties hitting just .250 in 108 at-bats. Lopez has struggled mightily over his last two starts allowing 10 earned runs off 15 hits over 9.0 IP. Having the guts to invest in Jorge Lopez could be beneficial as I expect the Houston Astros to be upwards of 25 to 30% for almost all DFS formats. Lopez has high splits at home, on the road, in day games, and in night games, righties are hitting him as well as lefties. There’s not much going against Houston tonight. For cash lineups, the Houston Astros are as safe as it gets. The Astros are currently favored by -186 with a slate high O/U of 9.5 courtesy of Pointsbet.com.

Top Plays: Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel, & Michael Brantley

Value: Myles Straw, Martin Maldonado

GPP STACKS

San Diego Padres (vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - SP Clayton Kershaw)

The San Diego Padres will be facing off against Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. Manny Machado homered in last night’s game against SP Urias. Machado has one of the highest hard-hit ball rates in the league. Over his last ten games, he’s averaged 12.5 fantasy points per game with a .429 on-base percentage. Machado went 3 for 4 last night with a home run and three RBI and a stolen base. Kershaw has yet to face the San Diego Padres this season and comes into this matchup red hot totaling 22.1, 33.1, and 16.1 DraftKings points over his last three respectively. Over his career, Kershaw has seen the San Diego Padres in 147 at-bats. Throughout these at-bats, Trent Grisham hit three for seven with a home run and a stolen base, Fernando Tatis is batting five for 14 with two home runs, Manny Machado is batting seven for 24 with two home runs, and lastly, Eric Hosmer is batting 9 for 30 with one home run and four RBI. The rest of the San Diego Padres exhibit relatively poor stats including Cronenworth who's batting 1 for 8 against Kershaw and Tommy Pham who is batting 0 for 9 with three strikeouts against Los Angeles's starting lefty in Kershaw. In Clayton Kershaw’s last start against the Philadelphia Phillies, he lasted six innings allowing eight hits and two earned runs off of one home run but struck out nine batters. Kershaw has struck out nine batters in each of his last three starts. This bodes well for how I see Kershaw progressing throughout the season. The Philadelphia Phillies, the Texas Rangers, and the Atlanta Braves are the three teams that he faced over his last three games. These three teams rank 9th, 10th, and 11th highest in the league in terms of team strikeouts. The San Diego Padres are ranked 19th in the major leagues with only 626 strikeouts on the season. The Padres are also batting .236 as a team with a .710 OPS. Kershaw is allowing right-handed batters to a .251 batting average. Kershaw has only allowed home runs to opposing righties. Left-handed batters are only batting .143 against Kershaw and have yet to hit a triple or a home run in 91 at-bats against him. It’s clear if you are going to invest in a San Diego Padres stack tonight, right-handed batters are where you’ll want to lean towards. This includes Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. This is the perfect two-man stack on an MLB main slate that has tons of great pitching. Clayton Kershaw is due for regression especially against a San Diego team that has won five in a row, totaling 30 runs over this win streak. The San Diego Padres will be my top GPP stack of the night. Pointsbet.com has the Padres as a pick em’ at -110 with a 7.5 over-under.

Top plays: Manny Machado & Fernando Tatis Jr.

Value: Victor Caratini, & Tommy Pham

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BARGAIN BIN

P Zac Gallen

C Max Stassi

1B Ty France

2B Tony Kemp

SS J.P. Crawford

3B Robel Garcia

OF Myles Straw

OF Kyle Schwarber

OF Michael Brantley

Make sure to check me out on the NBC Sports Edge Instagram tomorrow from 5:00 pm - 7:00 pm ET. I’ll be discussing all things daily fantasy for a one-game NBA Showdown slate as well as a seven-game MLB main slate.