MLB DFS Bargains: Thursday 6/13

Brad Johnson
Rotoworld
Brad Johnson reviews his favorite MLB DFS targets for Thursday, June 13. (Getty Images)

MLB DFS Bargains: Thursday 6/13

Brad Johnson reviews his favorite MLB DFS targets for Thursday, June 13. (Getty Images)

Welcome to MLB DFS Bargains. We’ll split the analysis into three groups: very cheap, mid-tier, and expensive. A greater emphasis will be placed on the lower end of the price scale.

Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.

Editor’s Note: Stay ahead of the competition from wire to wire with rankings, customizable projections, trade evaluator, exclusive columns and more in our Season Pass. And start using optimized lineups with our DFS Toolkit!

Scroll to continue with content
Ad

Keep an eye on the forecast for Baltimore and Boston for tonight’s nine-game slate. Risk is minimal.

DIRT CHEAP BARGAINS

Homer Bailey – SP – Kansas City Royals (vs Tigers)

The Tigers are currently tied with the Blue Jays for the worst offense against right-handed pitching. While nobody will mistake Bailey for a paragon of run prevention, he’s more than capable of earning his piddling price tag tonight. A shift to throwing more splitters has led to an uptick in strikeout rate. His 8.11 K/9 ain’t too shabby. Short outings are a risk although he also lasted six of more frames in five of 13 starts.

Kyle Garlick – OF – Los Angeles Dodgers (vs Jon Lester)

Enrique Hernandez – 2B – Los Angeles Dodgers (vs Jon Lester)

Chris Taylor – 2B – Los Angeles Dodgers (vs Jon Lester)

A mini-Dodgers stack is available in the bargain bin. A matchup against Lester isn’t ideal for value hunting. However, he should be treated like a 4.50 ERA pitcher rather than the 3.56 ERA he’s currently sporting. Garlick is the most interesting of the available Dodgers if only because he’s newest, cheapest, and most likely to hit a home run. He’s a powerful, high-whiff slugger. I suspect if given an extended trial, his performance would something like a right-handed Rowdy Tellez. Which is to say home runs, a low average, and way too many home runs. He’s not going to get much play in Los Angeles, but it looks like he’ll probably start tonight. As always, double-check.

Hernandez and Taylor always make it into the lineup when facing a southpaw. Hernandez is one of the truest platoon sluggers in the league. This year, he’s bating .272/.355/.481 against lefties – in line with his career norms. Taylor is only modestly better against lefties than righties. He’ll walk a few extra walks. Hernandez will probably leadoff with Taylor batting down in the lineup.

Cavan Biggio – 2B – Toronto Blue Jays (at Gabriel Ynoa)

Even though Biggio is hitting just .146/.327/.220 through 52 plate appearances, I’m quite encouraged by his early performance. He’s shown excellent plate discipline verging on passivity. He rarely whiffs. If he can add a little more selective aggression to his approach, he could shave 10 points off his 26.9 percent strikeout rate. His current .192 BABIP will regress, especially given his propensity for hard contact. And since he hits a considerable quantity of fly balls, multiple home runs are often possible.

Also Consider: Kendrys Morales, Rowdy Tellez, Matt Adams

MID-TIER MUST PLAYS

Josh Naylor – OF – San Diego Padres (at Jon Gray)

Naylor isn’t guaranteed to play, but he’s a must-own if he cracks the lineup. The Padres are visiting Coors Field and Naylor is shockingly affordable. He’s a disciplined hitter who produces copious low angle hard contact. While multiples hits are in the cards, he hits a few too many ground balls to be considered a multi-homer threat against a ground ball pitcher like Gray.

Also Consider: Jack Flaherty, Marcus Stroman, Vladimir Guerrero, Tommy Pham

HIGH PRICED VALUES

Nolan Arenado – 3B – Colorado Rockies (vs Matt Strahm)

When playing at home, there’s a strong case to be made that Arenado is the best hitter in the league. This year, he’s batting .393/.450/.689 at Coors Field. Against southpaws, he’s slashing .348/.438/.739. He costs a mint, and he’s well worth it. He’s currently day-to-day with a forearm contusion so be certain he’s in the lineup before committing to him.

Also Consider: Jacob deGrom, Franmil Reyes, Trevor Story, Fernando Tatis Jr. Mike Trout, Luke Voit

What to Read Next