Minnesota Vikings NFL draft mailbag: Looking to the future
We are less than a month away from the NFL draft and two and a half weeks removed from the start of free agency. With that comes a lot more information and a clearer picture on what the Vikings are primed to do in the draft.
Even with all the new information gathered in the last few weeks, there is still a lot of that we don’t know. So much of how the Vikings will handle the draft will be based on situations. We discussed some of those on Purple Access.
With so much still needing answers, I put out a call for questions on Twitter and we got some good ones. Dive into the latest mailbag.
Who would you trade up for?
Other than QB, what player is this draft would you trade up for?
— PHL (@triviaman1968) March 29, 2023
If it’s not a quarterback, I would trade up for Jalen Carter. There was some off-field issues with Carter, but based on the information that we know, that seems to be an isolated incicdent. On the field, Carter is worth the first overall pick. He penetrates the interior with quickness and explosion consistently. If he ends up falling past 10th overall, that’s a trade I would consider, even if it means giving up a first round pick.
Defensive tackle class
What is your opinion on the DTs in this class? I think this is a huge need for the Vikes.
— Cole Larson (@ColeLar44356297) March 29, 2023
The defensive tackle class is an interesting one. There are some high-end players but not a lot of depth. From my perspective, the Vikings are looking to not worry so much about having a great defensive line group but one that is capable and does their job. I mentioned earlier that I would move up for Carter, but that’s unlikely. Calijah Kancey is explosive but undersized and Bryan Bresee is all traits. I think it’s firmly in play in the first round, but if they don’t take one before pick 50, I wouldn’t expect one.
Division Rivals
One player you don't want the Bears to draft, one player you don't want the Lions to draft, one player you don't want the Packers to draft
— Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) March 30, 2023
This question comes from the managing editor of Packers Wire and it’s a good one. If I had to pick one player that I don’t want to see on each team.
Chicago: Georgia DT Jalen Carter
Detroit: Florida QB Anthony Richardson
Green Bay: Clemson EDGE Myles Murphy
Dalvin Cook
Do you get the sense that Dalvin Cook will be either traded or released soon? What would be the upside of keeping him with his cap number?
— Made in Minnesota (@Sladetrade) March 30, 2023
I think it’s going to be one of two things: he gets traded during the draft or he stays this season. The shoulder surgery that guaranteed an extra $2 million really put a wrench into their likely plans to move on from him. Cutting him at this point would likely only be a last resort kind of move to create cap space. A post-June 1st could also be in play since he is almost guaranteed to be off the roster next season.
A trade makes sense, especially for a team like the Bills. The Vikings likely would trade him for a fourth round pick, but this deep running back class will hinder that. That’s where a team like the Bills come in becuase they have spent so much draft capital on rookie running backs that a veteran would make sense.
Cornerback room
How would you like them to address the remaining CB need in the draft/FA? I.E. Would you attack certain skills like slot corner in one or the other? Would you be looking for depth or a day 1 starter? Etc.
— Jordan Barrett (@CloudCityFB) March 30, 2023
This is an interesting question. The whole point of a cornerback room is that you don’t want a weak link because it’s a weak-link system. As long as you don’t have a true weakness, that’s the strategy you want to have.
My ideal scenario is to sign one more more starting caliber cornerback and a depth piece while adding one more in the draft before the end of round four. Day two is the sweet spot for cornerback based on talent and value.
What does a trade down look like?
If the Vikings trade down in the first round, what team is the most logical trade partner, regardless of how the board stands, and what would be a 'good' trade in your mind in terms of compensation?
— Ted Glover (@purplebuckeye) March 30, 2023
If they don’t trade up for a quarterback, a trade down is the most likely scenario. Last year, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah traded every pick that he entered the draft with.
If the Vikings were to trade down, I would look at teams with two second round picks so they can get multiple shots during the of the draft.
If there is a second round pick in the 30’s, it’s more likely that the Vikings would have to include a day three pick to make it work value wise. The Rich Hill trade chart values the Vikings first round pick at 245 points. Here are the values of each pick with teams that have two picks in the second round.
Pittsburgh: 32 (184) and 49 (118)
Detroit: 48 (121) and 55 (101)
Chicago: 53 (106) and 61 (86)
Seattle: 37 (162) and 52 (109)
New York Jets: 42 (142) and 43 (138)
Trade up for Richardson?
What realistically would it take to move up to get AR-15? how many future 1st, which team/slot would you target?
— Purple & Gold 4 Days (@jday_24) March 30, 2023
It honestly depends on what happens at picks one and two. If Richardson is there at pick three and you truly believe that he’s “the guy,” you figure it out. The likely price there would look something like
23rd and 87th overall
2024 first round pick
2025 first round pick
Danielle Hunter
Is that a fortune? Absolutely it is! Here’s the thing: it won’t matter if Richardson hits and if he doesn’t, the next general manager will have his shot. I wrote a piece last week highlighting other potential trade ups.
Christian Ponder PTSD?
This is an honest question Tyler… Why do you think so many people are so hesitant to move on from Kirk? Is it really as simple as Ponder PTSD?
— jason (@spardisjx) March 30, 2023
Honestly, yeah. I think Phil Mackey of SKOR North was the first to say it and I thought it was spot on. Let’s be real. This franchise has had one borderline franchise quarterback since Fran Tarkenton retired and that was Daunte Culpepper.
Let’s be honest, we have been a very tortured fanbase when it comes to quarterbacks. Dennis Green, for how great he was, didn’t prioritize quarterback. He believed they were just a cog in the machine. His parting gift to the Vikings was selecting Culpepper. His career got derailed due to a shredded knee and an Orange Julius.
The Christian Ponder impact, where the Vikings just took the next guy, is what is giving this fanbase PTSD. You “need” a quarterback again and it’s giving some fans the same feeling. I don’t blame them, especially since Kirk Cousins has been fine-great depending on the game. As a quarterback, he’s been at worst a healthy, steady hand. The upside isn’t there anymore, which is why getting a quarterback is such a priority.
My advice: embrace the unknown. It’s not always a black hole. Every so often, there is a Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers on the other side.
Is Kwesi in over his head?
What's your read on why it looks like Kwesi is overpaying, i.e CJ ham at 4 mil per, Oliver at 7 mil per, Raegor for 4th rounder, draft trade with lions. Is he in over his head? Casual fan can see this is overcompensation, right?
— Chris (@CBrightheart) March 30, 2023
I understand that these moves seem odd, but it’s a part of their plan. There is going to be a shift towards 12 personnel and work more of a Kyle Shanahan inspired offense. The signing of Oliver looks to be exploiting a market inefficiency due to WR2s getting significant money and a talented tight end that can produce for you in both blocking and receiving they feel is a smarter play.
Ham is valuable on special teams and in the locker room. Plus, the likely shift towards 12 personnel will give Ham more snaps. Is the price too much? That’s definetely an argument you can make, but I don’t think it’s a big deal.
In terms of trading with a division rival, that’s fine. Analytical and historical models said the Vikings got value in the trade and they made (hopefully) good use of those picks. Adofo-Mensah is a different type of general manager and he is going to challenge the norms. That doesn’t mean it’s a bad thing! Keep your mind open and pay attention to how he handles business. You will find that his approach will change the way you see how the job should be done. Not all of it will stick, but enough will.
The Real Forno Show
