Maryland Home Dogs vs Ohio State, Week Preview

Vaughn Dalzell
·5 min read

Ohio State (-3.5) at Maryland

Both of these teams lead the country in wins against ranked opponents. Maryland has four, tied for second, and Ohio State is first with five wins over Top 25 opponents. Between the two, Maryland is 7-3 SU against Ohio State since joining the Big Ten Conference in 2014-15, including wins in three of the last four meetings.

Ohio State Head Coach Chris Holtmann is 2-3 versus Maryland and 0-2 at College Park, MD. Ohio State lost by 10 and 12 points in both meetings. Ohio State enters this game fresh off another close call, surviving Iowa on the road 89-85.

Ohio State has now had four games decided by six points or fewer in the last six outings. The Buckeyes are 5-1 SU in those games, losing at home to Purdue (67-65) and beating Iowa (89-85), Penn State (83-79) and Illinois (87-81).

Maryland has had an array of scorers that can fill the stat sheet. Five players total scored at least 19 points in a game this year for the Terps. In the Buckeyes' last few games, their opponents' points per possession numbers have gotten worse and that is one of the reasons I like Maryland here.

On a large scale, Ohio State has had seven opponents score above the average points per possession number versus them in the last nine games. In the previous three, opponents also hit above the NCAA average two-point percentage from the field. Maryland hits 52.5% of their two-point attempts this season (73rd).

Versus Purdue and Wisconsin, Maryland hit 30.0% and 36.0% of their triples. Maryland shot horrid from three in their last game at Penn State, going three-of-17 (17.6%) from deep in their last outing. Ohio State struggled to slow Iowa down despite winning, allowing 43.8% from deep and 44.4% from two in that meeting. If Maryland is hitting threes at home, this could be an outright win for the home dog Terps.

The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and I like Maryland to make it 6-1 in the previous seven.

This spread opened at +4.5 and has been moved all the way down to +2.5. I luckily grabbed it at +3.5 but would buy the extra half-point for a full-possession at +3. I would play the +2.5 for less than one unit. The +3 is available on DraftKings for -118 and +3.5 on BetMGM for -115.

Game Pick: Maryland +3.5 (1u) - playable down to +2.5

Top 3 Games to Bet the Rest of the Week

Notre Dame at Duke: Tuesday 4:30 PM ET

Duke has lost the last two games, an upset to Miami and a rivalry loss to North Carolina. For Notre Dame, they lost to Georgia Tech on the road by two points in their last outing. Duke is looking to avoid the second three-game losing streak of the season with a win at home versus Notre Dame in attempt to preserve their tourney hopes.

The Blue Devils beat the Fighting Irish by 34 last season and 22 the year prior, but this is not the same Duke team. The Blue Devils rank 321nd in defending the three this season (38.4%). The Fighting Irish rank 15th in the country with 38.7% from deep and 26th in effective field goal percentage (54.9%). If Notre Dame is hitting shots early, this is going to be a long night for Duke, even at home.

Duke's road to redemption this season won't get any easier with Notre Dame at home then NC State on the road.

West Virginia at Texas Tech: Tuesday 9:00 PM ET

This is a much-anticipated matchup between these two after the last meeting. We bet and wrote on this game, winning with West Virginia Moneyline coming down to an absolute sweat of a win. The Mountaineers closed the game out making 10 field-goal attempts in the final minutes in an 88-87 comeback on a game-winner with six seconds to go -- exhilarating.

Texas Tech is the home squad and has rattled off three straight wins since that loss. Tech has beat LSU, Oklahoma and Kansas State. Since that game, West Virginia is 2-1 SU, losing to Florida and beating Iowa State and Kansas. West Virginia has now won three of the last four meetings, but Texas Tech has won the previous two in Lubbock, TX.

I like the Red Raiders in revenge versus a Mountaineers squad whose last two road games came against Iowa State and Kansas State.This will be a true road test since Oklahoma State, and they were missing their best player. The road games prior to that? West Virginia lost at Oklahoma and Kansas. Expect Texas Tech to win this game outright.

Rutgers at Iowa: Wednesday 7:00 PM ET

Iowa is on a downfall right now, and there is no end in sight. For people who continue to back Iowa, it is probably best you wait for them to come out of the slump. Fading Iowa is an option because every game seems like it is theirs to win until closing time.

Rutgers is on a four-game winning streak after losing five straight, one of those to Iowa. The Hawkeyes won 77-75 in their trip to New Jersey, and back in Iowa, you would think a win would come. However, Iowa is 1-2 SU in the last three home games and 1-4 SU in their previous five games overall. Rutgers lost by five to Iowa last season on the road (85-80).

If the spread is +5 or larger for Rutgers, I would strongly consider them covering on the road.