March Madness bracket betting: Picks for Friday's Sweet 16 games
The best game of the NCAA tournament likely happened on Thursday night. But which one?
Kansas State beating Michigan State and Gonzaga's dramatic win over UCLA were both classics. It will be hard for any of the games on Friday to top those, but the NCAA tournament is usually pretty good at supplying memorable moments.
Here are the picks for Friday Sweet 16 games with the odds from BetMGM:
San Diego State (+7.5) over Alabama
For as good as Alabama has looked in March, and for most of the season, there are flaws. The Tide turns it over way too much. They're not a great three-point shooting team (34.1%, which is 172nd in the nation according to KenPom) and they shoot threes at a higher rate than just about any team in college basketball. Brandon Miller is a special talent but his shooting percentage in the last three games tells a story too: 25%, 0%, 29.4%. It feels like Alabama is more vulnerable than it has looked at times.
San Diego State has its own issues — it's not a good offensive team — but the Aztecs have had a good season and looked strong in their first two tournament games. San Diego State is a fantastic defensive team. The Aztecs might not beat Alabama, but they can keep it close.
Miami (+7.5) over Houston
Houston showed how good it can be in the second half against Auburn. The Cougars are a strong all-around team. Injuries to Jamal Shead and Marcus Sasser don't seem to serious heading into the Sweet 16. The Cougars know they're two wins from a Final Four in their hometown.
Still, 7.5 is a lot of points against a Miami team that is well coached and has a great backcourt. The Hurricanes can make enough shots to cover, even if they barely get there.
Creighton (-9.5) over Princeton
Princeton is one of those tough teams to figure out. Until the NCAA tournament they had no quality wins; the Tigers' only win over a top 100 KenPom team was in the Ivy League tournament final over Yale. The Tigers were fortunate to host that Ivy League tourney. It wasn't a great team all season; they deserved their 15 seed. Then Princeton got into the NCAA tournament and beat a very good Arizona team and then beat Missouri by 15. There was nothing in Princeton's resume to indicate that great week at the NCAA tournament was coming. Now what do we follow? Two great (albeit outlier) performances or a full season's worth of average results? If it's the latter, just remember that crazy things like St. Peter's in 2022 happen often in the tournament.
I'll go with Creighton though the line is huge. Creighton is a good team that had some rough patches in the regular season but played well last week. It's scary to lay that many points against Princeton after what the Tigers showed last week, but Creighton is the type of team that can cover a big number.
Xavier (+4.5) over Texas
This could be a really good game. Both teams execute very well on the offensive end. They've both played well lately. Xavier and Texas are each among the most experienced teams in the sport. Texas has looked like a national championship contender in a few of their recent dominant performance. Maybe Xavier can make a run like that too.
It wouldn't be a big surprise if Texas wins by double digits — the Longhorns beat Kansas by 16 and 20 already this month, and they had a 19-point win over Gonzaga early in the season — but Xavier can stay in this game. The Musketeers have a highly efficient offense. They can hit enough shots to be in it at the end.
Thursday's Sweet 16 record: 2-2
Tournament to date: 25-30
