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Saturday, July 10, has gamers smiling with dual-slate action. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for pitchers and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
Be sure to head over to the Awesemo MLB DFS home page for all the best written daily fantasy baseball content, including daily articles like Spotlight Pitchers, MLB DFS Tournament Strategy and MLB Cheat Sheets for all the major DFS sites.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks, Saturday, July 10
Yahoo Stack of the Day: Milwaukee Brewers vs. RHP Vladimir Gutierrez — 5.0 implied runs
On Monday, Vladimir Guitierrez posted his best performance of his rookie campaign. After allowing seven home runs in the preceding four games, he held the Royals to just two earned runs on five scattered hits with six strikeouts across as many innings. On the whole, the Cuban is going through an adjustment period in The Show, and while he has shown glimpses of real talent, he does stand out as a pitcher to target on a loaded six-game main slate.
In a unique twist on Yahoo, 2018 National League MVP Christian Yelich ($18) has just the third-highest Yahoo salary on his own team. Recent acquisition Willy Adames ($21) and surprise breakout player Luis Urias ($19) are both ahead of him, and Jace Peterson, of all people, checks in with the same salary. Yelich has seen his launch angle go from a high of 11.3% (perfect for line drives) to 7.1% last year and now an abysmal 2.7% this season, which is leading to an abundance of groundballs. While he has been dealing with some nagging injuries here and there, his current production profiles for a full-season line of 15 to 20 home runs and 75 to 85 RBIs with 15 to 18 stolen bases. Four of his five home runs have occurred since June 3, and over his last 69 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he has a .420 wOBA with a .180 ISO — so all is not lost.
Over the last 30 days the Brew Crew has been locked in against righties with Urias (.203 ISO, 74 PAs), Adames (.333, 73), Peterson (.240, 63) and Keston Hiura (.278, 44) leading the way. Omar Narvaez should be in the middle of the order and he is a great way to knock out our catcher requirement. Plus, lost in the shuffle is Avisail Garcia, who continues to chug right along. The only knock against Milwaukee is that the Reds’ bullpen is well rested having not been overly taxed for the last four days.
Awesemo’s MLB DFS experts have created a new MLB Home Run & Strikeout Player Prop Tool that can help when making MLB DFS picks and offer some action down in the sports betting market. This expert tool is designed to predict the probability of hitters hitting home runs and pitchers to reach a certain number of strikeouts.
San Francisco Giants vs. LHP Jon Lester — 5.0 implied runs
Keep in mind that this will be a one o’clock local start time and the afternoon temperatures in San Francisco will be around 70 degrees, which is a bonus. Another bonus, of course, will be facing Jon Lester, who has allowed a home run in each of his last seven starts and in nine of his last 10. The 37-year-old veteran of 16 MLB campaigns barely qualifies as a “crafty lefty” anymore.
The Giants offense lacks many household names, but they have been stellar this season. Even with Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria and now Buster Posey on the injured list, their projected lineup is in the top-third of the league against left-handers. Mike Yastrzemski thrives in same-handed matchups posting a .217 ISO for his career. Darren Ruf, Austin Slater, Wilmer Flores and Donovan Solano all have had sustained success against opposite-handed hurlers and they are not going to break the bank. Finally, if Curt Casali is behind the dish, he is a solid MLB DFS pick on sites requiring us to roster a catcher.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at RHP Chris Flexen— 4.3 implied runs
Last night, Shohei Ohtani hit his league-leading 33rd home run, becoming just the fifth player to park one in the second level of T-Mobile Park. In his last 21 games, he now has 16 round-trippers, which is almost impossible to put into context. While the Halos clearly miss Mike Trout, Jared Walsh has quietly tallied 64 RBIs, which is the fifth-most in the league and he is seventh with 22 home runs and ninth with 22 doubles. The lineup does drop dramatically after this duo, though none of the other hitters are saddled with budget-busting salaries.
Reclamation project Chris Flexen has been outperforming all expectations after spending last year in Korea. Over his last seven starts, he has allowed only 13 runs, and while he is lacking strikeout stuff, he also has been limiting power. Ohtani and Walsh can take any pitcher out of the park, but this style does elevate the rest of the Angels lineup as they are loaded with contact hitters who put the ball in play. All it will take is some unlucky sequencing and timely walks for Flexen to be sent to the showers early.
Top Target: RHP Walker Buehler vs. Arizona Diamondbacks— 2.6 implied runs
DFS Salary: Yahoo $58 | FanDuel $10,400 | DraftKings $9,600
This has been an outstanding season so far for Walker Buehler. Currently, he is 10th in the league with a 2.49 ERA and seventh with a 0.92 WHIP. While he is by no means a strikeout artist, he is averaging a tick shy of one strikeout per inning, which is still solid. On the season, the Diamondbacks have an 83 wRC+ against righties, which is the second-worst in all of MLB and indicates they are creating runs 17% less efficiently than league average. Arizona also has the second-worst power numbers, and considering 35-year-old Asdrubal Cabrera is regularly batting in the middle of the lineup, this is a delightful matchup for opposing pitchers. While it is generally a fool’s errand to predict a victory for a starting pitcher, the Dodgers are 3-to-1 favorites, and Buehler has closed out the sixth inning in 16 of his 17 outings and notched a league-best 14 quality starts.
Secondary Target: RHP Joe Musgrove vs. Colorado Rockies — 3.1 implied runs
DFS Salary: Yahoo $45 | FanDuel $8,900 | DraftKings $7,700
Sadly, the DraftKings salary algorithm seems to think this game is being played in Coors Field based on the unfathomably low tag they have assigned Joe Musgrove. While Musgrove has struggled dramatically in his last two starts, allowing 10 runs and three home runs combined to the Nationals and Reds, he was somewhat unlucky considering he allowed only 15 baserunners in these nine innings.
For those of you worried about the “sticky stuff” inspections curtailing the effectiveness of Mustgrove, it should be noted that his spin rates for his fastball, curve and cutter have remained consistent over his last 10 starts. Colorado is the worst offense in the league against right-handed pitching, scoring 30% less efficiently than league average. They are also lacking power, particularly on the road, which makes this a nice “get-right” spot for Musgrove heading into the All-Star break.
Afternoon Target: RHP Anthony DeSclafani vs. Washington Nationals — 3.5 implied runs
DFS Salary: Yahoo $44 | FanDuel $8,200 | DraftKings $9,500
Gamers will be flocking to Lucas Giolito against the Orioles on the afternoon slate, which makes Anthony DeSclafani an intriguing option against the Nationals. While Washington has been league average against right-handed pitching, it is likely to have only two left-handed batsmen in its lineup today. For years, DeSclafani’s Kryptonite has been opposite-handed hitters. While he seems to have mitigated that weakness, it is still comforting to know that aside from Juan Soto and the switch-hitting Josh Bell the rest of the Nats’ bats will be righties. Trea Turner is the only other hitter that DeSclafani will need to navigate on his way to what should be a solid performance.
Final Thoughts for the Saturday, July 10, MLB DFS Slate
Today we have twin six-game slates beginning at 4:05 p.m. ET and 7:15 p.m. ET. This should make for double the tournament fun and we are seeing some larger contests today with no competition from the NBA. Check back with all of our Awesemo MLB DFS content to find the right MLB DFS picks to lift our lineups to the top of the tournament leaderboards.
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