New Mexico vs. LSU: How To Watch, Preview, Odds, Predictions
New Mexico vs. LSU: How To Watch, Preview, Odds, Predictions
Can the Lobos surprise the world?
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A money game for sure
WEEK 4: New Mexico Lobos 2-1 vs. LSU Tigers 2-1
WHEN: Saturday, September 24 —5:30 MST/7:30 EST
WHERE: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
CAPACITY: 102,321
WEATHER: 95/71 Sunny Winds light & variable
TV: SEC Network+
STREAM: FuboTV — Get a free trial
Play by Play Mike Corey Analyst: Dave Steckel,
RADIO: 77 KKOB Lobo Radio Network
SERIES RECORD: New Mexico will face LSU on Saturday for the first time in program history.
LAST WEEK: New Mexico defeated UTEP 27-10 & LSU defeated MSU 31-16
WEBSITES: LSU | New Mexico
GAME NOTES (PDF): LSU | New Mexico
SP+ PROJECTION: LSU by 30.5
FEI PROJECTION: LSU by 29
Odds/Point Spread: Tigers (-31)
Total/Over-Under: 47
A new look in the bayou 🔴⚪️⚪️ pic.twitter.com/tJjxjQmdqV
— New Mexico Football (@UNMLoboFB) September 22, 2022
The New Mexico Lobos will travel to Tiger Stadium to take on the heavily favored SEC Tigers this Saturday.
The Tigers are undoubtedly the favorites in this one, with the line posted at 30.5 points. The over/under in this outing is 45.5 points.
The Tigers won against the Mississippi State Bulldogs last week in their most recent game, 31-16.
LSU got a taste of this 3-3-5 defense at Mississippi State as Defensive Coordinator Zach Arnett is a former New Mexico Player; former SDSU Defensive Cordinator runs the same defense style; he comes from the Rocky Long coaching tree.
Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels was 22-for-37 for 210 yards, with one TD and no INTs, against Mississippi State.
The Lobos head into the game at 2-1 for the season with wins over Maine and UTEP, and their single loss was division foe Boise State in their second game of the year.
Miles Kendrick finished 13/19 with 111 yards passing, and He had a QB rating of 107 and ended the contest with a single interception.
The leading rusher for the Lobo offense was Sophmore Nate Jones, with 21 carries for 83 yards and averages 4.0 yards per attempt.
The Lobos ran the ball 45 times, with 188 yards total, with an average of 4.2 yards per carry. The Lobo offense averages 27.3 points per game and has 859 yards for the season.
This Lobo offense has had 11 players rush this year, and Junior RB Sharod White leads them in rushing yards as a team with 101 yards, followed by Nate Jones at 95.
This Rocky Long 3-3-5 Defense is 20th in college football in terms of their opponent’s scoring, giving up just 13.7 PPG.
Their opponents are running for an average of just 2.9 yards per attempt on the ground and just 74.7 rushing yards per game, and the Tigers will be their biggest challenge to date.
The Lobo defense allowed 224 yards through their first three games and gave up 565 yards passing, sitting in at 37th in FBS D1 nationally.
They have conceded 118.3 yards per game through the air and have given up a competition ratio of 48% and 263 yards per game for the year, which put them just 15th in D1 Football.
The Lobo defense has yielded three touchdowns through the air in addition to 1 touchdown on the ground.
The Lobo Defense has excelled on third down, with opponents converting just 23% of attempts. That puts New Mexico 13th in the nation.
The Lobos ranks 11th in opponent completion percentage. Opposing quarterbacks complete less than 50% of passes against the Lobos’ defense.
This Rocky Long 3-3-5 Lobo defense also does a solid job at preventing big plays. Long’s group has forced 10 turnovers this year, tied for second in the Country. The Lobos rank is eighth in 10-yard play rate and 24th in 20-yard play rate.
The Lobo Defense has done a solid job at not giving up big plays this year. The Lobos rank is eighth in 10-yard play rate and 24th in 20-yard play rate. Long’s group has forced ten turnovers this year, which is tied for second in the Country.
Three Keys to a Lobo Victory
THE OFFENSIVE LINE MUST PLAY THEIR MOST PHYSICAL GAME TO DATE
Its no secret that the game of football is won in the trenches, and the offensive line must establish that it’s no intimated and play a very physical game, not giving up sacks.
They must not allow Tiger defensive line to stop the Lobo offense in its tracks by being in the backfield after every ball snap.
The Lobos have some very talented wide recievers and running backs. Offensive Coordinators (Derek Warehime) can help game plan, but at some point, the players have to execute and make plays to keep the chains moving to give the lobos a fighting chance to score.
They must allow time for Quarterback Miles Kendrick to have time to throw and run this Lobo offense to move the chains.
This offense has improved from last year and has shown signs of life in some games, but in other games, they would start strong and not finish strong; they must play strong all four quarters to give them a chance to compete
DEFENSIVE EFFORT TO LIMIT BIG PLAYS AND CAUSE TURNOVERS
There is a reason that the name Rocky Long is well known in college football circles. Urban Meyer once told a former Athletic Director that preparing for this unorthodox defense was a nightmare as you never knew what angles or pressure was coming at you.
Last week the Tigers got a taste of this defense while playing Mississippi State, as former Lobo player and former Defensive Coordinator Zach Arnett runs the same defense. He comes from the Rocky Long coaching tree.
Last week the Tigers were trailing 16-10 going into the final period before scoring 21 points in the fourth to win 31-16; that being said, this same defense did well for three quarters; it’s just a tough defense when run correctly.
This Lobo defense made huge improvements last year in 2021, ranking 44th in total defense, a 57-sport improvement from 2020 for the Lobos.
Head Lobo Coach Danny Gonzales has stated unapologetically that Long is the best DC in America; the numbers don’t lie as far as the massive improvements the Lobos have made in the last few years.
That being said, this Lobo defense must contain this explosive offense from going off and having scoring runs and running the score up; after all, the spread is 35 favoring LSU.
LSU is not ranked in the top 20, but it’s still an SEC team that plays the best of the best and can be dangerous for the Lobos if momentum starts to take over on the road.
So without a massive defensive effort, this could get ugly if the Tigers do what they did last week in the fourth quarter, scoring 21 points against Mississippi State.
PLAY SMART FOOTBALL
Good football teams don’t make mistakes or very good at not beating themselves. The Lobo team generally cannot be intimidated by the 112K fans at the game and stay composed and not make many mistakes.
They must play very smart football in all aspects to get a good night’s rest, pre-game meals, stay focused and take care of business.
One has to remember that we are still talking about young men who are easily distracted by all around them, and they must remember they are there to take care of business.
Teams that are heavy underdogs have one huge advantage, and that’s the other team tends to overlook them as not being a severe threat.
There is something about underdogs that go on the road; if there is a missed assignment, a blocked punt, or an interception, it just changes the momentum for the home team.
The Lobos’ entire team must be focused on their individual and group assignments, not allowing the large crowd, the atmosphere, and all the negative talk to get in their heads.
Be smart, play smart, and leave it all on the field as you have no regrets is the must-have attitude.
PREDICTION
I think the Lobos play hard, and just like last week against Mississippi State Defense, the defense can force a few three-and-outs for most of the first half to give the ball to the offense.
I think the offense will struggle with this very physical team and have a few plays that will stand out, but in the end, the Tigers win.
The Lobo offensive line has yet to show me they can match the physicalness of more oversized defensive fronts, which will be tough to overcome. The Tigers go on to victory but not without a fight from a scrappy New Mexico Lobo team.
That being said, this will be the perfect kind of team to make this Danny Gonzales team much stronger in competing against Mountain West opponents this year.
Playing strong teams can show you how much you need to work on and where some of your strengths are.
LSU 37-New Mexico 17
