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This article outlines the best daily fantasy MLB plays of the day at every position. We take a comprehensive look to uncover these core recommendations, factoring respective salaries into the analysis.
Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.
Like yesterday, rain is lingering around quite a few venues. No games are doomed for postponement at this early hour.
Top Play: Gerrit Cole – Yankees (at Twins)
This is not a deep pitching slate which will put a lot of pressure on Cole in GPPs. He comfortably projects for at least six innings and eight strikeouts against a mid-tier Twins offense. Only Lance Lynn is expected to match him in longevity, and nobody is positioned to come close in strikeout total.
Pivot: Casey Mize – Tigers (vs Mariners)
The Mariners have one of the worst offenses – they’re 14 percent below average with a 26.3 percent strikeout rate. Mize is on a hot run, finishing six or more innings in six of his last seven outings. He’s also held opponents to three or fewer runs in all of those starts. He projects for over five innings and five strikeouts tonight.
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Gutierrez is making his third big league start. He’s struggled to induce whiffs in his first two starts while magically avoiding major damage. Something has to give sooner or late – either he’ll find more strikeouts or else his luck will fail. The entire Brewers stack is of interest with Narvaez rating as the best combination of projection and cost at the catcher position. He has a one-in-five chance to homer at power friendly Great American Ballpark.
Manny Pina is a good value too if he starts in place of Narvaez.
Higashioka has performed poorly of late. The emerging narrative is that he’s been overexposed and scouting reports caught up. I disagree. Deep slumps are simply part of his home run or bust hitting approach, especially because he only has league average power. Around one in 10 of his batted balls are expected to be home runs, but he doesn’t make contact all that often. This season, he’s improved his plate discipline which is probably a good thing overall. It does mean only about 60 percent of his plate appearances end with a batted ball. He’s also pretty helpless against pitchers with high, hard heat.
Fortunately, Dobnak is a ground ball pitcher with modest velocity. His approach feeds right into Higgy’s strengths. And because he’s slumping, hardly anybody is going to be using him.
After an almost predictable double-dinger last night, Alonso once again leads the slate with a two-in-five chance to homer. While Harvey is laughably bad, he’s struggled more with generic sorts of hits rather than home runs. Even so, this is an excellent situation to chase another multi-homer performance.
Pivot: Dan Vogelbach – Brewers (at Gutierrez)
Vogelbach may have a modest .213/.329/.344 batting line, but it’s backed by some exciting peripherals. His plate discipline is well known and perhaps is to his detriment. He has a 6.4 percent swinging strike rate, a high value average launch angle (and fairly tightly distributed), and premium exit velocities. You want him putting the ball in play, not walking or falling behind in counts unnecessarily. It’s frustrating that he underperforms his components, but this is a good situation for him at a friendly price.
Top Play: Jose Altuve – Astros (at Nate Eovaldi)
This is standard recommendation for Altuve. He’s the likeliest to deliver a hit tonight and thus also has the best chance for a multi-hit game. The matchup against Eovaldi is slightly better than neutral. The Red Sox right-hander consistently works within the strike zone which means Altuve has a shot to end four or five plate appearances with a ball in play.
Odor is a low-ball masher and we know Dobnak likes to work the lower edges of the zone. This is a homer or bust pivot and bargain. He has a one-in-four chance to roll a Yahtzee.
I understand if you prefer somebody with better performance to date. Suarez is hitting a truly miserable .160/.235/.370. The power continues to play with 13 home runs in 243 plate appearances – just under a 40-homer pace. Suarez’s troubles can be traced to a fluky-low line drive rate and a decline in hard contact rate. His barrel rate has remained consistent so I’m inclined to write all of this off as a 10th percentile outcome. He matches up well against a ground ball pitcher like Anderson.
Pivot: Kyle Seager – Mariners (at Mize)
While I listed Mize as a pivot, I do worry he could wind up as a popular play. DFSers are overly sensitive to streaks after all. His ground ball tendencies mean Seager has an elevated chance to homer due to his own propensity for fly ball contact. It’s a little worse than a one-in-four chance.
Top Play: Francisco Lindor – Mets (at Harvey)
Lindor has performed normally of late. Over the last month, he’s hitting a decent .262/.313/.456 with a strong average exit velocity. While his pop doesn’t play well at CitiField, it’s more than sufficient for a bandbox like Camden Yards. Harvey is established as one of the most exploitable pitchers in the league.
Pivot: Willy Adames – Brewers (at Gutierrez)
Adames’ extreme fly ball tendencies are perfect for a visit to Great American Ballpark. This isn’t a Higashioka situation either where it’s just a volume of normally struck fly balls. Adames can also put a serious charge in the ball. He bounces between second, fifth, and seventh in the lineup. At the top of the order, he qualifies as a top play candidate.
Great American Ballpark figures to feature prominently in this slate. The Brewers top outfielders are multi-homer and multi-hit threats against a below average starting pitcher and still-struggling bullpen. One downside to the Brewers stack is that Tejay Antone and Lucas Sims are both available for the Reds tonight. They’re liable to sponge three or more innings together if the game is close. On the other side of the aisle, Castellanos is bizarrely cheap and has a decent contact profile for facing Anderson.
Pollock is more reasonably priced than he was a week ago, but he’s still discounted for a relatively favorable matchup. He’s more likely to bat fifth against left-handed pitchers which also boosts his value. Pollock rates as the best combination of quality projection and low price in the outfield. Larnach, by comparison, is a pure ambush play. He skews slightly to ground ball contact which could help him handle high heat. If Cole is in a mood to challenge him with fastballs, Larnach comes away with a pretty good shot at homering – something like a one-in-five chance.
Also Consider: Ronald Acuna, Ohtani, Jesse Winker, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Michael Brantley, Alex Verdugo, Justin Upton, Jackie Bradley Jr., Bryan Reynolds, Jorge Soler, Hunter Dozier, Andrew Benintendi