Matt Nagy thought 65-yard field goal and Hail Mary had about the same chance of success

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On the last play of the Bears’ loss to the Steelers on Monday night, Matt Nagy decided to try a 65-yard field goal instead of a Hail Mary. It didn’t work.

After the game, Nagy said he felt that a 65-yard field goal and a Hail Mary had about the same chances of success, according to Bears sideline reporter Mark Grote.

That’s a puzzling thought. Bears kicker Cairo Santos has never shown anything close to 65-yard field goal range: His career long is 55 yards, and his 65-yard attempt came up well short. Pittsburgh’s Heinz Field is also a notoriously difficult place to kick.

Bears quarterback Justin Fields, meanwhile, at least has the arm strength to throw a football into the end zone from midfield. A Hail Mary is a low-percentage play, of course, but not as low percentage as the 65-yard field goal.

If Nagy truly thought the odds of success were the same on a 65-yard field goal and a Hail Mary, he either underestimated his offense or overestimated his kicker. The Hail Mary would have been the wiser choice.

Matt Nagy thought 65-yard field goal and Hail Mary had about the same chance of success originally appeared on Pro Football Talk