I’m excited to be back this season and will be providing some of my favorite daily fantasy baseball plays each Tuesday.
Tonight we have a 13-game MLB slate. We don’t have a lot of safe pitching options on this slate, which makes it more of a tournament-focused slate for me.
With Patrick Corbin pitching at Coors Field, I’m leaning on Maeda to be my stud pitcher on this slate. It’s going to be cold in Chicago, which should benefit Maeda more than the hitters. Maeda has a 3.76 xFIP with a 27.7% strikeout rate and a 14.8% swinging strike rate on the season. He’s attacking right-handed hitters with sliders and using his changeup/curveball combo to keep left-handed hitters off-balanced. I think he has a lot of upside in this matchup, as there are five hitters with at least a 20% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in this Cubs lineup.
With the Yankees playing a long game on Monday night, they've decided to start German tonight. This certainly helps with some of the pitching options on this slate. The Angels don't strike out a lot, but they have a .185 ISO with a .309 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Since the start of 2018, German has a 4.11 xFIP with a 27.8% strikeout rate. He's been really tough on righties, and his biggest struggles have come with power lefties. Calhoun and Bour worry me a little, but not enough to fade German on this slate.
Welington Castillo @ Baltimore Orioles
After a really slow start to the season, Castillo has at least one hit in three of the last four games. It's going to be a common theme in this article today, but I like the White Sox against Andrew Cashner, who has a .382 wOBA with a .192 ISO against right-handed hitters since the start of the 2018 season. He also has a very low 11.7% strikeout rate against righties in that span. Castillo is hitting fifth and he's a nice discount from the top-tier of options on this slate.
Yonder Alonso @ Baltimore Orioles
Andrew Cashner has a 39.9% fly ball rate with a 34.3% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters since the start of the 2018 season. In five starts this season, he has a 45.5% fly ball rate with a 40.9% hard-hit rate against lefties. Alonso's advanced numbers are strong, so there is some serious positive regression coming for him. He has a 91.5 average exit velocity with a .430 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching. I'll be loading up on the White Sox again tonight, and don't forget that Baltimore bullpen has struggled badly this season.
Eric Sogard vs. San Francisco Giants
If I'm not paying up for Altuve, Merrifield, or Kendrick, I'm going to be saving some salary at second base. Sogard has been hitting leadoff for the Blue Jays and has been really good since being called up. He has a .403 wOBA with a 9.5% strikeout rate in his 21 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. Samardzija has benefited from pitching in San Francisco but gets a big ballpark downgrade on this slate. With his low soft contact rate, I actually like the idea of taking some cheap bats against him.
Matt Carpenter vs. Milwaukee Brewers
I like Yoan Moncada a lot too, but I didn't want to write up another bat from the White Sox. Zach Davies struggled with left-handed hitters all of last season and has continued those struggles so far this season. Since the start of 2018, he has a .343 wOBA with a 35.8% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters. He also has a 16.3% strikeout rate with a 12.4% walk rate. Carpenter has struggled a little to start the season, but he's too good of a hitter not to continue to trust in spots like this. He has a .268 ISO with a .388 wOBA against righties since the start of 2018.
Gleyber Torres @ Los Angeles Angels
I tend to pick on Chris Stratton when he's pitching, as and he's benefited from pitching in good ballparks. He has a 90.3 average exit velocity with a 45.4% hard-hit rate against right-handed hitters since the start of 2018. The Yankees are dealing with some injuries right now, but they still have some power in this lineup. Torres has a .222 ISO with a 47.1% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. His average air distance and exit velocity are strong against righties as well. Stratton's low strikeout rate should help Torres in this matchup.
Christian Yelich @ St. Louis Cardinals
Yelich is my favorite play on this slate, and I will be paying up to get him into as many lineups as I can. With the cheaper pitching options available, it shouldn't be hard to fit him into your lineups. Ponce de Leon pitched well with the Cardinals in four starts last season, but in those starts and his 18 AAA starts, he showed a lot of fly ball tendencies. With Yelich being a ground ball hitter, he performs well against fly ball pitchers. Incredibly, Yelich has a .508 ISO with a .550 wOBA and a massive 61.7% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching so far this season.
Steven Duggar @ Toronto Blue Jays
Duggar continues to hit leadoff for the Giants against right-handed pitching, which makes him a good value play on this slate. In 43 plate appearances against left-handed hitters, Thornton has a .421 wOBA with a .385 ISO. The hard-hit rate and exit velocity stand out for me when digging into Thornton. Duggar's biggest issue is his strikeout rate, but I'm willing to take the chance on him at his price across the industry.