Michigan State football at Penn State: 5 determining factors and a prediction

1. Can MSU’s defense hold up against a red-hot Penn State offense and running game?

The perception of Penn State’s offense is not what the Nittany Lions have become. The stench lingers from back-to-back 17-point struggles against Northwestern and Michigan in October. But since then, Penn State has put up 45 points against Minnesota, 31 against Ohio State, 45 at Indiana, 30 against Maryland and 55 at Rutgers. And the last two weeks against the Terrapins and Scarlet Knights, the Nittany Lions have rushed for 249 and 237 yards, respectively, behind an improved offensive line and the dynamic freshman backfield duo of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, both of whom are over 700 yards rushing for the season. In limps MSU, allowing a Big Ten-worst 214 yards per game on the ground ground in conference play, with eight straight opponents rushing for more than 150 yards, five of them for better than 220 yards. If that doesn’t change, it’s hard to imagine MSU’s defense giving its own offense a chance to keep pace.

2. MSU’s own running game

MSU’s running game is much improved the past three weeks and getting progressively better — racking up 112 yards at Illinois, 197 against Rutgers and 242 Saturday against the Hoosiers, averaging at least 5 yards per carry each of the last two weeks. It’s still not a rushing attack that gets the tough yards when they’re needed, but on first and second downs, MSU's offensive line is creating holes and creases and Jalen Berger and Elijah Collins are taking advantage of them with explosive runs. Penn State, though, has been terrific against the run since getting mauled for 418 rushing yards by Michigan and allowing 165 by Minnesota the following week. Ohio State, Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers have all been held to less than 100 yards on the ground by the Nittany Lions, including just 32 last week for the Scarlet Knights. In other words, if you don’t have an elite offensive line, Penn State’s defense is just fine pushing back against you. That’s not great news for MSU. That said, the Spartans weren’t supposed to be able to run the ball at Illinois and averaged nearly 4 yards per carry and got the job done. When MSU hasn’t been able to run the ball — against Washington, Minnesota, Ohio State and Michigan — it’s had no shot.

3. If this is it for Jayden Reed, can he have himself a game?

This isn’t the senior year Jayden Reed imagined. He came back hoping to light up the Big Ten and improve his NFL draft stock. Instead, he got hurt early, missed a game and was hobbled for a bit after returning. When he was finally fully healthy, he dazzled in a nine-catch, 117-yard performance against Wisconsin. But he’s been pretty tame since, with 17 total catches for 227 yards and two scores in the four games since. Not bad, but not star-like numbers. If this is it for his college career, it would be a good game to leave a memorable impression. MSU needs somebody to be a problem for Penn State’s defense.

4. MSU’s special teams. Mostly its kicking game.

A week after MSU’s kicking game finally had its self a day against Rutgers, it had its worst day against Indiana — from the missed would-have-been game-winning field goal and a bad snap in overtime that led to another miss, to punts that were anything but the norm for Bryce Baringer and a kick return by the Hoosiers for a touchdown. MSU simply cannot beat Penn State with that sort of special teams performance. This crew has to shake it off and be on point for the Spartans to have any chance.

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5. How badly does MSU want this?

This MSU football team has shown no signs of quitting. That’s been among the Spartans’ better character traits during this turbulent season. They got off the mat to upset Illinois on the road three weeks ago. This week is every bit the chore it was to bounce back from the Michigan game. Perhaps more so. MSU’s second-half collapse against Indiana was a gut punch. You could see it in Payton Thorne and Xavier Henderson, that the loss to Indiana wasn’t something they’d easily overcome. How much more of this season does this team want? Do they want to play in a bowl game (which would likely require winning at Penn State)? Do they have the grit and fight it’ll take to compete in a tough environment against a team that’s rolling?

Prediction

For MSU, an upset at Penn State would be a season-ending palate cleanse and the best way to regain the recent good vibes lost last week against Indiana. There have been signs this season the Spartans are capable of it. It’s just hard to imagine.

Make it: Penn State 34, MSU 17

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.

This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Michigan State football at Penn State: Prediction, preview, how to bet