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Monday, June 14 brings 26 teams in action, including a game at Coors already boasting an 11-run total in nearly 90-degree weather. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for pitchers and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks, Monday, June 14
This has been a tough season for David Peterson, who has made 11 starts for the Mets and lasted only 47 innings. While he has a solid 10.14 strikeouts per nine innings, he has suffered nine home runs and nearly half an extra-base hit per inning. He has been particularly awful over his last three starts, managing to go nine total innings, ceding 12 runs and a trio of longballs.
Focus on the Cubs swinging the stick from the right side of the plate first, with Willson Contreras and Kris Bryant front and center. Javier Baez was a late scratch last night with a sore thumb, and that has cost him four games in the last week. If he is out again, hot-hitting Patrick Wisdom will likely be in the cleanup slot. However, his $25 salary is going to be a tall order, particularly with a Coors Field game on tap. Jake Marisnick, Ian Happ and Anthony Rizzo are solid MLB DFS picks for getting some differentiation.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. LHP Braxton Garrett — 4.2 implied runs
Tonight marks the second start of the season for southpaw Braxton Garrett, who is currently ranked as the Marlins’ seventh-best prospect. Including two appearances last year, he has logged 14.2 innings in the majors. Power has been an issue, as he has allowed six extra-base hits and three home runs, culminating in a 6.14 ERA and 1.70 WHIP against only 13 strikeouts. Garrett projects as a fifth starter or potentially a multi-inning reliever/opener.
The Cardinals have four hitters with ISOs above .220 over the last two-plus seasons. Primary targets are Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, along with leadoff man Tommy Edman. Yadier Molina should be behind the dish and can still get it done. In the event a full five-man stack is the goal, the power upside of Tyler O’Neill or Paul DeJong is the way to go. Allow their position eligibility along with their slot in the batting order to be a guide.
San Francisco Giants vs RHP Matthew Peacock — 4.7 implied runs
Matthew Peacock has struggled mightily this season. While it will be cool in San Francisco tonight with game-time temperatures in the upper-50s, the Giants seem to be nearly back to full health, with only Evan Longoria sidelined from the regular starters.
After debuting out of the bullpen this season, Peacock has now made five successive starts. However, each one seems to be a little worse than the one before. Even giving him the benefit of including his relief appearances, he has totaled 34.1 innings, a 5.24 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and only 6.29 strikeouts per nine innings.
Mike Yastrzemski and Brandon Belt have returned from their respective injuries, and it seems that Brandon Crawford is now getting a turn as the cleanup hitter. This is the trio to target with the platoon advantage, along with LaMonte Wade Jr. or Mike Tauchman. The tiebreaker will go to whichever one is leading off tonight.
Top Target: RHP Lance Lynn vs. Tampa Bay Rays — 3.8 implied runs
DFS Salary: Yahoo $51| FanDuel $11,000 | DraftKings $9,900
Arguably the two best pitchers of the slate are squaring off in Chicago tonight, with Lance Lynn hosting Tyler Glasnow. Lynn ultimately gets the nod, but anyone who prefers Glasnow has a strong case, particularly on FanDuel where he is $200 cheaper and has surpassed six innings in seven of his last nine starts, which puts him in line for the bonus points awarded for quality starts.
DraftKings has an $800 discount for Lynn and Yahoo a 7% discount, which tips the scales in Lynn’s favor. Tonight’s projected lineup for the Rays has a collective 25.1% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers over the last two seasons. While they will have three lefties in the top half of the order, they all strike out above league average.
There has been a lot of handwringing in the DFS world about pitchers suddenly becoming horrible overnight because the league is cracking down on sticky stuff, so for what it is worth, Lynn’s spin rates have been remarkably consistent over the last five seasons. The recent implosions of some aces offer some evidence of their spin rates increasing on key offerings by as much as 10 to 20% over the last three or four seasons. It seems more anecdotal that the talent will dissipate seemingly overnight for the best of the best.
Secondary Option: RHP Adam Wainwright vs. Miami Marlins — 3.7 implied runs
DFS Salary: Yahoo $36| FanDuel $8,000 | DraftKings $8,800
Adam Wainwright is still getting it done with his topnotch curveball. Typically he works deep into games and does not implode on the mound. The top half of the Marlins lineup is league average, while the bottom half is dreadful. Wainwright’s spin rates have been remarkably consistent over the last five seasons. While his strikeout rate is up this year, it is still similar to 2019 and below 2018.
Monday’s Yahoo salary make him an excellent second pitcher, and for those loading up on hitters playing in Denver, then Wainwright could be the main pitcher. Just be cognizant that his best attribute is not getting destroyed and hanging around long enough to qualify for the win. This means there is little in the way of fantasy upside unless everything goes his way.
Wild Card: RHP Brad Keller vs. Detroit Tigers — 4.2 implied runs
DFS Salary: Yahoo $31 | FanDuel $7,500 | DraftKings $6,400
Brad Keller is best known for limiting power, baserunners and not getting many strikeouts. However, things have been turned on their head this season, as his strikeouts have increased at the cost of more extra base hits. He is using his fastball more than last year, and it also is matching his career high of 93.9 mph on average. In turn he has gone away from his slider and added a few more curveballs. It is going to be a scorcher today in Kauffman Stadium with game-time temperatures in the mid-90s. This play is more about price and opponent, with the Tigers not being a particularly terrifying offense.
Final Thoughts for the Monday, June 14 MLB DFS Slate
There is quite a bit of disparity between the temperatures in the Midwest as compared to the West and East Coast games. This is already factored into the run totals and odds, but it is worth noting 25- to 30-degree differences. As always, be mindful that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a home run play on Yahoo may be a below-average MLB DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
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