The new MLB DFS Bargains is back! We’ll split the analysis into three groups: very cheap, mid-tier, and expensive. A greater emphasis will be placed on the lower end of the price scale.
Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.
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We’re looking at a 10-game contest tonight.
DIRT CHEAP BARGAINS
Urena is one of the worst starters available this evening, and he’s priced accordingly. Strikeouts are the lifeblood of daily fantasy pitchers, and Urena offers scant few (5.81 K/9). To make up for it, he regularly throws six or seven innings. Over his last six starts – all against high quality offenses – he’s allowed a 2.77 ERA (4.52 FIP) and thrown at least six frames. The Tigers feature one of the weakest lineups in the American League. Six innings, three strikeouts, and a one-third chance at a victory are sufficient to earn a healthy return on investment.
Nearly the entire Marlins lineup is both extremely cheap and viable. While I wouldn’t recommend a flat stack of this oft-tepid offense, I could think of worse ideas than combining several Marlins with two of the high-priced pitching aces. Anderson is the best pure hitter in the Marlins lineup, although his daily fantasy value is hurt by a low home run rate. While I believe he’ll eventually hit for power in the majors, it shouldn’t be expected soon. Ramirez is an aggressive right-handed hitter with a profile similar to Avisail Garcia. He’s aggressive to a fault, makes hard contact, and hits way too many ground balls. Norris is a fly ball pitcher – i.e. a good matchup for Ramirez.
The day after a multi-homer game is usually the wrong time to roster a hitter. It draws attention to the player before DFS platforms incorporate the performance into his price. In most cases, the original price was more or less correct so any upticks in ownership hurt the expected value for the player’s owners. In this case, we should still recognize Tellez has a decently favorable matchup. He’s a hard contact machine with considerable raw power. Porcello has struggled with home runs this season, although he’s looked sharper in recent outings. Strikeouts (30.2 percent) are Tellez’s greatest weakness.
MID-TIER MUST PLAYS
The wind is blowing out at Wrigley Field today – a full 15 mph straight to center field. As always, confirm wind reports closer to game time. Assuming it holds, you’ll want to consider full stacks of the Cubs and Phillies. Hoskins is on the harder side of the matchup; Hamels has pitched exceptionally since joining the Cubs. Even so, Hoskins’ fly ball tendencies and relatively affordable price make him one of the most exciting picks in the slate. Even before factoring in wind-aid, Hoskins comes with a one-in-four chance for a homer.
HIGH PRICED VALUES
Voit is my pick for the top hitter in the slate. His opponent, Straily, is a fly ball pitcher who has allowed 2.93 HR/9. The Baltimore bullpen isn’t any great shakes either. Voit is a pull-oriented line drive machine. That should help him to maximize his quality of contact. Really, any Yankee figures to be in demand this evening.