MLB DFS Bargains: Wednesday 9/11

Brad Johnson
Rotoworld

Welcome to MLB DFS Bargains. We’ll split the analysis into three groups: very cheap, mid-tier, and expensive. A greater emphasis will be placed on the lower end of the price scale.

Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.

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We’re cooking with 14 games tonight. Not a single pitcher meets my usual points per $1,000 requirement for “bargain” status.

DIRT CHEAP BARGAINS

Trent Grisham –OF – Milwaukee Brewers (at Pablo Lopez)

On Monday, Grisham finally rewarded DFSers who consistently rostered him as a potential high-octane, low-cost play. He sprayed five hits in six plate appearances. The performance has pushed his price tag to the upper limits of bargain territory. He’s still a value at this price against Lopez. The Marlins righty has posted mixed results since returning to action in late-August. He typically works around the strike zone. Grisham offers a full shed of fantasy tools – namely above average plate discipline, contact skills, and power. He’s a fly ball hitter which matches up well against Lopez’s ground ball tendencies.

Sam Hilliard – OF – Colorado Rockies (vs Dakota Hudson)

Raimel Tapia – OF – Colorado Rockies (vs Dakota Hudson)

A couple low cost Rockies could find their way into the lineup tonight. Hilliard is the better target by conventional considerations. That’s because he’s a left-handed power hitter with modest fly ball tendencies. Hudson is a ground ball pitcher, the sort whose stuff tends to translate poorly to Coors Field. He’s likely to get less sink than he’s used to, leading to shaky command and juicy fastballs. Hilliard has around a one-in-four chance to home tonight. By comparison, Tapia is quite unlikely to leave the yard. As a ground ball hitter against a ground ball pitcher, you’re mostly just hoping for multiple hits. He fits better as a cheap connecting piece in a stack.

Ryan McBroom – 1B/OF – Kansas City Royals (at Reynaldo Lopez)

The Royals haven’t consistently used McBroom despite good results through 22 plate appearances. He seems to be in line to start tonight against Lopez, probably batting sixth in the lineup. McBroom is a power threat with a roughly one-in-four chance to homer tonight. He hammered 26 home runs in 482 plate appearances in Triple-A to go with good plate discipline and contact rates. Lopez is one of the most infuriating pitchers in the league. He bounces between gems and disasters with little regard for quality of opponent. As such, consider this a volatile matchup.

Also Consider: Travis Shaw, Jaylin Davis, Isan Diaz, Luis Urias, Brian Goodwin, Ty France, Welington Castillo, Ryan O’Hearn, Willy Adames, Phillip Ervin, Manuel Margot, Danny Mendick

MID-TIER MUST PLAYS

J.D. Martinez – OF – Boston Red Sox (at Trent Thornton)

The Red Sox offense is seemingly in a good spot to deliver some damage against Thornton and a weak Blue Jays bullpen. Toronto’s starter has some long-term promise if he can hone his command. At present, he’s merely effectively wild on his good days. Usually, “effectively” doesn’t apply. Martinez is among the likeliest hitters to homer tonight with a one-in-three chance to go deep. His ability to work counts all but ensures he’ll at least deliver some production. This is a high floor, high ceiling play.

Also Consider: Ji-Man Choi, Franmil Reyes, Yasiel Puig, Harrison Bader, Kyle Schwarber, Eloy Jimenez

HIGH PRICED VALUES

Austin Meadows – OF – Tampa Bay Rays (at Ariel Jurado)

It goes without saying that Coors Field bats are fire emojis tonight. Rangers starter Jurado appears to be extremely susceptible to left-handed hitters. He rarely induces whiffs from lefties (4.85 K/9) and allows a massive 46.8 percent hard contact rate. For his part, Meadows has destroyed righties to the tune of .302/.388/.586. Expected to bat third in the order, the young Rays slugger could credibly deliver DFS value via power, multiple hits, and/or run production.

Also Consider: Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna, Paul Goldschmidt, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado

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