Welcome to MLB DFS Bargains. We’ll split the analysis into three groups: very cheap, mid-tier, and expensive. A greater emphasis will be placed on the lower end of the price scale.
Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.
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We have a reasonably sized seven-game slate on tap tonight. Rain is a risk in Cleveland.
DIRT CHEAP BARGAINS
The Blue Jays feature one of the worst offenses against left-handed pitchers. These days, Sabathia is nothing more than a wily veteran. Any start at Yankee Stadium is risky. We can expect roughly a strikeout per inning over five to six frames. The win bonus is well within reach. Jays starter Aaron Sanchez matches up terribly with the fly ball happy Yankees lineup.
Cleveland features an indifferent offense against right-handed pitchers. Keller is a ground ball pitcher and, with a couple exceptions, the Indians lineup is filled with ground ball guys. In short, expect a lot of ground balls. The Royals starter offers less strikeout upside than Sabathia, but it’s also more likely he’ll pitch deep into the game. The two hitters to watch out for are Jose Ramirez and recently promoted prospect Bobby Bradley. They’re the resident fly ball sluggers.
Home runs are a problem for Plutko. Over 108 career innings, he’s allowed 2.58 HR/9 including 2.93 HR/9 this season. Progressive Field is especially homer friendly to left-handed hitters. If there’s a drawback, it’s that both Duda and Plutko are fly ball guys, a combination that favors the pitcher. Although Duda has a miserable .151/.247/.258 batting line in 77 plate appearances, it can be chalked up to a .163 BABIP and .106 ISO. Both measures will improve going forward. Perhaps tonight if he can avoid easy pop ups.
MID-TIER MUST PLAYS
In the Battle of the Sox: Fenway Edition, Rodriguez finds himself in an interesting matchup opposite Lucas Giolito. This figures to be the closest thing to a pitcher’s duel in this slate. Rodriguez may be the top pitcher available despite a mid-tier price tag. The White Sox are strikeout prone. Most of them don’t work counts. Despite poor plate discipline, they’ve featured a league average offense against southpaws. Rodriguez consistently records over a strikeout per inning. He’s a changeup artist who has sustainable-looking reverse platoon splits.
HIGH PRICED VALUES
Early reports have the wind blowing out of Wrigley Field at a steady nine mph to right field. Braves starter Julio Teheran has a long history of steep platoon splits, although these have been muted this year. A closer look reveals the improvement is entirely due to an unsustainably low home run rate (0.48 HR/9). In other ways, he continues to struggle against lefty hitters. Regression looms. Rizzo feasts on northpaws, batting .295/.403/.581 against righties this season.