This article outlines the best daily fantasy MLB plays of the day at every position. We take a comprehensive look to uncover these core recommendations, factoring respective salaries into the analysis.
Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.
Marlins at Braves – Pitchers don’t come more generic than Jose Urena. The Braves are always a tough opponent – they have the top offense against right-handed pitching. By comparison, Bryse Wilson is volatile. He’s especially prone to meltdowns. Three of his four appearances this season have been two or fewer innings.
DBacks vs Jordan Lyles – Recently, the Rangers have opted to let Lyles fight through his starts. They’ve been rewarded with tolerable if unimpressive results. He’s still incapable of inducing whiffs (5.7% SwStr% and 5.26 K/9). He’s homer prone (1.81 HR/9) but otherwise decent at avoiding hard contact. The Arizona offense is below average against right-handed pitching.
Rays at Seth Lugo – The Lugo-as-starting-pitcher experiment has failed. His fastball is down 2.5 mph since leaving the bullpen, negatively affecting his offspeed stuff. It culminated in a 1.2 inning, four home run trouncing at the hands of the Phillies last week. The Rays have a comparably difficult to navigate offense. Expect to see at least one of Michael Wacha, Erasmo Ramirez, or Corey Oswalt pitching bulk innings.
A bonus to using the Rays stack is it should rate as a savvy pivot. Enough people will expect five-plus innings with Lugo’s reliever-rates. Some daily projection systems consider him a top three pitcher tonight although our Rotoworld Player Projections have him well outside the top 12.
Valdez is a high-ceiling, volatile play. We can see the evidence in his last three outings which range from -4.7 points to 35.3 points on DraftKings. He’s a ground ball pitcher with filthy stuff. Most pitchers with 60 percent ground ball rates struggle to record strikeouts. Valdez comfortably sits above a strikeout per inning. All but two of his appearances have lasted six or more innings. The Mariners are moderately strikeout prone and have a bottom-three offense against left-handed pitchers.
There’s never much nuance to a Perez recommendation. He leads catchers with around a one-in-five chance to homer. He’s also hitting for a high batting average through 131 plate appearances, but that screams fluke. A right-handed fly ball hitter, he matches up well against Gomber; a southpaw with a modest ground ball tendency. Perez appears in 35 of the top 50 roster per our Rotoworld Lineup Optimizer.
Walker is appropriately priced on Yahoo and a bargain on the other platforms. He offers an opportunity to receive a top performance while pay for a mid-tier player. His Statcast data suggests he’s been moderately unlucky in the power department while hitting .280/.343/.477 on the season. Any DBacks stack should include their potent third hitter.
Lowe leads second basemen in projected home runs – roughly a one-in-four chance. An expensive price, uneven recent performance, and apparently difficult matchup (it’s not) should keep his rostership low key. As an extreme fly ball hitter against a ground ball pitcher, this is a very juicy situation for Lowe. Don’t stack Rays without him.
Although Rendon is the top third baseman available, Donaldson offers comparable production at a discount. After a slow start, he’s posting very typical numbers including a .243/.380/.514 batting line and six home runs in 92 plate appearances. He has a reputation as a lefty-masher which might add to his rostership tonight. However, a closer examination reveals he’s only modestly better against left-handed pitchers. In any event, facing a volatile, young southpaw offers an opportunity.
Until we find out if there are any interesting quirks in today’s lineups, it doesn’t look like we’ll be getting value out of the shortstop position. DeJong offers the nearest thing, but it’s not exactly a must-play situation. He’s a mid-tier hitter set to face a mid-tier pitcher. Singer is a ground ball pitcher while DeJong tends to lift the ball. That helps his odds for a home run. He’s ice cold over the last week which should scare away the weak-willed DFSers. I don’t see any evidence of an actual problem – he’s always inconsistent.
Among top outfielders, Springer easily offers the most bang for your buck. There’s actually an entire three-man Astros outfield stack with good value for the money. Springer is particularly hot lately with two multi-homer games this month. The Astros benched him yesterday because they had data indicating he was at increased risk of an injury. Newsome is homer prone and makes short starts. The Mariners bullpen is highly exploitable.
Smith may be opening the game, but it’s Taylor Clarke and a mostly right-handed Diamondbacks bullpen which will handle the final six to eight frames. Gallo will spend most of the game with the platoon advantage against below average pitchers. Aside from a few elite hitters, nobody is likelier to deliver a multi-homer performance.