MLB DFS Plays: Sunday 6/27

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This article outlines the best daily fantasy MLB plays of the day at every position. We take a comprehensive look to uncover these core recommendations, factoring respective salaries into the analysis.

Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.

Detroit and St. Louis are at some risk today. Restrict your use of Astros and Cardinals stacks, Tarik Skubal, Jake Odorizzi, and Johan Oviedo to GPPs.

PITCHER

Top Play: Max Scherzer – Nationals (at Marlins)

Three aces infest this slate headlined by Scherzer. He faces the softest opponent – a below average Marlins lineup with an over-26 percent strikeout rate. Scherzer projects for just under seven innings with nearly a 50/50 shot at double-digit strikeouts. The premium alternatives, Gerrit Cole in Boston and Zack Wheeler at the Mets, must deal with semi-difficult matchups.

Pivot: Brady Singer – Royals (at Rangers)

Although at times infuriating for DFS managers, Singer consistently projects to outperform his price tag. It’s once again the case against a middling Rangers offense. They’re 10 percent below average with the bats and playing even worse over the last month. They also strike out around one quarter of the time. Singer is a ground ball pitcher with over a strikeout per inning. He’s had some issues preventing singles, leading to a habit for short outings. He’s failed to complete four innings in six of 15 starts. If he finishes the fourth, he’s usually good to pitch into the sixth – eight of 15 starts lasted over five frames. Certain matchups in this one – particularly against Joey Gallo – are dangerous for Singer.

Also Consider: Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler, Sandy Alcantara, Eric Lauer, Jake Odorizzi, Ross Stripling

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CATCHER

Top Play: Salvador Perez – Royals (at Jordan Lyles)

Perez checks in at just shy of a one-in-three shot for a home run. Only Gary Sanchez has comparable power potential among catchers. Sadly, El Kraken doesn’t start when Cole pitches. Perez isn’t an especially sharp value, but nobody else in the slate projects to come close to his median and upside projections. Lyles has allowed 1.86 HR/9 this season in addition to a luck neutral 5.47 ERA.

Pivot: Ryan Jeffers – Twins (vs Sam Hentges)

My pick from yesterday stands:

Since his recall in early June, Jeffers is batting .237/.286/.559 with five home runs in 63 plate appearances. While it would be nice if he got his strikeout rate under control – something I think he’ll accomplish long-term – the power output is sufficient to use him against Henges. The Indians southpaw appears to be a prototypical swingman at this stage of his career. He projects to allow over a 5.00 ERA with about 1.50 HR/9.

Jeffers isn’t a lock to start. If he doesn’t play, Ben Rortvedt is an equally sharp pivot.

Also Consider: Omar Narvaez, Kyle Higashioka, Tyler Stephenson, Jacob Stallings

FIRST BASE

Top Play: Freddie Freeman – Braves (at Tyler Mahle)

The Reds will call upon Mahle, a pitcher who struggles mightily at his home stadium. This season, he’s allowed 2.19 HR/9 and a 6.93 ERA at home (0.50 HR/9 and a 2.01 ERA on the road), continuations of career-long trends. Why I usually ignore such splits for sea level players, Great American Ballpark is especially rough for pitchers of Mahle’s profile. Because he has a reputation as a fringe-ace, DFSers are more likely to use him than a Braves stack. Not only does Freeman project as a top first baseman, he could be highly leveraged in GPPs.

Pivot: Ryan Mountcastle – Orioles (at Stripling)

Firm winds are once again blowing out at Sahlen Field. Mountcastle can be looked upon as a sort of discount Nick Castellanos. He has an aggressive approach and enough lift to his swing to possess double-dinger upside. Overall, he has a better than one-in-five chance to homer against Stripling. Although the Jays starter has pitched well lately, he remains homer prone (1.64 HR/9).

Also Consider: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Shohei Ohtani, Rhys Hoskins, Pete Alonso, Carlos Santana, DJ LeMahieu, Luke Voit, Nate Lowe, Trey Mancini, Alex Kirilloff

SECOND BASE

Top Play: Marcus Semien – Blue Jays (vs Jorge Lopez)

In a vacuum, Jose Altuve is a better play for ceiling, floor, and value. I’m factoring in weather risks when choosing Semien. He has a better than one-in-four chance for a big fly against Lopez. The Orioles starter has allowed 1.77 HR/9 and a luck neutral 5.68 ERA. Lopez’s ground ball tendencies maximize Semien’s power potential.

Pivot: Luis Arraez – Twins (vs Hentges)

Arraez regularly rates among the likeliest to deliver multiple hits. Today is no exception. While he’s struggled to hit for average and power against fellow southpaws, he’ll probably only face Hentges twice. That means upwards of three plate appearances against a righty-dominated Indians bullpen. I can’t say I’m enthusiastic about this option. It’s the best of the bargain bin, but you’re better off with Semien, Ozzie Albies, or Jonathan India.

Also Consider: Ozzie Albies, Jonathan India, DJ LeMahieu, Jonathan Schoop

THIRD BASE

Top Play: Eugenio Suarez – Reds (vs Kyle Muller)

Since early June (his last 77 plate appearances), Suarez is batting a more typical .227/.325/.439 with four home runs, two doubles, and 18 RBI. Muller is a wild southpaw with swing-and-miss stuff. He also struggled with home runs in Triple-A and averaged under five innings per start. This is a volatile situation on many levels. Suarez has around a one-in-three chance to homer this afternoon.

Pivot: Gio Urshela – Yankees (at Rodriguez)

Urshela has developed a modest strikeout issue this season. Since Rodriguez is a high strikeout rate pitcher, that’s certainly not ideal. Like Arraez, he’s the best of the value plays rather than a player I’d enthusiastically target. On most days, I’d file Suarez as the pivot.

Also Consider: Jose Ramirez, Josh Donaldson, Wander Franco, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Cavan Biggio, Abraham Toro

SHORTSTOP

Top Play: Trevor Story – Rockies (at Eric Lauer)

Lauer has been dinged for quite a few home runs this season (2.37 HR/9). Story has lowered his launch angle and fly ball rate. It could be a small sample fluke or he might be preparing for a post-Coors Field life as DJ LeMahieu did in 2018. In any event, Story’s launch angle matches well against Lauer’s maximizing the potential for a home run. Few hitters have produced more multi-homer games since Story arrived on the scene. American Family Field (formerly Miller Park) is no Coors Field. It does boost home run output a fair amount.

Pivot: Gleyber Torres – Yankees (at Rodriguez)

Torres remains a fly ball hitter with a bright future. He’s currently working through issues with inconsistent contact. His best swings are reminiscent of his 2019 peak. Unfortunately, he’s all too often making soft contact. His batted profile matches well against Rodriguez. He has sufficient lift and power to chip it over the Green Monster.

Also Consider: Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Wander Franco, Dansby Swanson, Willy Adames

OUTFIELD

Top Plays: Nick Castellanos – Reds (vs Muller)
Ronald Acuna – Braves (at Mahle)
George Springer – Blue Jays (vs Lopez)

The matchups may have changes, but the top plays are unaltered from yesterday. In the minors, Muller had a slight skew to fly ball contact. Castellanos is at his best against this profile. He also has a reputation as a lefty masher – his peripherals show no such platoon split. Still, I doubt the platoon advantage will hurt against someone who didn’t exactly solve Triple-A.

Acuna is, obviously, the likeliest Brave to homer off Mahle. He has around a two-in-five chance to roll Yahtzee. He’s shaking off a lower back strain which could be a reason to avoid overexposing yourself to him in multi-lineup situations. I think I prefer Teoscar Hernandez to Springer this afternoon. The latter slugger is cheaper and also matches up brilliantly against Lopez. A Jays stack should be among the chalkiest plays.

Pivots: Bryan Reynolds – Pirates (at Oviedo)
Tyler O’Neill – Cardinals (vs Max Kranick)

It’s a shame the best values in the entire slate are threatened by storms. Reynolds is a BABIP machine with burgeoning power. Busch Stadium is a difficult venue for power so he’s likelier to provide value with multiple hits rather than home runs. O’Neill has more than enough pop to overcome his home field’s park factors. While Kranick performed decently in the minors, scouting reports suggest it’s due to a wide repertoire of average or worse offerings. Such an approach tends to play well in the minors. However, a pitcher needs a bat-missing offering if they want to thrive in the Majors. O’Neill has one-in-four odds for a home run.

Also Consider: Christian Yelich, Shohei Ohtani, Randy Arozarena, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Nelson Cruz, Lars Nootbar, Kyle Tucker