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March Madness bracket betting winners and losers: Oh that brutal Gonzaga-TCU bad beat

It's hard to say what happened in the final 0.7 seconds of the weekend's NCAA tournament action was the worst betting beat in March Madness history. But it's up there.

Gonzaga was a 4.5-point favorite at BetMGM over TCU in the final game of the second round. The Bulldogs led by four when bettors got a break on a foul by TCU with less than a second left. Gonzaga hit both free throws to take an 84-78 lead. Even the most pessimistic Gonzaga bettor wasn't worried about losing.

Then there was a sequence that was virtually impossible, and a bad beat that will haunt those Gonzaga bettors.

TCU inbounded the ball, and it just rolled. Before the inbound it looked like the Horned Frogs would just touch the ball and walk off, but no. TCU's Damion Baugh followed the bouncing ball. It looked like it would hit his leg at one point, which would have started the clock and ended the game. He avoided it. Nobody from Gonzaga bothered to make a move to force Baugh to grab the ball. He kept moving downcourt and the clock didn't start. A player from the Bulldogs and one from the Horned Frogs even embraced as the ball was bouncing.

Then Baugh, a 33 percent 3-point shooter this season, grabbed the ball still well behind the line — beyond NBA range — and heaved it up. The shot was meaningless to the final outcome of the game. It went in. The crowd in Denver reacted as the ball went through the net, understanding the significance (sports betting is legal in Colorado).

They reacted in Las Vegas too, of course. Of all the bets on the spread at BetMGM for TCU-Gonzaga, 69 percent were on the Bulldogs.

Baugh didn't do anything wrong, playing until the final buzzer. Gonzaga really didn't either; the Bulldogs had the win in hand and didn't need to defend the ball in that spot. But it was a miserable moment for bettors and a lesson: Don't assume anything is a win until it's official.

There was a bad beat for the ages at the Gonzaga-TCU game in Denver on Sunday night. (Photo by Helen H. Richardson/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)
There was a bad beat for the ages at the Gonzaga-TCU game in Denver on Sunday night. (Photo by Helen H. Richardson/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)

Here are the rest of the March Madness betting winners and losers from the first week of the NCAA tournament:

WINNERS

Sportsbooks: The sportsbooks were rooting against Kansas to win it all as last week started. They don't even need to sweat future bets on the Jayhawks and a couple other big favorites past the first weekend.

Kansas' second-round loss to Arkansas was great news for the house. The bets on Kansas included a $10,000 bet that would have been a $90,000 win.

Overall, the sportsbooks had a great first week, capped by that Gonzaga bad beat. More than two-thirds of the bettors were on the Bulldogs.

The first two rounds of the NCAA tournament are a huge betting event. The TV ratings for the tournament were way up. Betting handle was huge. And bettors mostly lost.

“This has been the best start ever to the NCAA tournament in terms of action and results for the book," BetMGM trader Seamus Magee said in an email. "Duke, Kansas and Purdue losing were all good outcomes for BetMGM in the futures market."

Alabama: During a week that saw plenty of top teams struggle or lose, Alabama looked like the clear favorite.

The betting market agrees. Alabama has replaced Houston as the favorite to win the NCAA tournament. The Crimson Tide is +350 to win it all, pre-tournament favorite Houston is +400.

Alabama's 73-51 win over Maryland was a decisive second-round win for bettors who took the Crimson Tide as an 8.5-point favorite. Alabama won 96-75 in the first round over Texas A&M Corpus Christi but didn't cover a 24.5-point spread.

Alabama was the top overall seed in the tournament and actually looked the part of a national title favorite.

Favorites, barely: Through the second round of the tournament, favorites were barely ahead. According to VSIN's Dave Tuley, favorites went 24-23-1 against the spread in the first 48 games. They were 34-14 straight up, meaning a lot of underdogs lost but covered.

Underdogs did go 9-6-1 in the second round after favorites were 18-14 in the first round.

LOSERS

Over bettors: It was a pretty good year for betting overs during the college basketball season. Then the tournament happened.

Overs were just 11-33 through Saturday's games. The NCAA tournament draws a lot of casual bettors and those bettors generally trend toward betting overs. The overs evened out a bit on Sunday, going 6-2, but not enough to make it close to even.

That's a big reason sportsbooks had a huge opening weekend of the NCAA tournament.

Those who thought momentum mattered: Most of the teams that were hot coming into the NCAA tournament after winning their conference tournament are done.

Texas (Big 12), San Diego State (Mountain West), Alabama (SEC) and Gonzaga (WCC) are the only conference champions from multi-bid leagues still in the tournament. Teams like Duke, Purdue, Marquette, Memphis and Arizona won their league's auto bid, looked great going into the NCAA tournament and were done before the first weekend was up.

On the other side, teams that were bad coming into the tournament are still going. Tennessee had lost seven of 12 before the NCAA tournament. Creighton was on a 4-4 stretch. Kansas State lost two in a row including its first game in the Big 12 tournament. Michigan State hadn't won more than two in a row since early January. Arkansas had lost four of five.

It didn't matter. Remember when filling out your brackets next year that how a team comes into the tournament isn't necessarily reflective of how far they'll advance.

Big Ten: Once again, fading the Big Ten in the NCAA tournament was profitable.

The Big Ten tied for the most bids with eight, and only one is left. That's Michigan State, which made an unlikely run to the Sweet 16 as a No. 7 seed. The biggest failure, of course, was Purdue becoming the second No. 1 seed ever to lose in the first round.

Unless Michigan State has a championship run nobody sees coming — the Spartans are still +2500 to win the title — the Big Ten won't win a championship again. The conference's last championship was 2000. And betting against the Big Ten in the early rounds of the tournament has become a bankable trend.