MLB DFS Plays: Saturday 9/14

Brad Johnson
Rotoworld

This article will outline the best daily fantasy MLB plays of the day at every position. We will take a comprehensive look to uncover these core recommendations, factoring respective salaries into the analysis.

Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.

Editor’s Note: Stay ahead of the competition from wire to wire with rankings, customizable projections, trade evaluator, exclusive columns and more in our Season Pass. And start using optimized lineups with our DFS Toolkit!

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We have an 11-game slate this evening.

PITCHER

Jack FlahertySt. Louis Cardinals (vs Brewers)

In a slate with several excellent pitchers, Flaherty takes the cake. Not only is he the top-projected performer against a Yelich-less Brewers offense, he’s also one of the best dollar-for-dollar values at the position. He’s likely to perform comparably to Jacob deGrom and Mike Clevinger while costing less. Over his last 12 starts, Flaherty has posted an absurd 0.80 ERA with 10.91 K/9 and an average of 6.5 innings per outing. The Brewers had a slightly below average offense before losing Yelich. Now they’re borderline exploitable.

Also Consider: Jacob deGrom, Mike Clevinger, Madison Bumgarner, Dylan Cease (value), Felix Hernandez (value)

CATCHER / FIRST BASE

Daniel MurphyColorado Rockies (vs Eric Lauer)

First basemen carry relatively modest projections tonight – partly because several of the big boppers at the position are in the early slate or have tough matchups. Murphy is set to face a neutral opponent at the most hitter friendly venue. While we usually avoid lefty-on-lefty matchups in DFS, Murphy and Lauer have steep reverse platoon splits this season. In both cases, we’re looking at a small sample. At best, we can conclude that facing Lauer probably isn’t detrimental to Murphy. The Rockies are likely to use him as their cleanup hitter. Multiple hits with run production are likelier than a home run.

Also Consider: Sean Murphy (value), Austin Hedges (value), J.T. Realmuto, Eric Hosmer (value), Pete Alonso

SECOND BASE

Luis Urias – San Diego Padres (at Peter Lambert)

It’s not often you can snag a decent hitter with a bargain basement price at Coors Field. Urias is starting to make critical adjustments at the major league level which should eventually lead to solid-but-unspectacular performance. He’s a ground ball hitter set to face a ground ball pitcher which would normally be a red flag. Lambert allows copious quantities of hard contact and line drives. Urias is very likely to supply multiple hits – hopefully with some run production. Unfortunately, he’ll probably bat eighth in the lineup. Still, this is a good place to save cash without giving up much upside.

Also Consider: Jose Altuve, Greg Garcia, Nick Solak, Ryan McMahon, Garrett Hampson (value), Chad Pinder (value)

THIRD BASE

Nolan Arenado – Colorado Rockies (vs Eric Lauer)

Arenado is one of the top hitters in the slate, and he has the price to match. If you’re looking to save money, Manny Machado has a similar projection at a cheaper price. Arenado is a top play thanks to his reputation as a lefty slayer. This season, he’s batting .315/.420/.617 versus southpaws. That lines up with his career numbers too. As an added bonus, he’s batting .356/.417/.665 at Coors Field. We can expect something on the order of a 1.100 OPS versus Lauer and friends.

Also Consider: Manny Machado (value), Matt Chapman (value), Garcia, Rafael Devers

SHORTSTOP

Trevor Story – Colorado Rockies (vs Eric Lauer)

Once again, Machado is a viable alternative to this Rockies slugger if your platform allows it. Story is the top-projected hitter in the slate. While he’s one of the pricier players available, he’s also an excellent value. Unlike Arenado, Story doesn’t have notable platoon splits. He’s an equal opportunity masher with over a one-in-three chance for a home run. He’s also perhaps the best bet for a multi-homer game.

Also Consider: Machado, Alex Bregman, Marcus Semien, Urias

OUTFIELD

Tommy Pham – Tampa Bay Rays (at Jaime Barria)

Let us escape the tyranny of Coors Field. Many of the outfielders playing there are among the top projections and values. Pham is also extremely attractive as a high floor, high ceiling pick. He’ll face Barria, a fly ball pitcher who has been plagued by home runs (2.30 HR/9). Pham powers up against fly ball pitchers. He’s ordinarily a multi-hit threat due to frequent hard contact at a low angle. However, he turns into a true slugger against pitchers like Barria. He has a one-in-four chance to homer.

Jaylin Davis – San Francisco Giants (vs Robert Dugger)

Davis bats near the bottom of the Giants lineup. He’s also the best dollar-for-dollar value in the slate. Use him to connect expensive Coors Field sluggers with valuable pitchers like Flaherty. He’s a volatile ground ball hitter. His high strikeout rate and frequent wormburners are offset by an elite home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB). In the minors, nearly half his fly balls left the yard. The best players in the majors manage around a 35 percent HR/FB rate. Dugger, at times throughout his minor career, has been a fly ball pitcher. Perhaps Davis will lift a fly ball or two.

Also Consider: Charlie Blackmon, Nick Martini (value), Austin Meadows, Wil Myers, Willie Calhoun, Josh Naylor (value), Mike Trout, Aristides Aquino, Yordan Alvarez, Josh Rojas (value)

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