Mad Bets: NFL Week 13 Prop Bets
Matt Gothard, Jared Quay & Matt Harmon debate a few prop bets for Week 13 of the 2020 NFL season.
Video Transcript
MATT GOTHARD: Welcome back to "Mad Bets," everybody. Week 13 is here, and so are some more fantasy propettes. We have our fantasy expert, Matt Harmon, joining along with our betting guy, Jared Quay. We're here to go through a couple-- actually, three, to be specific-- NFL propettes. So starting off, prop number one, which team will have more rushing yards this week-- the Cleveland Browns or the Tennessee Titans? Let's go with Jared first.
JARED QUAY: I would like to clarify-- betting guru, not betting guy. [INAUDIBLE] And the reason why I'm saying that is because it's easy money here, man. Derrick Henry only gets better as they go. I think Ryan Tannehill will have some play action. And if the Titans can get a lead, which I do believe they will, I think that this is an easy field day for Derrick Henry to just eat, eat, and eat, like he's Ezekiel Elliott, even though he's Derrick Henry, the leading rusher in the NFL. It's easy.
MATT GOTHARD: All right. Well, from our betting guru to our fantasy guru, Harmon, do you agree Jared?
MATT HARMON: Yeah. Jared, don't disrespect Derrick Henry by comparing him to Ezekiel Elliott, when Derrick Henry's a clear better player at this point in their career. Give me a break. No, but I love this prop, though, for real, because obviously, these two teams are 1 and 2 in terms of total rushing yards. Neither one of these is a great rush defense, nor is either one of them a cupcake rush defense, so it's a great prop.
But in the end of the day, I completely agree with what Jared said. I'm going to go with the team that I think is the far superior overall team in the Tennessee Titans. I think they win this game outright. I think they control this action. Not only are they a great rushing team-- they're a great offense. I feel like we have to start giving the Titans more respect as a clear top five offense in the NFL.
That's how efficient they are. They have the better passing game, which is only going to set up more opportunities for them to get that lead and be able to establish a run-- no disrespect to the Browns, because like I said, they have the most rushing yards in the NFL. 200 for Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb is like a weekly routine. But Derrick Henry doesn't need any help. He could do it all on his own.
MATT GOTHARD: It's a bad thing for me when I'm going against both gurus. I'm taking the Browns on this one. They got some injuries in the secondary. I think the Titans will be able to pass it more on this one, and especially if they're going to sell out against the run. I'd like the Browns to possibly rush for more yards in this one. All right, second prop-- over or under 100 receiving yards for Tyreek Hill against the Broncos this weekend. Matt--
MATT HARMON: I don't like to go against anything Chiefs-related, but I'm going to go under on this one. Look, the strength of the Denver Broncos defense is their pass defense. They're a good unit overall. They rush the passer well. They cover well in the back end. The way you want to attack the Denver Broncos is you want to run on them and you want to hit him with short passes with the tight end.
Obviously, we know that Tyreek Hill-- he had the monster game last week. I could easily see this being a Kelsey type of game. I can easily see Tyreek with a touchdown and 95 yards, but I'm just going to go with the under on this one, because I think the smart way to attack the Broncos defense is probably not trying to hit him with deep passes over the top.
MATT GOTHARD: All right, Quay, are you taking over?
JARED QUAY: I don't like to agree with Harmon because I feel like we need to be competing, because I want to win and he needs to lose, but he's right. He's going under.
MATT HARMON: Of course, I'm right.
JARED QUAY: He's only had three games over 100 this season. They were monster games, the last three games. But AJ Bouye is a wonderful defender and a friend of mine for the Broncos, and I just don't think he's going to have the same kind of field day he had against the Buccaneers against the Broncos. And so yeah, 100 yards is a lot. That's not easy. Yes, he has done it, but I feel like that's a superior game, and I just don't think he's going to do it consecutively. Like Harmon said, he may get 88, may get 87, may get 95, but he's not getting 100.
MATT GOTHARD: Quay, you're biased. I can tell you're biased. You're using your friendship in telling people to take a bet. No, even as the producer of this segment, I wanted to take the over so we're not all on the under, but when you add up the math, it's really hard to see Tyreek getting over 100 yards against this Broncos defense. So I'll take it under. It's a sweep there.
Last, but not least, Deshaun Watson versus Philip Rivers-- who's going to get more total touchdowns in their match-up this weekend? Jared, let's start with you, AFC South guru.
JARED QUAY: This is not even a question. Deshaun Watson runs the ball, throws the ball, and he's their entire offense. Obviously, the suspension of Will Fuller could hurt him, but he doesn't had much to work with this whole year and he's still doing it. Meanwhile, Colts have amazing run stop defense, but their pass defense is where they're susceptible at, so he will be able to throw the ball. And I just feel like Philip Rivers is getting old. [INAUDIBLE] couple of touchdowns at the goal line. Anyways, so let's go Watson, baby-- the second highest paid player in the NFL.
MATT GOTHARD: All right, Harmon, do you think Fuller impacts this at all, or do you like Watson too? The loss of Will Fuller makes our offense worse. There's no doubt about it. He was having a difference maker type of year. But I'm going to ride right along with my not friend, but workplace proximity associate-- well, I guess no one-- we're not in any sort of proximity anymore-- but company employee fellow, Yahoo Sports employee, Jared Quay-- not a friend, though.
But I'm going to ride with him on this one too. We're three for three together, Jared, this week. Deshaun Watson is the bet here because he's cooking right now. I think he can still elevate guys like Brandin Cooks and Keke Coutee. It doesn't matter who's around him. Watson is playing like not just a top paid player in the NFL-- he's playing like one of the three best quarterbacks on balance this year.
And I agree with what Jared said. The pass defense is where you want to hit the Colts. And frankly, it doesn't even matter. The Houston Texans in Football Outsiders's DVOA metrics are the worst team establishing the run this year. They can't run the ball at all. It's all on Watson's shoulders. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, we know that they want Philip Rivers to be a caretaker. He's also nursing an injury, which was clearly a problem for him last week. I think it doesn't matter, Will Fuller or not. This is still-- Watson, the total touchdown bet, is the easy one here.
MATT GOTHARD: I don't know if I feel unlucky because it's week 13 or it's because you guys are agreeing on everything. Both of those just don't seem to be right here. I'm going with Rivers because, like you said, Matt, the Texans have one of the worst rushing offenses in the league, and I don't think they're actually going to be in scoring position that often in this game.
So I think even one touchdown-- no, two touchdowns will get it done for Philip Rivers in this one. Obviously, I'm probably in some trouble if I'm going against both of the experts in this. Matt Harmon, thank you so much for stopping by. Check him out on FFL every Sunday morning. You can also check out Jared Quay on FFL giving out some betting advice.
- If you want in on the action, head over to betmgm.com/yahoo, where new users get 100% match up to $1,000-- available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia.
