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Michigan football to face stiffest challenge yet: Michigan State's Kenneth Walker III

Free Press sports writer Michael Cohen shares what he learned in Michigan football's 33-7 win over Northwestern and looks ahead to the Wolverines' game against Michigan State on Saturday:

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Matchup: No. 6 Michigan (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten) vs. No. 7 Michigan State (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten).

RANKINGS: Top 5 shifts but Michigan, Michigan State stay put in coaches poll

Kickoff: 12 p.m. Saturday, Spartan Stadium, East Lansing.

TV/radio: Fox; WJR-AM (760), WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050).

Line: Wolverines by 4.

Know the foe: Michigan State

What a turnaround it’s been for the Spartans under coach Mel Tucker. After jumping ship from Colorado following a 5-7 season in 2019, Tucker limped to a 2-5 record in his first season at MSU during the shortened 2020 campaign. He picked his way through the rubble of the Mark Dantonio era by overhauling the culture, pilfering the transfer portal and putting together a coaching staff ready for a rebuild. Few expected the about-face in East Lansing to develop so quickly, especially considering the state of the program Tucker inherited from the last regime. At 7-0, the Spartans have already matched their win total from the last two seasons under Dantonio and could reach 10 wins for just the second time since 2015 barring a November collapse.

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MSU cruised through its first two games against Northwestern and Youngstown State before traveling to Florida for a game against then-No. 24 Miami. The Spartans pulled away for a 38-17 win that lost its heft as the Hurricanes’ season unraveled in subsequent weeks. Tucker’s club defeated Nebraska by the same 3-point margin as the Wolverines before upending Western Kentucky and pummeling Rutgers to reach 6-0. MSU’s final test before the showdown with Michigan was a trip to Indiana that nearly ended in catastrophe. The Spartans turned the ball over twice and were out-gained 322-241 by the Hoosiers but turned a narrow halftime deficit into a win by scoring 13 points in the second half. After a bye week to rest and recover, Michigan State will be eager to take the field for Saturday’s rivalry game with the Wolverines.

3 things we learned

There is depth at guard: On paper, the Wolverines faced a tricky scenario Saturday with both starting guards sidelined due to injury and a Northwestern front seven coming off a game against Rutgers with 11 tackles for loss. But Michigan received serviceable performances from backups Chuck Filiaga and Karsen Barnhart, who replaced right guard Zak Zinter (leg) and left guard Trevor Keegan (shoulder). The only quarterback hit allowed by the offensive line came on a safety blitz in the first quarter. And in the running game, where tailbacks Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum both topped 100 yards, the Wolverines averaged 5.4 yards per carry. Barnhart performed better in the passing game and finished as U-M’s highest-graded pass blocker on Pro Football Focus. Filiaga, who told reporters he wanted to develop a nasty streak this season, was Michigan’s top-rated run blocker on the interior. Coach Jim Harbaugh did not provide an update on Zinter or Keegan after the game. Zinter was in uniform for Saturday’s game while Keegan was not.

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Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) runs by Northwestern Wildcats defensive lineman Jeffery Pooler Jr. (5) during second half action Saturday, Oct. 23, 2021 at Michigan Stadium.
Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) runs by Northwestern Wildcats defensive lineman Jeffery Pooler Jr. (5) during second half action Saturday, Oct. 23, 2021 at Michigan Stadium.

J.J. McCarthy has wheels: Harbaugh and quarterbacks coach Matt Weiss have told reporters the reason for inserting McCarthy into games for a few snaps each week is largely to take advantage of his mobility as a runner. Prior to Saturday, McCarthy’s longest carry of the season was 16 yards and he’d only averaged 2.8 yards per carry against Wisconsin and Nebraska on six attempts. The idea finally materialized in the win over Northwestern as McCarthy sprung free for big gains on both of his quarterback keepers. He picked up 23 yards on his first rush of the day late in the third quarter by juking defenders in the open field. He offered a near-repeat of that display three snaps later by gaining 13 more yards on a drive that ended in a field goal. With two carries totaling 36 yards against the Wildcats, McCarthy surpassed the combined total of McNamara’s longest carries in all seven games (27 yards) this season.

Tight ends are improving: Incremental as the progress might be, Michigan’s tight ends are becoming a larger part of the passing game. After the month of September in which All was the only tight end to catch a pass, the supporting cast of Luke Schoonmaker and Joel Hongiford, a converted offensive tackle, are beginning to pull their weight. The trio of tight ends has combined for 17 receptions totaling 152 yards over the last three games as McNamara relies on them for short passes to pick up first downs. What the group lacks in downfield speed and big-play ability they make up for with yards after the catch on underneath throws. All and Schoonmaker combined for 47 yards against Northwestern — roughly 29% of U-M’s total passing yards — with 35 of them coming after they caught the ball. “Great to see Erick All and the tight ends really get in the game plan,” Harbaugh said.

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Michigan State's Kenneth Walker III, top, dives over Western Kentucky's Miguel Edwards for a touchdown during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 2, 2021, in East Lansing, Mich.
Michigan State's Kenneth Walker III, top, dives over Western Kentucky's Miguel Edwards for a touchdown during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 2, 2021, in East Lansing, Mich.

3 things to watch

Walker is the main man: While the Wolverines have relied on the two-headed rushing attack of Haskins and Corum, the Spartans funnel most of their offense through one player: tailback Kenneth Walker III. A former three-star recruit from Arlington, TN, Walker chose Wake Forest over the likes of Kent State, Arkansas State, Eastern Kentucky and Illinois State, and rushed for 1,158 yards with 17 touchdowns across two seasons. Then he blossomed into a star at MSU. Through seven games, Walker leads the country with 142.4 rushing yards per game and ranks fourth with 6.56 yards per carry among players who have carried the ball 100 or more times. His 94-yard touchdown run against Rutgers earlier this season was only the second-longest rush of his career following a 96-yarder during his time with the Demon Deacons. With 997 yards and nine touchdowns this year, Walker has been mentioned as a dark horse candidate for the Heisman Trophy. He has four 100-yard games and two 200-yard games for the Spartans.

The pass defense is porous: Against the run, the Spartans are tied for 28th nationally and fifth in the Big Ten with an allowance of 119.3 yards per game. Against the pass, the Spartans rank 121st out of 130 FBS teams and last in the Big Ten with an average yield of 285.4 yards per game. The result is a group that has bent without breaking for much of the season while relying on its ability to create turnovers as a neutralizer for unsightly gains. MSU has intercepted six passes and recovered six fumbles to produce a turnover margin of 0.71, tied for 20th in the country. The Spartans have allowed more than 21 points in a game only once — to Western Kentucky, of all teams — which places them among the top 20 in the nation in scoring defense. How well MSU tackles will be worth watching against U-M tailbacks Haskins and Corum. Michigan State has missed 88 tackles this season with eight different players whiffing five or more times, according to PFF. The Wolverines have missed only 44 tackles this season and have just two players with at least five misses.

Michigan Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines during action against the Northwestern Wildcats Saturday, Oct. 23, 2021 at Michigan Stadium.
Michigan Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines during action against the Northwestern Wildcats Saturday, Oct. 23, 2021 at Michigan Stadium.

Differing conversion rates: Coaches often cite their team’s performance on third and fourth downs as a significant reason for why they won or lost a game. This is something to monitor when the Spartans and Wolverines collide Saturday given the season-long differences between the two offenses in these categories. The Spartans have struggled on third down this season converting 30 of 83 attempts for a rate of 36.1%, good enough for 100th in the country and roughly three points lower than their opponents thus far. But that mark is significantly lower than the opponent they’ll face this week. Led by McNamara and the two-headed rushing attack, the Wolverines are moving the chains on third down 46.5% of the time to rank 22nd nationally and second in the Big Ten. Michigan also has the advantage on fourth-down conversions this season: 69.23% for U-M (24th nationally) compared to 50% for the Spartans (T-70th).

Contact Michael Cohen at mcohen@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @Michael_Cohen13. Send questions for his next U-M mailbag.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan football to face stiffest challenge yet: Kenneth Walker III