MLB betting: Luis Robert is an intriguing MVP long shot

In case you missed it, the MLB lockout is over.

As a result, we now know we are getting a full 162-game season that begins in early April. Outside of the season beginning a few days later than expected, it'll be a completely normal season.

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The usual suspects are at the top of the AL MVP favorites list. Reigning MVP Shohei Ohtani is the favorite and his teammate Mike Trout is close behind.

However, there's something about a long shot that gets the blood pumping. Not only is the payout much higher, but the satisfaction of potentially being right is much higher as well. That's why I'm turning my eyes to a young star who plays his games on the South Side of Chicago.

Luis Robert is ready to break out

Luis Robert was heralded as a top prospect before catching on with the White Sox in 2020. He has speed, power, and a great glove. All these tools were on display in the pandemic shortened season. Robert finished in second place in AL Rookie of the Year voting and won a Gold Glove in the outfield. He finished with 11 home runs and 9 stolen bases in 56 games, which would project to nearly a 30/30 season in a normal season.

Robert looked poised to break out in his sophomore year and become one of the league's best players, but injury reared its ugly head. Robert missed over three months from May until August with a hip injury. Even in an injury shortened season, Robert showed a lot of growth and promise.

Robert raised his batting average by over 100 points from his rookie year to his sophomore campaign. He got on base at a much higher rate in 2021 and struck out at almost half the rate he did during his rookie year. In Chicago's four playoff games against the Astros, Robert went 7-for-15.

If Robert can play a complete season and get his 550 at-bats, the sky is the limit. Over his two years, he's played 124 games. In that time frame, he's batting .294 with 24 home runs. Once he came back from injury in 2022, Robert absolutely looked like a star who was putting it all together at the plate. For that reason, I'm extremely interested in backing Robert to win the AL MVP at 30-to-1 odds.

We know he has the speed and the glove to be an impact player in multiple ways. He is a part of arguably the best lineup in baseball that will offer him not only opportunities but protection. He will have a chance to score runs and drive in runs. Teams will be forced to pitch to him because guys like Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez surround him in the lineup.

Chicago is expected to be one of the top teams in baseball. The Sox have the third-best odds to win the World Series at 11-to-1. Being on a winning team only helps in the MVP race, and I think we can project Robert to be a key part of the lineup for one of the league's better teams.

The rest of the field

Luis Robert finds himself at 30-to-1 for a reason.

Shohei Ohtani is the favorite to win AL MVP at +350. His teammate Mike Trout is right behind him with +400 odds. Coming in with the third-best odds is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at +450.

Fading Ohtani seems like the logical thing to do here. Almost everything went perfectly for him last season. He's dealt with injuries in the past, which will always be a concern. Ohtani also certainly slowed down in the second half of the season, as he hit just .229 after the All-Star break and his OPS dropped nearly 200 points.

Speaking of Ohtani, he is proof that there's nothing wrong with betting a long shot in the MVP market. Last season, Ohtani opened at 40-to-1 to win AL MVP. By opening day, he was down to 30-1. By June, Ohtani was +130 to win AL MVP. He obviously ended up cashing in for his backers in runaway fashion. Let's hope Luis Robert can do the same this year.