Matt Strahm is sliding into fantasy relevance
It’s not easy for a player to get noticed in San Diego these days. Manny Machado was a pricy free-agent purchase, while Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack are buzzy rookies. The team is off to a solid 18-14 start, and Kirby Yates already has 14 saves. It’s a shame the Chicken isn’t still around to see this. There’s a lot of fun at Petco Park.
That said, it’s time we took a long look at left-handed starter Matt Strahm.
Strahm was roughed up in his first start of the year, but he’s quickly made amends. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in five straight turns, and he hasn’t walked anyone since April 7. His Thursday start at Atlanta was a clean landing: 6 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 6 K. That trimmed the ERA down to 3.03, while the WHIP crept up to a still-excellent 1.10.
Off-speed reliance is fueling the Strahm breakthrough. His fastball is down to 91.1 mph this year — two ticks from his career norm — and he’s throwing that pitch less than ever. He’s relying on his plus slider, his best pitch; Strahm now throws it 38 percent of the time. He’s also getting good results from his changeup.
To be fair, Strahm is succeeding in a way few current pitchers dare. His strikeout rate is a modest 7.4/9, and his fly-ball rate is higher than the league average. In short, he’s pitching to a lot of contact and a lot of air contact, and that makes you pause. SIERA, perhaps the best ERA estimator, spits out a 4.23 number; xFIP is also skeptical (4.43) while standard FIP is more trusting (3.31). Strahm is under the league average in chase rate and swinging-strike rate.
Then again, there’s a zippy K/BB rate (27 whiffs, five walks), and Petco Park is good pitcher work if you can get it. Strahm also carries both the SP and RP tags, for maximum flexibility. Next Wednesday’s home start against the Mets looks like a playable spot. And Strahm is probably under-owned in the Yahoo universe, trading at 53 percent.
And now it’s Nick Senzel Day
The Nick Senzel tuneup at Triple-A didn’t last long, just eight games. The Top 10 prospect is headed to Cincinnati, searching for chili, WKRP on the dial, and a regular spot in the Reds lineup.
Senzel’s Triple-A line was ordinary this spring (.687 OPS), but the 44-game trial from last year is probably more representative (.310/.378/.509, six homers, eight steals). Louisville was using Senzel in center field, where he’s expected to roam in the majors. The rest of his pro career, excepting one game, was spent at third base.
When name-prospects get the call, fantasy owners react. Senzel was acquired in 21 percent of Yahoo leagues over the last day, chasing him into the low-60s of ownership. He’s expected to slot second in Friday’s lineup, and the promotion means Scott Schebler is out of a job.
I’m initially putting a $10 price on Senzel, expecting someone who belongs in the majors but probably won’t be a star immediately. Baseball is hard. That said, Senzel should be owned, on spec, in just about every medium and deeper mixed league.
Chris Bassitt makes his move
If you have an eye on Chris Bassitt as a possible streamer, go-time is now. Bassitt gets the call Saturday at Pittsburgh, a reasonable assignment, and he’s been outstanding through two turns (12 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 16 K).
Sure, that .160 hit rate is absurdly lucky. But the juicy K/BB rate forces our action, and heck, Bassitt was useful in 11 appearances (seven starts) last year: 3.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP. Maybe he’s ready for a late-blooming breakthrough at age 30. You can still add Bassitt in about two-thirds of Yahoo leagues.
Also, keep an eye on what Oakland does with outfielder Skye Bolt this weekend. The 25 year old was crushing at Triple-A, a .325/.400/.675 slash with six homers, three steals, and 27 RBIs through 22 games. Sure, he’s old for the level, but they don’t hand out stats like that at the airport.
We won’t get a full sense of the Athletics regular lineup until they return home next Tuesday, but nonetheless, Bolt might be worth a what-the-heck add in those deeper leagues. Maybe something will pop.
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