Welcome to MLB DFS Bargains. We’ll split the analysis into three groups: very cheap, mid-tier, and expensive. A greater emphasis will be placed on the lower end of the price scale.
Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.
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The main slate features 11 games this evening and kicks off at 7:05pm ET. Keep an eye out for rain in Boston, New York, and St. Louis. The risk isn’t considered very high at this time.
DIRT CHEAP BARGAINS
Considering the deep discount at which he’s available, Houser is the ace of the bargains. This isn’t simply an instance when a guy is so cheap that he need only show up to provide a little value. He would be one of the better mid-tier pitchers if he were priced 50 percent higher. Houser has the potential to keep pace with the non-aces thanks to a strikeout per inning and a hefty ground ball rate. He effectively limits hard contact. The Cardinals only have a few fly ball hitters and will likely pile up ground ball outs. Like all extreme ground ball guys, Houser is susceptible to BABIP-fueled hit parades.
The Brewers leadoff man has all the skills we could possibly want from a DFS bargain – power, contact, discipline, speed, and frequent fly ball contact. He’s a solid bet for a home run tonight, and he can deliver value in a host of other ways too. The fly ball tendencies will hurt his batting average and therefore his consistency, but that’s made up for with more home runs. Wainwright has very large platoon splits this season. He’s also a ground ball pitcher facing a fly ball hitter – advantage hitter.
This is hardly an ideal matchup. Biggio will have to navigate one of the best starting pitchers in the league in addition to a solid bullpen. However, there are a few traits working in the hitter’s favor – namely elite plate discipline and plenty of powerful, fly ball contact. While Biggio hasn’t fully engaged in the homer barrage that is 2019, he projects to be among the top home run threats over the remainder of the season due to his distribution of batted ball. Buehler is a ground ball pitcher which should help Biggio to create just the right angle of lift. Of course, strikeouts are probably the likeliest outcome.
With Carlos Correa once again absent, Mayfield is taking on a larger role in the Astros infield. Although he’s yet to contribute much of anything in the majors, he’s popped 25 home runs in 386 Triple-A plate appearances. Like those listed above, he’s a fly ball hitter set to face a ground ball pitcher. Norris is especially homer prone, having allowed 1.68 HR/9. Mayfield will likely bat ninth.
MID-TIER MUST PLAYS
For a heavily sabermetric team, Pederson makes for an unlikely leadoff man. He’s a power hitter with a high infield fly rate, leading to a consistently low batting average. Undoubtedly, they like that he works counts and gives his teammates a chance to watch the opponent. Waguespack and the Toronto bullpen are both well-below average. Pederson has around a one-in-three chance to pop his 26th home run of the season. And perhaps his 27th too.
Also Consider: Aaron Judge
HIGH PRICED VALUES
There’s a vast quantity of high value, high ceiling players tonight. Soler is perhaps the most interesting because he has somewhere between a 40 and 50 percent chance to homer. An all or nothing power bat, Soler is opposed by a pitcher who consistently works in the strike zone, doesn’t induce many whiffs, and has allowed 2.20 HR/9. What’s worse, the game is at homer happy Camden Yards. If Soler somehow fails against Brooks, he’ll have a couple more chances against a terrible Baltimore bullpen.