Welcome to MLB DFS Bargains. We’ll split the analysis into three groups: very cheap, mid-tier, and expensive. A greater emphasis will be placed on the lower end of the price scale.
Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.
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Keep an eye on the forecast for Baltimore and Boston for tonight’s nine-game slate. Risk is minimal.
DIRT CHEAP BARGAINS
The Tigers are currently tied with the Blue Jays for the worst offense against right-handed pitching. While nobody will mistake Bailey for a paragon of run prevention, he’s more than capable of earning his piddling price tag tonight. A shift to throwing more splitters has led to an uptick in strikeout rate. His 8.11 K/9 ain’t too shabby. Short outings are a risk although he also lasted six of more frames in five of 13 starts.
A mini-Dodgers stack is available in the bargain bin. A matchup against Lester isn’t ideal for value hunting. However, he should be treated like a 4.50 ERA pitcher rather than the 3.56 ERA he’s currently sporting. Garlick is the most interesting of the available Dodgers if only because he’s newest, cheapest, and most likely to hit a home run. He’s a powerful, high-whiff slugger. I suspect if given an extended trial, his performance would something like a right-handed Rowdy Tellez. Which is to say home runs, a low average, and way too many home runs. He’s not going to get much play in Los Angeles, but it looks like he’ll probably start tonight. As always, double-check.
Hernandez and Taylor always make it into the lineup when facing a southpaw. Hernandez is one of the truest platoon sluggers in the league. This year, he’s bating .272/.355/.481 against lefties – in line with his career norms. Taylor is only modestly better against lefties than righties. He’ll walk a few extra walks. Hernandez will probably leadoff with Taylor batting down in the lineup.
Even though Biggio is hitting just .146/.327/.220 through 52 plate appearances, I’m quite encouraged by his early performance. He’s shown excellent plate discipline verging on passivity. He rarely whiffs. If he can add a little more selective aggression to his approach, he could shave 10 points off his 26.9 percent strikeout rate. His current .192 BABIP will regress, especially given his propensity for hard contact. And since he hits a considerable quantity of fly balls, multiple home runs are often possible.
MID-TIER MUST PLAYS
Naylor isn’t guaranteed to play, but he’s a must-own if he cracks the lineup. The Padres are visiting Coors Field and Naylor is shockingly affordable. He’s a disciplined hitter who produces copious low angle hard contact. While multiples hits are in the cards, he hits a few too many ground balls to be considered a multi-homer threat against a ground ball pitcher like Gray.
HIGH PRICED VALUES
When playing at home, there’s a strong case to be made that Arenado is the best hitter in the league. This year, he’s batting .393/.450/.689 at Coors Field. Against southpaws, he’s slashing .348/.438/.739. He costs a mint, and he’s well worth it. He’s currently day-to-day with a forearm contusion so be certain he’s in the lineup before committing to him.